POR
42-40
SA
62-20
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Portland Trail Blazers, 114–95.
SA -10.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
POR · top performer
Sidy Cissoko
G · #91
11
Pts
4
Reb
0
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
17
Pts
14
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 7 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 2-2 | -22 | 8 | 2 | |
| 32 | 22 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 7-11 | -20 | 3 | 3 | |
| 27 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-7 | — | -9 | 5 | 6 | |
| 40 | 8 | 3-14 | 1-6 | 1-1 | -22 | 6 | 7 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -19 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 12 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 7-8 | +3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 11 | 5-10 | 1-3 | — | -4 | 7 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-5 | — | -5 | 1 | 2 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 11 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 1-1 | +9 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 95 | 33-94 | 11-47 | 18-23 | 38 | 24 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 19 | 6-9 | 5-7 | 2-3 | +10 | 7 | 3 | |
| 34 | 17 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 6-6 | +20 | 14 | 3 | |
| 34 | 21 | 8-14 | 2-5 | 3-4 | +26 | 3 | 9 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 2-2 | +22 | 1 | 2 | |
| 33 | 15 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | +12 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0-2 | +2 | 5 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2-2 | — | 1-1 | -1 | 3 | 3 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 17 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 4-5 | +4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 114 | 41-75 | 12-30 | 20-29 | 42 | 27 | ||
| DNP: M. Plumlee | ||||||||
DNP: M. Plumlee
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
55
24
Ast
27
Playoff series
SA wins series 4-1
POR98@SA111POR106@SA103SA120@POR108SA114@POR93POR95@SA114todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -10.5
Half-pt above key 10
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR+42519%SA-57585%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 99 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
10.5
0.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 10:28
PORS. Cissoko
GGame leader · 20 min
11 PTS · 4 REB · 0 AST
SAV. Wembanyama
FGame leader · 34 minDouble-double
17 PTS · 14 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
SA beat POR 114-95. V. Wembanyama led with 17 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-24 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
52 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 28
Bench(9)
43 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST
GS 36
SAstarters 72% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 28 REB · 22 AST
GS 70
Bench(9)
32 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
GS 26
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDonovan Clingan · misses alley oop layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 24 | 21 | 20 | 30 | 95 |
| SA | 36 | 29 | 21 | 28 | 114 |
Period scoring
POR won 1 · SA won 3
Q1
Avdija 6
Champagnie 11
Q2
Avdija 8
Harper 7
Q3
Grant 7
Castle 6
Q4
Cissoko 9
Fox 13
Shooting comparison
35%
33-94
FG
55%
41-75
23%
11-47
3PT
40%
12-30
78%
18-23
FT
69%
20-29
Play-by-play · 512 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·18.0
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·26.5
Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·36.9
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·38.7
Lindy Waters III misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·53.4
Lindy Waters III defensive rebound
·
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·56.0
Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:03
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:06
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:06
Spurs offensive team rebound
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:06
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:06
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:06
Kris Murray personal take foul
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Blake Wesley enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Kris Murray enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Carter Bryant enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
· ·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:11
Dylan Harper personal foul
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:15
Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)
·
POR 94·SA 114
- Q4·1:33
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 94·SA 111
- Q4·1:33
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 93·SA 111
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
SA
Home
33-94
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-75
35
FG %
55
11-47
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-30
18-23
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-29
24
Assists
27
9
Turnovers
14
Betting line
SA -10.5·O/U 219.5·POR +425/SA -575
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299+- Victor WembanyamaSA · FCONT11.999+
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.697
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.896
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.1%
ensemble · SA favored
Elo Static
63.1%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
66.9%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
58.1%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
3.60 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
76% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+425
Close price
+425
Open no-vig
18.3%
Close no-vig
18.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
Player projections
SA vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
180
projections · 160 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.2± 4.8high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Victor WembanyamaSA9.9± 3.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
- Damian LillardPOR6.1± 3.2high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA3.0± 1.1high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Toumani CamaraPOR1.4± 1.4high
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.4± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
SA
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.3%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
114.6
PPG
114.9
▶118.2
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.3
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8