NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16TOR

TOR

40-31

143127

UTAH

21-51

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasTOR -8.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Ace Bailey

G · #19

31.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	32	23	9-14	3-6	2-4	+25	4	2
R. BarrettF · #9	25	27	10-15	4-5	3-7	+18	2	6
S. BarnesF · #4	27	20	8-10	1-2	3-3	+16	7	10
J. SheadG · #23	29	7	2-6	1-4	2-2	+29	1	14
J. WalterG · #14	28	21	7-10	6-8	1-1	+27	5	2
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	7	0	—	—	0-4	-15	1	0
J. BattleF · #77	23	17	6-9	4-7	1-2	-3	4	2
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	17	9	3-5	—	3-5	+9	4	1
J. MogboF · #2	9	4	2-2	—	—	-8	4	1
M. FultzG · #20	16	2	1-5	—	—	-15	0	5
G. DickG · #1	28	13	6-12	1-5	—	-3	3	6
Team		143	54-88	20-37	15-28		35	49
DNP: B. Ingram, G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	30	6	2-10	1-6	1-2	+6	8	4
J. KoncharG · #55	23	19	4-5	3-4	8-8	-13	3	1
E. HarklessG · #16	32	9	2-7	0-4	5-8	-1	2	4
A. BaileyG · #19	35	37	11-21	7-10	8-8	-8	6	3
B. MbengG · #3	31	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	-34	3	1
Bench
B. SensabaughF · #28	31	24	9-19	1-9	5-5	-6	5	1
O. TshiebweC · #34	28	16	6-8	—	4-6	-4	7	2
K. ChandlerG · #0	29	13	4-10	1-2	4-4	-20	5	9
Team		127	39-83	13-36	36-43		39	25
DNP: K. Love, C. Williams, S. Mykhailiuk, I. Collier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

54-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-83

FG %

20-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

15-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

36-43

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Feb 1

UTAH100@

TOR107

Mar 24

TOR143@

UTAH127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-39580%

UTAH+31024%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗SpreadBet TOR -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat UTAH 143-127. R. Barrett paced them with 27 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. TOR outscored the other side 49-30 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 19 REB · 34 AST

GS 98

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST

GS 39

UTAHstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

53 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH2nd Quarter · 6:32 · 46-37

+10pp→ 11% WP

Kennedy Chandler · misses driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	31	37	49	26	143
UTAH	25	33	30	39	127

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · UTAH won 1

Barnes 7

Konchar 8

Mamukelashvili 10

Bailey 13

Barrett 18

Harkless 31

Battle 6

Sensabaugh 10

TOR

UTAH

Shooting comparison

TOR

UTAH

61%

54-88

47%

39-83

54%

20-37

3PT

36%

13-36

54%

15-28

84%

36-43

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 143·UTAH 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 143·UTAH 127
Q4·3.6
Oscar Tshiebwe makes 5-foot two point shot
TOR 143·UTAH 127
Q4·5.0
Oscar Tshiebwe offensive rebound
TOR 143·UTAH 125
Q4·8.1
Ace Bailey misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 143·UTAH 125
Q4·15.6
Gradey Dick makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamison Battle assists)
·
TOR 143·UTAH 125
Q4·37.0
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·40.6
Kyle Filipowski misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·51.1
Jazz defensive team rebound
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·53.1
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·53.1
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·53.1
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·53.1
Oscar Tshiebwe shooting foul
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·1:11
Raptors defensive team rebound
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·1:13
Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·1:23
Jamal Shead makes 36-foot three point shot (Gradey Dick assists)
·
TOR 140·UTAH 125
Q4·1:33
(01:33) [Raptors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Raptors] retain their timeout
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:33
Raptors Coach's Challenge
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:47
Jamal Shead enters the game for Markelle Fultz
·
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:47
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:47
(01:47) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:48
Ace Bailey makes 23-foot running jump shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)
·
TOR 137·UTAH 125
Q4·1:52
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
TOR 137·UTAH 122
Q4·1:55
Markelle Fultz misses 15-foot jumper
TOR 137·UTAH 122
Q4·2:15
Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer
TOR 137·UTAH 122
Q4·2:22
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
TOR 137·UTAH 119
Q4·2:24
Jamison Battle misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 137·UTAH 119
Q4·2:37
Oscar Tshiebwe makes running layup
TOR 137·UTAH 119
Q4·2:40
Jamison Battle bad pass turnover (Oscar Tshiebwe steals)
·
TOR 137·UTAH 117
Q4·2:51
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 137·UTAH 117

Betting line

TOR -8.5·O/U 230.5·TOR -395/UTAH +310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 143–127.

TOR -8.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 39.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Bez MbengUTAH · G
DEFL3.998
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

UTAH

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

29.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR