NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10MIN

MIN

44-28

10292

BOS

47-24

NBASun, Mar 22FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-0VegasBOS -10.5

MIN · top performer

Bones Hyland

G · #8

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 9:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	29	9	3-14	1-4	2-4	-4	9	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	33	19	8-18	3-7	—	-3	6	3
R. GobertC · #27	26	9	3-5	—	3-4	-10	14	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	31	8	3-9	2-7	—	+5	2	2
A. DosunmuG · #13	32	17	7-13	2-4	1-1	+8	8	6
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	16	6	3-5	—	—	+12	4	3
J. PhillipsF · #4	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
J. BeringerF · #19	1	0	0-1	—	—	-4	0	0
N. ReidC · #11	26	11	4-12	1-4	2-2	+26	7	0
J. ClarkG · #22	12	0	—	—	—	+6	3	2
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
B. HylandG · #8	29	23	8-14	3-7	4-4	+26	3	3
Z. PullinG · #15	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
Team		102	39-91	12-33	12-15		56	24
DNP: J. Ingles, M. Conley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	31	16	6-16	2-7	2-3	-4	11	2
S. HauserF · #30	19	2	1-4	0-3	—	-5	2	1
N. QuetaC · #88	27	4	2-5	—	—	-9	10	1
D. WhiteG · #9	36	15	6-15	1-5	2-2	-12	6	1
J. BrownG · #7	35	29	9-26	2-6	9-11	-8	7	4
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	17	5	2-7	1-3	—	-4	6	1
C. BasseyC · #99	2	2	1-2	—	—	+6	1	0
P. PritchardG · #11	27	10	4-11	2-6	—	-11	1	3
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	2	0	0-1	—	—	+6	1	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	29	5	2-4	1-2	—	-16	4	2
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	4	1-1	—	2-2	+6	1	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	14	0	0-3	0-1	—	+1	3	1
Team		92	34-95	9-33	15-18		53	17
DNP: A. Williams, J. Walsh

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

39-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-95

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-33

12-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 2-0

Nov 29

BOS115@

MIN119

Mar 23

MIN102@

BOS92today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+34023%

BOS-44081%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 102-92. B. Hyland led with 23 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. MIN outscored the other side 33-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 39 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Bench(8)

40 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 32

BOSstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 36 REB · 9 AST

GS 47

Bench(7)

26 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 9:05 · 83-81

+11pp→ 53% WP

Bones Hyland · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Clark assists)

MIN4th Quarter · 8:25 · 83-81

+9pp→ 70% WP

Hugo Gonzalez · shooting foul

MIN4th Quarter · 7:30 · 87-81

+9pp→ 86% WP

Neemias Queta · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	14	33	29	26	102
BOS	23	21	33	15	92

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · BOS won 2

Hyland 4

Brown 11

Hyland 10

White 7

McDaniels 15

Tatum 13

Reid 8

White 4

MIN

BOS

Shooting comparison

MIN

BOS

43%

39-91

36%

34-95

36%

12-33

3PT

27%

9-33

80%

12-15

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 102·BOS 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 102·BOS 92
Q4·20.5
Max Shulga makes free throw 2 of 2
MIN 102·BOS 92
Q4·20.5
Max Shulga makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 102·BOS 91
Q4·20.5
Zyon Pullin shooting foul
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·20.5
Max Shulga offensive rebound
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·20.5
Charles Bassey misses driving layup
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·21.9
Charles Bassey offensive rebound
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·24.8
Hugo Gonzalez misses 25-foot running jump shot
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·27.9
Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·29.6
Joan Beringer misses driving layup
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·51.9
Charles Bassey makes layup (Max Shulga assists)
·
MIN 102·BOS 90
Q4·1:02
Jaylen Clark bad pass turnover (Charles Bassey steals)
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Jaylen Clark enters the game for Julius Randle
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Julian Phillips enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Terrence Shannon Jr. enters the game for Naz Reid
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Joan Beringer enters the game for Bones Hyland
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Zyon Pullin enters the game for Jaden McDaniels
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:22
Max Shulga makes driving layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
MIN 102·BOS 88
Q4·1:25
Celtics offensive team rebound
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:28
Ayo Dosunmu blocks Ron Harper Jr. 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Charles Bassey enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Max Shulga enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Celtics Full timeout
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:45
Julius Randle makes running dunk (Jaden McDaniels assists)
·
MIN 102·BOS 86
Q4·1:46
Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound
MIN 100·BOS 86
Q4·1:49
Jaylen Brown misses two point shot
MIN 100·BOS 86

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 222.5·MIN +340/BOS -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 102–92.

MIN +10.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

BOS

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

47.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.5%

116.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR