NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15SA

IND

15-56

119134

53-18

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -16.5

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Keldon Johnson

F · #3

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ SA

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	29	14	6-14	0-2	2-3	-21	2	5
J. WalkerF · #5	35	21	8-10	5-7	—	-10	4	4
A. NembhardG · #2	28	25	8-13	2-4	7-9	-16	1	7
A. NesmithG · #23	25	5	2-7	1-3	—	-22	2	0
Q. JacksonG · #29	16	6	2-5	1-2	1-1	+1	4	2
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	19	11	5-10	0-5	1-1	-10	4	4
J. HuffC · #32	18	6	2-4	2-3	—	-3	2	4
M. PotterC · #11	20	9	3-5	1-2	2-2	+3	2	2
T.J. McConnellG · #9	17	4	2-8	0-2	—	-10	2	8
K. BrownG · #24	13	9	3-5	3-4	—	+11	0	1
B. SheppardG · #26	21	9	3-4	1-1	2-3	+2	3	1
Team		119	44-85	16-35	15-19		26	38
DNP: K. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	23	12	4-8	2-4	2-3	+21	4	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	10	4-10	0-5	2-2	+17	7	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	20	8-18	1-4	3-3	+14	8	6
D. FoxG · #4	26	14	6-16	2-5	—	+9	3	7
D. HarperG · #2	28	24	9-13	1-4	5-5	+21	4	3
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	17	6	2-3	2-3	—	-3	1	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	25	24	10-12	2-3	2-2	+11	4	4
C. BryantF · #11	21	5	2-4	1-2	—	-3	9	1
B. BiyomboC · #18	4	4	2-2	—	—	-9	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	22	9	4-6	—	1-2	+2	8	4
J. McLaughlinG · #0	18	6	2-4	2-3	—	+4	0	3
Team		134	53-97	13-34	15-17		49	33
DNP: M. Plumlee, D. Vassell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

Home

44-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

53-97

FG %

16-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Jan 3

SA123@

IND113

Mar 22

IND119@

SA134today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+90010%

SA-160094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -16.5↗SpreadBet SA -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat IND 134-119. K. Johnson led with 24 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. SA outscored the other side 42-29 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 13 REB · 18 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 13 REB · 20 AST

GS 44

SAstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 66

Bench(7)

54 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 55

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	29	24	32	34	119
SA	42	24	34	34	134

Period scoring

IND won 0 · SA won 2

Siakam 10

Johnson 8

Nembhard 8

Johnson 8

Brown 9

Harper 11

Nembhard 10

Wembanyama 12

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

52%

44-85

55%

53-97

46%

16-35

3PT

38%

13-34

79%

15-19

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 453 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 119·SA 134
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 119·SA 134
Q4·11.4
shot clock turnover
IND 119·SA 134
Q4·36.2
Quenton Jackson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
IND 119·SA 134
Q4·45.0
Quenton Jackson defensive rebound
IND 116·SA 134
Q4·47.2
Kelly Olynyk misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 116·SA 134
Q4·1:11
Micah Potter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)
·
IND 116·SA 134
Q4·1:32
Bismack Biyombo offensive foul turnover
IND 113·SA 134
Q4·1:32
Bismack Biyombo offensive foul
IND 113·SA 134
Q4·1:36
Ben Sheppard kicked ball violation
IND 113·SA 134
Q4·1:48
Ben Sheppard makes two point shot
IND 113·SA 134
Q4·1:54
Jordan McLaughlin bad pass turnover (Micah Potter steals)
·
IND 111·SA 134
Q4·2:04
Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 111·SA 134
Q4·2:04
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
IND 110·SA 134
Q4·2:04
Quenton Jackson makes 1-foot two point shot
IND 110·SA 134
Q4·2:19
Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
IND 108·SA 134
Q4·2:30
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
IND 108·SA 131
Q4·2:33
Ben Sheppard misses free throw 1 of 1
IND 108·SA 131
Q4·2:33
Lindy Waters III shooting foul
IND 108·SA 131
Q4·2:33
Ben Sheppard makes 1-foot two point shot (Quenton Jackson assists)
·
IND 108·SA 131
Q4·2:44
Carter Bryant steps out of bounds turnover
IND 106·SA 131
Q4·3:00
Jarace Walker makes 25-foot three pointer (Micah Potter assists)
·
IND 106·SA 131
Q4·3:15
Bismack Biyombo makes layup (Lindy Waters III assists)
·
IND 103·SA 131
Q4·3:24
Lindy Waters III defensive rebound
IND 103·SA 129
Q4·3:28
Kobe Brown misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
IND 103·SA 129
Q4·3:47
Bismack Biyombo makes two point shot
IND 103·SA 129
Q4·3:47
Bismack Biyombo offensive rebound
IND 103·SA 127
Q4·3:52
Jordan McLaughlin misses driving layup
IND 103·SA 127
Q4·4:08
Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 103·SA 127
Q4·4:08
Kelly Olynyk enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
IND 102·SA 127

Betting line

SA -16.5·O/U 235.5·IND +900/SA -1600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Indiana Pacers, 134–119.

IND +16.5 cashed (SA won by 15). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
16.8± 8.1high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
6.1± 2.4high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium
Ivica ZubacIND
0.7± 0.7high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.3

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR