NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DAL

DAL

22-44

120112

MEM

23-42

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesMEM wins series 3-1VegasDAL -5.5

DAL · top performer

Khris Middleton

F · #20

31.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

Jaylen Wells

F · #0

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 11:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	27	22	9-12	—	4-7	+6	14	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	28	12	5-12	0-3	2-2	+2	10	1
N. MarshallF · #13	23	5	2-7	0-3	1-2	-1	6	3
C. FlaggF · #32	33	13	6-16	0-3	1-2	+11	6	7
M. ChristieG · #00	25	13	5-12	3-8	—	+8	0	0
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	25	35	10-17	8-10	7-7	+21	2	1
D. PowellF · #7	2	0	—	—	—	-6	0	1
C. MartinF · #16	15	2	1-3	0-1	—	-1	3	1
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	19	6	3-5	0-1	—	+6	9	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	28	12	4-8	0-3	4-4	-5	8	5
R. NembhardG · #9	13	0	0-1	—	—	+5	2	5
A. JohnsonG · #8	2	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
Team		120	45-93	11-32	19-24		60	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	27	9	4-13	1-8	0-3	-16	8	2
G. JacksonF · #45	31	20	8-15	1-6	3-5	+3	4	3
J. WellsF · #0	32	23	7-15	3-7	6-6	-19	2	2
J. SmallG · #10	28	19	6-12	3-6	4-4	+2	2	9
R. RupertG · #32	38	13	5-11	1-4	2-2	-19	7	2
Bench
T. BurtonF · #5	29	3	1-9	1-7	—	-1	1	0
T. HendricksF · #22	24	17	7-12	3-6	—	+5	10	2
J. MashackG · #21	31	8	3-11	1-4	1-2	+5	4	6
Team		112	41-98	14-48	16-22		38	26
DNP: B. Clarke, C. Coward, C. Spencer, W. Clayton Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

45-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-98

FG %

11-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-48

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM wins series 3-1

Nov 8

DAL104@

MEM118

Nov 23

MEM102@

DAL96

Feb 28

MEM124@

DAL105

Mar 13

DAL120@

MEM112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-21869%

MEM+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗SpreadBet DAL -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat MEM 120-112. K. Middleton led the way with 35 points and 2 rebounds. DAL outscored the other side 34-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 36 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

55 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 60

MEMstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 23 REB · 18 AST

GS 67

Bench(3)

28 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM3rd Quarter · 1:05 · 84-82

+8pp→ 49% WP

Brandon Williams · shooting foul

DAL3rd Quarter · 2.4 · 84-84

+7pp→ 61% WP

Tyler Burton · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 11:45 · 89-84

+11pp→ 72% WP

Khris Middleton · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	34	31	21	34	120
MEM	22	32	30	28	112

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · MEM won 2

Middleton 9

Rupert 6

Gafford 12

Wells 16

Christie 5

Hendricks 7

Middleton 22

Wells 6

DAL

MEM

Shooting comparison

DAL

MEM

48%

45-93

42%

41-98

34%

11-32

3PT

29%

14-48

79%

19-24

73%

16-22

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 120·MEM 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 120·MEM 112
Q4·7.1
Javon Small makes 25-foot three pointer (Taylor Hendricks assists)
·
DAL 120·MEM 112
Q4·12.2
Taylor Hendricks offensive rebound
DAL 120·MEM 109
Q4·12.2
GG Jackson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 120·MEM 109
Q4·22.0
Brandon Williams makes 2-foot two point shot (Dwight Powell assists)
·
DAL 120·MEM 109
Q4·43.5
Taylor Hendricks makes 23-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)
·
DAL 118·MEM 109
Q4·53.5
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
DAL 118·MEM 106
Q4·53.5
Ryan Nembhard out of bounds bad pass turnover
DAL 118·MEM 106
Q4·1:06
GG Jackson makes two point shot
DAL 118·MEM 106
Q4·1:06
GG Jackson offensive rebound
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:09
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:09
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:09
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:09
Dwight Powell shooting foul
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:09
Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:11
Jahmai Mashack misses two point shot
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:16
Brandon Williams lost ball turnover (Javon Small steals)
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:34
GG Jackson lost ball turnover (Brandon Williams steals)
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
(01:44) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Caleb Martin enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
AJ Johnson enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Ryan Nembhard enters the game for P.J. Washington
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Dwight Powell enters the game for Khris Middleton
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
GG Jackson enters the game for Rayan Rupert
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Javon Small enters the game for Tyler Burton
·
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Grizzlies Full timeout
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·1:44
Khris Middleton makes 24-foot three pointer
DAL 118·MEM 104
Q4·2:06
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
DAL 115·MEM 104
Q4·2:10
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 25-foot three point jumper
DAL 115·MEM 104

Betting line

DAL -5.5·O/U 239.5·DAL -218/MEM +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 120–112.

DAL -5.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

MEM

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.7

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.8

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR