NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+39ATL

MEM

24-47

107146

ATL

40-32

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasATL -13.5

MEM · top performer

Tyler Burton

F · #5

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ ATL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	25	8	2-7	0-1	4-6	-14	3	1
G. JacksonF · #45	30	26	9-14	2-5	6-6	-8	3	0
J. WellsF · #0	20	4	2-4	0-1	—	-20	2	2
T. JeromeG · #2	24	17	6-15	3-7	2-2	-13	1	4
R. RupertG · #32	30	0	0-3	0-1	—	-26	5	2
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	6	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	0
T. BurtonF · #5	28	20	6-11	1-4	7-7	-17	8	1
T. HendricksF · #22	26	9	3-9	3-9	—	-29	4	0
D. JarreauG · #77	22	7	3-6	1-3	—	-19	6	4
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	28	16	4-13	4-12	4-5	-37	1	6
Team		107	35-83	14-43	23-26		34	20
DNP: B. Clarke, C. Spencer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	20	16	5-7	0-2	6-8	+23	5	2
M. GueyeF · #18	22	3	1-4	1-4	—	+12	4	3
C. McCollumG · #3	22	15	5-11	3-5	2-2	+31	4	9
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	26	26	8-11	4-6	6-6	+29	2	6
D. DanielsG · #5	24	12	5-8	2-3	—	+27	5	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	16	11	4-9	3-6	—	+6	1	1
J. KumingaF · #0	20	16	5-7	4-6	2-2	+21	5	3
Z. RisacherF · #10	26	11	4-8	1-3	2-2	+18	8	0
J. LandaleC · #31	21	11	5-10	1-4	—	+14	4	2
C. KolokoC · #35	7	2	1-3	0-2	—	+4	1	1
B. HieldG · #8	7	3	0-1	0-1	3-3	+4	2	1
G. VincentG · #4	16	5	1-4	1-3	2-2	+4	2	2
K. WallaceG · #2	8	9	3-4	3-4	—	-2	1	2
C. HoustanG · #33	7	6	2-5	2-5	—	+4	0	1
Team		146	49-92	25-54	23-25		44	37

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

35-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-92

FG %

14-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

25-54

23-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Jan 22

ATL124@

MEM122

Mar 23

MEM107@

ATL146today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+60014%

ATL-90090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗SpreadBet ATL -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MEM 146-107. N. Alexander-Walker paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 45-29 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 14 REB · 9 AST

GS 34

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 37

ATLstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 20 REB · 24 AST

GS 78

Bench(9)

74 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 64

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	22	24	29	32	107
ATL	32	39	45	30	146

Period scoring

MEM won 1 · ATL won 3

Burton 8

Alexander-Walker 13

Jr. 8

Kispert 9

Jackson 8

Jr. 31

Jackson 14

Wallace 9

MEM

ATL

Shooting comparison

MEM

ATL

42%

35-83

53%

49-92

33%

14-43

3PT

46%

25-54

88%

23-26

92%

23-25

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·21.5
Hawks defensive team rebound
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·23.6
GG Jackson misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·29.5
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·35.0
Christian Koloko misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·49.1
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·52.2
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 22-foot running jump shot
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·56.8
Tyler Burton defensive rebound
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·58.3
Buddy Hield misses 24-foot three point jumper
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·1:09
GG Jackson makes 26-foot three pointer (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
MEM 107·ATL 146
Q4·1:17
Keaton Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Koloko assists)
·
MEM 104·ATL 146
Q4·1:36
Tyler Burton makes 25-foot running jump shot (Rayan Rupert assists)
·
MEM 104·ATL 143
Q4·1:39
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
MEM 101·ATL 143
Q4·1:43
Christian Koloko misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 101·ATL 143
Q4·1:54
GG Jackson makes 1-foot reverse layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
MEM 101·ATL 143
Q4·1:56
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 99·ATL 143
Q4·1:57
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses driving layup
MEM 99·ATL 143
Q4·2:05
Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot running jump shot (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
MEM 99·ATL 143
Q4·2:08
Christian Koloko defensive rebound
MEM 99·ATL 140
Q4·2:11
GG Jackson misses driving layup
MEM 99·ATL 140
Q4·2:26
Christian Koloko makes running dunk (Caleb Houstan assists)
·
MEM 99·ATL 140
Q4·2:32
Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass turnover (Zaccharie Risacher steals)
·
MEM 99·ATL 138
Q4·2:38
Tyler Burton defensive rebound
MEM 99·ATL 138
Q4·2:41
Caleb Houstan misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 99·ATL 138
Q4·2:57
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 99·ATL 138
Q4·2:57
(02:57) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MEM 98·ATL 138
Q4·2:57
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 98·ATL 138
Q4·2:57
Christian Koloko shooting foul
MEM 98·ATL 138
Q4·2:57
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer
MEM 98·ATL 138

Betting line

ATL -13.5·O/U 238.5·MEM +600/ATL -900

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Memphis Grizzlies, 146–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -13.5 cashed (won by 39). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
CJ McCollumATL · G
DRIVES10.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

ATL

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.7

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

27.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR