NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

CLE

43-27

115110

CHI

28-42

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasCLE -9.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Tre Jones

G · #30

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 3:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	19	0	0-3	0-2	—	+2	7	1
E. MobleyC · #4	36	26	12-19	0-1	2-6	+11	14	3
J. HardenG · #1	37	36	10-23	7-13	9-11	+9	7	9
S. MerrillG · #5	31	13	5-12	3-8	—	+1	1	3
J. TysonG · #20	23	18	8-14	2-4	0-2	+1	11	3
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	11	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
T. BryantC · #3	16	5	2-5	1-2	0-2	+4	4	0
D. SchroderG · #8	16	9	1-4	1-3	6-6	+7	2	3
M. StrusG · #2	24	0	0-5	0-5	—	-7	6	1
K. EllisG · #14	27	8	2-6	0-3	4-4	-6	2	3
Team		115	40-91	14-41	21-31		54	26
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, R. Minix

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BuzelisF · #14	33	13	5-13	2-9	1-2	-20	5	0
N. RichardsC · #13	30	16	7-11	1-2	1-4	+11	8	0
C. SextonG · #2	19	9	3-11	1-5	2-2	-12	4	2
T. JonesG · #30	32	20	6-12	2-4	6-8	+4	4	3
J. GiddeyG · #3	37	9	4-11	1-5	—	-5	6	19
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	29	10	4-8	2-5	—	+3	11	1
P. WilliamsF · #44	20	6	2-5	2-4	—	+5	1	1
L. MillerF · #11	19	10	4-9	1-3	1-1	-2	4	0
R. DillinghamG · #7	21	17	7-14	3-7	—	-9	4	1
Team		110	42-94	15-44	11-17		47	27
DNP: J. Smith, I. Okoro, L. Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

40-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-94

FG %

14-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-44

21-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 9

CHI122@

CLE128

Dec 18

CLE111@

CHI127

Dec 20

CHI136@

CLE125

Mar 20

CLE115@

CHI110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-48583%

CHI+37021%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat CHI 115-110. J. Harden led the way with 36 points and 9 assists. CHI outscored the other side 37-22 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 40 REB · 19 AST

GS 82

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 16

CHIstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 24 AST

GS 55

Bench(4)

43 PTS · 20 REB · 3 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE4th Quarter · 4:34 · 103-100

+10pp→ 81% WP

Tre Jones · misses free throw 2 of 2

CHI4th Quarter · 3:33 · 103-100

+10pp→ 34% WP

Sam Merrill · personal foul

CLE4th Quarter · 3:18 · 106-102

+12pp→ 82% WP

Sam Merrill · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	32	29	32	22	115
CHI	22	23	28	37	110

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · CHI won 1

Harden 16

Giddey 5

Mobley 8

Jones 6

Mobley 12

Dillingham 15

Harden 7

Yabusele 10

CLE

CHI

Shooting comparison

CLE

CHI

44%

40-91

45%

42-94

34%

14-41

3PT

34%

15-44

68%

21-31

65%

11-17

Play-by-play · 526 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 115·CHI 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 115·CHI 110
−0.5pp
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
CLE 115·CHI 110
Q4·1.3
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 115·CHI 110
Q4·1.3
Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 114·CHI 110
Q4·1.3
Tre Jones personal foul
CLE 113·CHI 110
−3pp
Q4·4.0
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
CLE 113·CHI 110
Q4·4.0
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 113·CHI 110
Q4·4.0
Guerschon Yabusele makes running layup
CLE 113·CHI 110
Q4·7.7
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
CLE 113·CHI 108
−0.9pp
Q4·10.1
Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 113·CHI 108
+3pp
Q4·10.1
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 113·CHI 108
+0.7pp
Q4·10.1
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 113·CHI 108
Q4·10.1
Josh Giddey personal foul
CLE 113·CHI 108
−1pp
Q4·10.1
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 113·CHI 108
−0.8pp
Q4·11.3
Matas Buzelis misses 24-foot three point jumper
CLE 113·CHI 108
−4pp
Q4·17.7
Bulls Full timeout
CLE 113·CHI 108
Q4·17.7
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 113·CHI 108
+0.6pp
Q4·17.7
Keon Ellis enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 112·CHI 108
Q4·17.7
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 112·CHI 108
+2pp
Q4·17.7
James Harden misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 112·CHI 108
+1pp
Q4·17.7
Josh Giddey personal foul
CLE 112·CHI 108
−4pp
Q4·18.4
Dennis Schroder enters the game for Keon Ellis
·
CLE 112·CHI 108
Q4·18.4
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 112·CHI 108
−2pp
Q4·29.3
Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 112·CHI 108
−0.7pp
Q4·29.3
Bulls offensive team rebound
CLE 112·CHI 107
−4pp
Q4·29.3
Tre Jones misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·CHI 107
−5pp
Q4·29.3
James Harden shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·CHI 107
+9pp
Q4·31.7
Bulls Full timeout
CLE 112·CHI 107
Q4·32.5
James Harden makes 18-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·CHI 107
−6pp

Betting line

CLE -9.5·O/U 236.5·CLE -485/CHI +370

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 115–110. Decided by 5.

CHI +9.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
James HardenCLE · G
DRIVES12.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

CHI

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

117.4

PPG

114.9

116.3

27.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR