NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SA

PHX

39-31

100101

52-18

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasSA -9.5

PHX · top performer

Collin Gillespie

G · #12

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

29.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 75pp · 4th Quarter · 32.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. IghodaroF · #11	34	15	7-10	—	1-2	-1	7	7
D. BookerG · #1	34	22	8-21	0-4	6-7	-12	0	5
J. GoodwinG · #23	35	5	2-9	1-5	—	-14	8	0
C. GillespieG · #12	34	24	7-13	6-11	4-4	+3	2	6
J. GreenG · #4	34	17	7-20	1-7	2-2	-5	8	4
Bench
R. DunnF · #0	20	5	2-5	1-3	—	-2	8	1
R. FlemingF · #20	20	8	3-7	2-5	0-2	+11	5	0
K. MaluachC · #10	14	4	2-3	—	—	0	5	1
A. CoffeyG · #2	6	0	—	—	—	+3	1	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	9	0	0-3	0-1	—	+12	3	1
Team		100	38-91	11-36	13-17		47	27
DNP: I. Livers, C. Huntley, K. Brea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	23	6	3-6	0-2	—	-4	1	3
J. ChampagnieF · #30	34	14	4-8	4-8	2-2	-1	2	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	35	34	10-20	2-7	12-12	+18	12	1
D. FoxG · #4	33	23	8-17	1-5	6-7	-7	7	3
D. VassellG · #24	33	12	5-10	2-7	—	+21	2	2
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	20	6	3-10	0-3	—	-5	4	1
C. BryantF · #11	10	0	0-1	—	—	-15	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	15	1	0-2	—	1-2	-18	4	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	10	0	—	—	—	+6	2	5
D. HarperG · #2	26	5	2-9	1-2	—	+10	6	5
Team		101	35-83	10-34	21-23		42	23
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, M. Plumlee

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

38-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-83

FG %

11-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-34

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 3

SA118@

PHX130

Nov 24

SA102@

PHX111

Feb 20

PHX94@

SA121

Mar 20

PHX100@

SA101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+36022%

SA-47082%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -9.5↗SpreadBet SA -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat PHX 101-100. V. Wembanyama paced them with 34 PTS, 12 REB, 1 AST. Ryan Dunn's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (75pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 22 REB · 5 AST

GS 16

SAstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

12 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 1:31 · 97-95

+28pp→ 41% WP

Jalen Green · enters the game for Rasheer Fleming

SA4th Quarter · 1.1 · 100-101

+48pp→ 95% WP

Victor Wembanyama · makes 17-foot pullup jump shot

PHX4th Quarter · 32.7 · 100-97

+75pp→ 75% WP

Ryan Dunn · enters the game for Jalen Green

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	26	33	20	21	100
SA	24	28	21	28	101

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · SA won 2

Green 9

Wembanyama 6

Gillespie 11

Wembanyama 15

Booker 14

Barnes 20

Gillespie 5

Wembanyama 27

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

42%

38-91

42%

35-83

31%

11-36

3PT

29%

10-34

76%

13-17

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 100·SA 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 101
+5pp
Q4·1.1
Victor Wembanyama makes 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 101
+48pp
Q4·10.8
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Rasheer Fleming
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·10.8
De'Aaron Fox enters the game for Luke KornetBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 100·SA 99
+14pp
Q4·10.8
Spurs Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
−34pp
Q4·10.9
Luke Kornet defensive rebound
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·11.1
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·11.1
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Carter Bryant
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·11.1
Luke Kornet enters the game for De'Aaron FoxBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 100·SA 99
+23pp
Q4·11.1
Rasheer Fleming misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
+17pp
Q4·11.1
Suns offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
+10pp
Q4·11.1
Rasheer Fleming misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
−21pp
Q4·11.1
Victor Wembanyama personal take foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
−21pp
Q4·11.7
Carter Bryant enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·11.7
Suns Full timeout
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·26.6
Suns Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
+21pp
Q4·26.6
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·26.6
Jalen Green enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 100·SA 99
Q4·26.6
De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 99
+9pp
Q4·32.7
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen GreenBIG MOMENT
·
PHX 100·SA 97
−75pp
Q4·32.7
Ryan Dunn enters the game for
PHX 100·SA 97
Q4·32.7
Spurs defensive team rebound
PHX 100·SA 97
+2pp
Q4·34.1
Devin Booker misses 23-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 100·SA 97
+4pp
Q4·59.0
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 97
−8pp
Q4·59.0
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 100·SA 96
+2pp
Q4·59.0
Devin Booker shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 95
+11pp
Q4·59.9
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
PHX 100·SA 95
+4pp
Q4·1:01
Devin Vassell misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 100·SA 95
−5pp
Q4·1:13
Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 100·SA 95
−26pp

Betting line

SA -9.5·O/U 228.5·PHX +360/SA -470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Phoenix Suns, 101–100. It came down to the final possession.

PHX +9.5 cashed (SA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high

Blocks

Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR