NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21OKC

OKC

56-15

132111

WSH

16-54

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesOKC wins series 2-0VegasOKC -21.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Bilal Coulibaly

G · #0

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 27.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	25	9	4-7	—	1-4	+11	20	10
C. HolmgrenC · #7	27	18	6-9	0-1	6-6	+24	10	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	32	40	17-27	1-2	5-8	+11	3	7
C. WallaceG · #22	15	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	+1	2	3
A. MitchellG · #25	15	14	6-10	2-2	—	-5	1	3
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	+8	3	0
B. BarnhizerF · #23	5	0	—	—	—	+1	3	0
A. CarusoG · #9	20	4	2-4	0-2	—	+19	1	5
K. WilliamsG · #34	14	11	4-5	1-2	2-4	+7	3	0
I. JoeG · #11	31	9	2-8	2-8	3-3	+12	4	2
A. WigginsG · #21	21	5	2-5	1-1	—	+1	2	0
J. McCainG · #3	28	18	6-15	4-10	2-3	+15	3	1
Team		132	50-93	11-30	21-30		55	31

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	14	3	1-3	1-1	—	-2	1	1
A. SarrC · #20	22	14	5-12	2-5	2-2	+4	5	8
B. CarringtonG · #7	33	19	7-12	4-7	1-3	-7	3	3
B. CoulibalyG · #0	34	21	8-15	3-5	2-2	+4	4	4
W. RileyG · #27	28	9	3-8	0-2	3-3	-21	1	4
Bench
A. GillF · #16	26	13	6-9	0-1	1-1	-13	5	1
T. VukcevicF · #00	20	6	2-11	1-8	1-3	-24	7	0
S. CooperG · #13	19	3	1-6	1-3	—	-19	2	2
J. WatkinsG · #5	26	13	4-9	2-5	3-4	-5	5	3
J. HardyG · #8	19	10	4-6	2-2	—	-22	1	2
Team		111	41-91	16-39	13-18		34	28
DNP: T. Young, T. Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

50-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-91

FG %

11-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-39

21-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 2-0

Oct 31

WSH108@

OKC127

Mar 21

OKC132@

WSH111today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -21.5

Between 10 and —

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-280097%

WSH+13007%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -21.5↗SpreadBet OKC -21.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

21.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat WSH 132-111. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points and 7 assists. OKC outscored the other side 29-15 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 36 REB · 23 AST

GS 84

Bench(7)

47 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 35

WSHstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 14 REB · 20 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 30

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	32	37	34	29	132
WSH	32	32	32	15	111

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · WSH won 0

Mitchell 7

Carrington 10

Gilgeous-Alexander 13

Watkins 12

Gilgeous-Alexander 16

Coulibaly 14

McCain 9

Gill 6

OKC

WSH

Shooting comparison

OKC

WSH

54%

50-93

45%

41-91

37%

11-30

3PT

41%

16-39

70%

21-30

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 132·WSH 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 132·WSH 111
Q4·13.9
Anthony Gill makes driving layup (Bilal Coulibaly assists)
·
OKC 132·WSH 111
Q4·39.1
Wizards defensive team rebound
OKC 132·WSH 109
Q4·39.1
Isaiah Joe misses 22-foot three point jumper
OKC 132·WSH 109
Q4·41.1
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
OKC 132·WSH 109
Q4·43.1
Jared McCain misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 132·WSH 109
Q4·58.2
Anthony Gill makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden Hardy assists)
·
OKC 132·WSH 109
Q4·1:13
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 3 of 3
OKC 132·WSH 107
Q4·1:13
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 2 of 3
OKC 131·WSH 107
Q4·1:13
Isaiah Joe makes free throw 1 of 3
OKC 130·WSH 107
Q4·1:13
Jaden Hardy shooting foul
OKC 129·WSH 107
Q4·1:20
Jaden Hardy makes tip shot
OKC 129·WSH 107
Q4·1:20
Jaden Hardy offensive rebound
OKC 129·WSH 105
Q4·1:25
Jaden Hardy misses two point shot
OKC 129·WSH 105
Q4·1:36
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 129·WSH 105
Q4·1:36
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 128·WSH 105
Q4·1:36
Bub Carrington shooting foul
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·1:40
Sharife Cooper bad pass turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·1:49
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·1:52
Jared McCain misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·2:14
Anthony Gill offensive goaltending turnover
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·2:25
Isaiah Joe kicked ball violation
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·2:25
Kenrich Williams personal foul
·
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·2:37
Kenrich Williams makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jared McCain assists)
· ·
OKC 127·WSH 105
Q4·2:41
Brooks Barnhizer offensive rebound
OKC 125·WSH 105
Q4·2:44
Aaron Wiggins misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 125·WSH 105
Q4·2:56
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
OKC 125·WSH 105
Q4·2:59
Sharife Cooper misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
OKC 125·WSH 105
Q4·3:09
Jaden Hardy enters the game for Jamir Watkins
·
OKC 125·WSH 105

Betting line

OKC -21.5·O/U 230.5·OKC -2800/WSH +1300

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 132–111. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +21.5 cashed (OKC won by 21). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Ajay MitchellOKC
15.0± 8.5high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Ajay MitchellOKC
4.2± 2.6high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

WSH

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR