Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BOS?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16PHI

PHI

45-37

11397

BOS

56-26

NBATue, Apr 28FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBOS -10.5

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

24.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jayson Tatum

F · #0

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 20pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	43	16	6-13	4-9	—	+19	9	7
J. EmbiidC · #21	39	33	12-23	0-5	9-10	+13	4	8
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	32	4	2-5	0-2	0-1	+7	6	1
T. MaxeyG · #0	43	25	10-18	3-10	2-2	+15	10	5
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	10	3-8	3-6	1-2	+9	7	3
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
J. WalkerF · #33	2	0	0-2	0-2	—	+1	0	0
D. TerryF · #14	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
D. BarlowF · #25	6	2	—	—	2-2	-7	3	0
A. DrummondC · #1	7	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+2	4	0
A. BonaC · #30	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
K. LowryG · #7	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	24	18	5-8	4-7	4-4	+18	2	0
Team		113	39-78	15-42	20-23		47	24
DNP: J. Broome, J. Edwards

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	41	24	8-19	4-12	4-7	-9	16	4
S. HauserF · #30	20	8	3-7	2-5	—	-21	5	0
N. QuetaC · #88	26	8	4-8	—	0-2	-10	14	1
D. WhiteG · #9	36	6	2-8	0-4	2-2	-14	1	3
J. BrownG · #7	41	22	9-23	1-4	3-5	-17	5	5
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	2	1	0-1	—	1-2	-1	1	0
N. VucevicC · #4	15	8	3-6	2-5	—	-10	2	3
L. GarzaC · #52	6	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+5	0	1
P. PritchardG · #11	26	12	5-10	1-5	1-1	+8	2	6
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	2	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	9	3	1-2	1-2	—	-3	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	16	1	0-2	0-1	1-2	-2	3	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	2	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		97	36-89	11-39	14-23		49	25
DNP: D. Banton, M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

39-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-89

FG %

15-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-39

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

BOS leads series 3-2

Apr 19

PHI91@

BOS123

Apr 21

PHI111@

BOS97

Apr 24

BOS108@

PHI100

Apr 26

BOS128@

PHI96

Apr 28

PHI113@

BOS97today

May 1

BOS93@

PHI106

May 2

PHI109@

BOS100

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+34023%

BOS-44081%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 169 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 113-97. J. Embiid paced them with 33 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. PHI outscored the other side 28-11 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 36 REB · 24 AST

GS 74

Bench(8)

25 PTS · 11 REB · 0 AST

GS 22

BOSstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 41 REB · 13 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

29 PTS · 8 REB · 12 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS3rd Quarter · 3:21 · 70-78

+20pp→ 91% WP

Tyrese Maxey · lost ball turnover (Jayson Tatum steals)

BOS4th Quarter · 7:03 · 97-94

+13pp→ 52% WP

Quentin Grimes · shooting foul

PHI4th Quarter · 5:58 · 100-94

+13pp→ 75% WP

Quentin Grimes · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	21	29	35	28	113
BOS	23	34	29	11	97

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · BOS won 2

Maxey 8

Brown 6

Embiid 13

Tatum 10

Embiid 10

Tatum 10

Embiid 8

White 8

PHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

PHI

BOS

50%

39-78

40%

36-89

36%

15-42

3PT

28%

11-39

87%

20-23

61%

14-23

Play-by-play · 451 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·0.4
shot clock turnover
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·23.2
Kyle Lowry defensive rebound
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·24.4
Amari Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·24.4
Amari Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 113·BOS 97
Q4·24.4
Kyle Lowry shooting foul
PHI 113·BOS 96
Q4·24.4
Amari Williams offensive rebound
PHI 113·BOS 96
Q4·25.4
Amari Williams misses layup
PHI 113·BOS 96
Q4·40.0
Dominick Barlow makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 113·BOS 96
Q4·40.0
Dominick Barlow makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 112·BOS 96
Q4·40.0
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·40.0
Dominick Barlow offensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·41.2
Jabari Walker misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:01
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:06
Baylor Scheierman misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:16
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:20
Jabari Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Jabari Walker enters the game for Andre Drummond
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Dominick Barlow enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Dalen Terry enters the game for Paul George
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Trendon Watford enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Kyle Lowry enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
Amari Williams enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:33
76ers Full timeout
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:40
Andre Drummond defensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:41
Neemias Queta misses tip shot
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:41
Neemias Queta offensive rebound
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:42
Ron Harper Jr. misses driving layup
PHI 111·BOS 96
Q4·1:50
Tyrese Maxey makes 16-foot fade away jump shot
PHI 111·BOS 96

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 214.5·PHI +340/BOS -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 113–97.

PHI +10.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(BOS win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
56.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
49.8%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

2.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

82% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+340

Close price

+340

Open no-vig

21.8%

Close no-vig

21.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at BOS?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

LeBron JamesPHI
7.2± 2.6high
Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Paul GeorgeBOS
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high
LeBron JamesPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

BOS

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

24.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Team pages

Philadelphia 76ersBoston Celtics

Elsewhere in the NBA

Data via ESPN · hoopR