Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at SA?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19SA

POR

42-40

95114

62-20

NBATue, Apr 28FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-1VegasSA -10.5

POR · top performer

Sidy Cissoko

G · #91

11.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

22.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 1st Quarter · 10:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	33	7	2-10	1-7	2-2	-22	8	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	32	22	7-15	1-6	7-11	-20	3	3
D. ClinganC · #23	27	10	4-11	2-7	—	-9	5	6
J. HolidayG · #5	40	8	3-14	1-6	1-1	-22	6	7
S. HendersonG · #00	17	5	2-6	1-2	—	-19	2	0
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	17	12	2-6	1-2	7-8	+3	1	1
K. MurrayF · #24	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	17	11	5-10	1-3	—	-4	7	1
Y. HansenC · #16	1	0	0-2	0-2	—	0	0	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	15	2	1-6	0-5	—	-5	1	2
V. KrejciG · #27	13	2	1-3	0-2	—	+1	1	2
B. WesleyG · #1	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
S. SharpeG · #17	6	5	2-5	1-2	—	-7	0	0
S. CissokoG · #91	20	11	4-6	2-3	1-1	+9	4	0
Team		95	33-94	11-47	18-23		38	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	30	19	6-9	5-7	2-3	+10	7	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	34	17	5-7	1-2	6-6	+20	14	3
D. FoxG · #4	34	21	8-14	2-5	3-4	+26	3	9
D. VassellG · #24	34	10	4-11	0-4	2-2	+22	1	2
S. CastleG · #5	33	15	6-11	2-6	1-2	+12	3	5
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	13	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	0	1	0
K. OlynykF · #8	1	0	—	—	0-2	0	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	18	7	3-8	1-2	0-2	+2	5	1
C. BryantF · #11	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	13	5	2-2	—	1-1	-1	3	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	26	17	6-9	1-1	4-5	+4	3	1
Team		114	41-75	12-30	20-29		42	27
DNP: M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

Home

33-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-75

FG %

11-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-30

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-1

Apr 20

POR98@

SA111

Apr 22

POR106@

SA103

Apr 25

SA120@

POR108

Apr 26

SA114@

POR93

Apr 29

POR95@

SA114today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+42519%

SA-57585%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -10.5↗SpreadBet SA -10.5↗

Line movement · 129 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat POR 114-95. V. Wembanyama led with 17 PTS, 14 REB, 3 AST. SA outscored the other side 36-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 28

Bench(9)

43 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 36

SAstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 28 REB · 22 AST

GS 70

Bench(9)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR1st Quarter · 10:28 · 2-4

+7pp→ 15% WP

Donovan Clingan · misses alley oop layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	24	21	20	30	95
SA	36	29	21	28	114

Period scoring

POR won 1 · SA won 3

Avdija 6

Champagnie 11

Avdija 8

Harper 7

Grant 7

Castle 6

Cissoko 9

Fox 13

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

35%

33-94

55%

41-75

23%

11-47

3PT

40%

12-30

78%

18-23

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·18.0
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·26.5
Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point jumper
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·36.9
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·38.7
Lindy Waters III misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
·
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·53.4
Lindy Waters III defensive rebound
·
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·56.0
Yang Hansen misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:03
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:06
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:06
Spurs offensive team rebound
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:06
Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:06
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:06
Kris Murray personal take foul
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 95·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Blake Wesley enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Kris Murray enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Carter Bryant enters the game for Dylan Harper
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
· ·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Trail Blazers offensive team rebound
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Deni Avdija misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:11
Dylan Harper personal foul
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:15
Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)
·
POR 94·SA 114
Q4·1:33
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 94·SA 111
Q4·1:33
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 93·SA 111

Betting line

SA -10.5·O/U 219.5·POR +425/SA -575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Portland Trail Blazers, 114–95.

SA -10.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
63.1%
P(SA win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
62.6%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
58.1%
P(SA win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.23 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+425

Close price

+425

Open no-vig

18.3%

Close no-vig

18.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in POR at SA?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SA vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high
Damian LillardPOR
19.2± 8.2high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Branden CarlsonPOR
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Team pages

Portland Trail BlazersSan Antonio Spurs

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR