NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

CLE

44-27

111106

25-47

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesCLE wins series 2-0VegasCLE -4.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 24pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	23	7	3-6	1-4	—	+11	5	3
E. MobleyC · #4	30	18	8-10	0-1	2-5	0	8	3
J. HardenG · #1	36	20	8-17	4-9	—	+14	6	10
D. MitchellG · #45	39	27	9-23	3-8	6-7	-3	7	3
S. MerrillG · #5	32	15	5-9	3-7	2-2	+5	10	2
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	4	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
T. BryantC · #3	15	11	5-7	0-1	1-2	-6	8	1
D. SchroderG · #8	13	1	0-4	0-2	1-2	-4	1	1
M. StrusG · #2	24	5	2-5	1-4	—	-6	8	2
K. EllisG · #14	23	7	2-6	0-3	3-4	+13	2	1
Team		111	42-88	12-39	15-22		55	26
DNP: L. Nance Jr., R. Minix

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	31	12	4-12	4-11	—	-7	3	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	32	25	10-14	—	5-9	-9	6	4
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	41	10	3-10	2-8	2-2	-6	6	0
D. MurrayG · #5	30	12	4-13	1-6	3-3	-2	3	9
S. BeyG · #41	36	19	6-14	4-8	3-3	+9	5	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	12	6	3-4	0-1	—	-11	1	0
D. QueenC · #22	15	9	3-5	0-1	3-3	0	3	4
Y. MissiC · #21	24	6	3-7	—	—	+4	10	3
J. FearsG · #0	18	7	3-11	1-5	—	-3	3	3
Team		106	39-90	12-40	16-20		40	30
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

42-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-90

FG %

12-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

15-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 2-0

Dec 24

NO118@

CLE141

Mar 21

CLE111@

NO106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-20567%

NO+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat NO 111-106. J. Harden led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 10 AST. CLE outscored the other side 35-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 36 REB · 21 AST

GS 78

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

NOstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 8:42 · 59-67

+24pp→ 63% WP

Zion Williamson · makes driving layup (Dejounte Murray assists)

CLE4th Quarter · 6:56 · 94-95

+12pp→ 50% WP

James Harden · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)

CLE4th Quarter · 4.2 · 110-106

+15pp→ 96% WP

Donovan Mitchell · makes driving layup (James Harden assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	34	19	23	35	111
NO	28	28	32	18	106

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · NO won 2

Mitchell 9

Missi 6

Mobley 8

Jones 9

Harden 7

Williamson 22

Harden 13

Williamson 7

CLE

Shooting comparison

CLE

48%

42-88

43%

39-90

31%

12-39

3PT

30%

12-40

68%

15-22

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 111·NO 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 111·NO 106
Q4·2.2
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
CLE 111·NO 106
Q4·2.2
Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 111·NO 106
−1pp
Q4·4.2
Pelicans Full timeout
CLE 111·NO 106
Q4·4.2
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 1
CLE 111·NO 106
+0.8pp
Q4·4.2
Trey Murphy III shooting foul
CLE 110·NO 106
−3pp
Q4·4.2
Donovan Mitchell makes driving layup (James Harden assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 110·NO 106
−15pp
Q4·26.8
Dejounte Murray makes running layupBIG MOMENT
CLE 108·NO 106
+5pp
Q4·31.4
Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
CLE 108·NO 104
+1pp
Q4·34.9
Donovan Mitchell misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 108·NO 104
+4pp
Q4·45.5
Max Strus offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 108·NO 104
−5pp
Q4·49.7
James Harden misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
CLE 108·NO 104
+3pp
Q4·1:11
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 108·NO 104
Q4·1:13
Zion Williamson misses free throw 1 of 1
CLE 108·NO 104
Q4·1:13
(01:13) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 108·NO 104
−11pp
Q4·1:13
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 108·NO 104
Q4·1:13
Evan Mobley shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 108·NO 104
+11pp
Q4·1:13
Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
·
CLE 108·NO 104
+4pp
Q4·1:24
Sam Merrill makes 1-foot layup (Evan Mobley assists)
·
CLE 108·NO 102
−4pp
Q4·1:38
Sam Merrill defensive rebound
CLE 106·NO 102
−1pp
Q4·1:41
Evan Mobley blocks Dejounte Murray 's 2-foot two point shot
·
CLE 106·NO 102
−4pp
Q4·1:50
Dejounte Murray makes free throw flagrant 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
CLE 106·NO 102
+6pp
Q4·1:50
Dejounte Murray makes free throw flagrant 2 of 3
CLE 106·NO 101
+4pp
Q4·1:50
Dejounte Murray makes free throw flagrant 1 of 3
CLE 106·NO 100
+4pp
Q4·1:50
(01:50) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 106·NO 99
−0.5pp
Q4·1:50
Max Strus flagrant foul type 1
CLE 106·NO 99
Q4·1:57
Pelicans Full timeout
CLE 106·NO 99
Q4·1:57
Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)
·
CLE 106·NO 99
−2pp
Q4·2:07
Evan Mobley offensive rebound
CLE 104·NO 99
−3pp

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 237.5·CLE -205/NO +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 111–106. Decided by 5.

CLE -4.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.5

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR