NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25SA

54-18

136111

MIA

38-34

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -3.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Tyler Herro

G · #14

14.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	22	3	1-4	0-3	1-1	+22	5	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	26	11-22	1-7	3-3	+19	15	4
D. FoxG · #4	29	14	5-13	1-4	3-3	+24	3	6
D. VassellG · #24	21	6	2-6	1-4	1-1	+12	2	4
S. CastleG · #5	23	19	4-9	2-4	9-10	+20	7	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	22	13	4-8	4-7	1-2	+12	3	1
K. OlynykF · #8	3	2	1-1	—	—	-5	1	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	21	7-14	3-6	4-4	+12	6	1
C. BryantF · #11	18	6	3-6	0-3	—	+4	8	3
B. BiyomboC · #18	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	19	5	1-4	—	3-4	+12	8	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	1
D. HarperG · #2	25	21	9-14	3-5	—	+8	4	6
Team		136	48-101	15-43	25-28		62	33
DNP: M. Plumlee

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	20	9	4-7	1-3	—	-18	3	1
B. AdebayoC · #13	29	18	5-17	2-10	6-6	-26	3	4
D. MitchellG · #45	22	2	1-4	0-2	—	-10	2	3
T. HerroG · #14	26	18	6-11	2-6	4-4	-19	5	2
P. LarssonG · #9	23	7	2-6	0-1	3-3	-23	1	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	6	0	—	—	—	-1	2	1
M. GardnerF · #15	18	9	3-7	2-6	1-1	+3	2	0
K. JohnsonF · #16	3	4	1-1	—	2-2	+5	1	1
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	19	8	3-8	2-4	—	-13	2	6
K. WareC · #7	22	7	3-10	1-6	—	-3	7	1
N. PowellG · #24	30	21	7-18	4-11	3-4	-17	4	2
K. JakucionisG · #25	22	8	3-6	2-3	—	-3	6	5
Team		111	38-95	16-52	19-20		38	29
DNP: N. Jovic, D. Smith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

48-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-95

FG %

15-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-52

25-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Oct 31

MIA101@

SA107

Mar 23

SA136@

MIA111today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-15561%

MIA+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -3.5↗SpreadBet SA -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat MIA 136-111. V. Wembanyama paced them with 26 PTS, 15 REB, 4 AST. SA outscored the other side 38-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 61

Bench(9)

68 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 62

MIAstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 47

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	38	38	32	28	136
MIA	31	27	23	30	111

Period scoring

SA won 3 · MIA won 1

Fox 10

Adebayo 8

Wembanyama 11

Powell 8

Wembanyama 7

Adebayo 11

Harper 7

Powell 10

MIA

Shooting comparison

MIA

48%

48-101

40%

38-95

35%

15-43

3PT

31%

16-52

89%

25-28

95%

19-20

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 136·MIA 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 136·MIA 111
Q4·0.1
Heat offensive team rebound
SA 136·MIA 111
Q4·1.3
Myron Gardner misses heave jump shot
SA 136·MIA 111
Q4·1.7
Kelly Olynyk makes layup (Carter Bryant assists)
·
SA 136·MIA 111
Q4·16.4
Keshad Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk (Simone Fontecchio assists)
· ·
SA 134·MIA 111
Q4·20.3
Carter Bryant lost ball turnover (Simone Fontecchio steals)
·
SA 134·MIA 109
Q4·41.8
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
SA 134·MIA 109
Q4·41.8
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
·
SA 134·MIA 108
Q4·41.8
Carter Bryant shooting foul
SA 134·MIA 107
Q4·45.8
Carter Bryant lost ball turnover (Kasparas Jakucionis steals)
·
SA 134·MIA 107
Q4·1:05
Myron Gardner makes free throw 1 of 1
SA 134·MIA 107
Q4·1:05
Carter Bryant shooting foul
SA 134·MIA 106
Q4·1:05
Myron Gardner makes 9-foot two point shot (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
SA 134·MIA 106
Q4·1:15
Kelly Olynyk traveling turnover
SA 134·MIA 104
Q4·1:25
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
SA 134·MIA 104
Q4·1:25
Kel'el Ware misses layup
SA 134·MIA 104
Q4·1:38
Carter Bryant makes driving dunk (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
SA 134·MIA 104
Q4·1:54
Simone Fontecchio lost ball turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)
·
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·1:55
Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·2:00
Myron Gardner misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·2:06
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·2:10
Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·2:36
Kel'el Ware makes 12-foot two point shot (Keshad Johnson assists)
· ·
SA 132·MIA 104
Q4·2:39
Keshad Johnson offensive rebound
·
SA 132·MIA 102
Q4·2:39
Kasparas Jakucionis misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 132·MIA 102
Q4·2:43
Carter Bryant bad pass turnover (Myron Gardner steals)
·
SA 132·MIA 102
Q4·2:44
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 132·MIA 102
Q4·2:47
Kel'el Ware misses 26-foot three point jumper
SA 132·MIA 102
Q4·2:52
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Harrison Barnes
·
SA 132·MIA 102

Betting line

SA -3.5·O/U 244.5·SA -155/MIA +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Miami Heat and beat them, 136–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -3.5 cashed (won by 25). Total cleared the 244.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high
Norman PowellMIA
18.4± 5.3high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Bobby PortisMIA
6.2± 2.9high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high

Blocks

Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Bam AdebayoMIA
0.6± 0.7high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIA

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.8%

118.2

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR