NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22DET

DET

50-19

11795

WSH

16-53

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesDET wins series 3-1VegasDET -14.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Tristan Vukcevic

F · #00

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ WSH

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	22	7	2-6	0-1	3-4	+8	7	5
D. RobinsonF · #55	27	14	5-10	4-9	—	+7	5	2
J. DurenC · #0	25	24	9-15	—	6-8	+15	11	0
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	10	3-7	—	4-4	+5	9	3
D. JenkinsG · #24	34	9	3-16	2-7	1-1	+18	2	5
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	21	17	7-11	—	3-4	+6	4	3
T. SmithF · #35	3	2	1-2	—	—	+1	2	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	20	2	1-4	—	—	+15	5	1
J. GreenG · #31	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-12	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	20	14	5-8	3-5	1-3	+16	5	6
K. HuerterG · #27	23	14	6-10	0-2	2-2	+26	5	2
M. SasserG · #25	14	2	1-5	0-4	—	+4	1	5
C. LanierG · #20	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	0	0
Team		117	44-97	9-30	20-26		56	32

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. SarrC · #20	21	2	1-12	0-3	—	-9	3	2
S. CooperG · #13	27	13	6-8	1-2	—	+3	7	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	35	10	4-11	1-6	1-1	-25	6	4
W. RileyG · #27	40	15	5-13	4-8	1-2	-11	3	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	24	12	5-11	2-6	—	-8	1	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	24	0	0-3	0-1	—	-28	5	3
T. VukcevicF · #00	18	21	7-8	3-3	4-6	-6	4	1
J. WatkinsG · #5	27	9	3-6	1-2	2-3	-14	6	3
J. HardyG · #8	25	13	5-10	3-7	—	-12	0	2
Team		95	36-82	15-38	8-12		35	20
DNP: J. Champagnie, T. Young, B. Coulibaly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

44-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-82

FG %

9-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

20-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 3-1

Nov 11

WSH135@

DET137

Feb 6

WSH126@

DET117

Mar 17

DET130@

WSH117

Mar 19

DET117@

WSH95today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-120092%

WSH+75012%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -14.5↗SpreadBet DET -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat WSH 117-95. J. Duren led with 24 PTS, 11 REB, 0 AST. DET outscored the other side 35-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 34 REB · 15 AST

GS 59

Bench(8)

53 PTS · 22 REB · 17 AST

GS 53

WSHstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 23

Bench(4)

43 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	35	25	28	29	117
WSH	14	38	26	17	95

Period scoring

DET won 3 · WSH won 1

Duren 7

Carrington 5

Duren 6

Jenkins 17

Duren 11

Riley 8

Reed 9

Vukcevic 8

DET

WSH

Shooting comparison

DET

WSH

45%

44-97

44%

36-82

30%

9-30

3PT

39%

15-38

77%

20-26

67%

8-12

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·10.3
Tolu Smith defensive rebound
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·14.2
Jaden Hardy misses 27-foot three point jumper
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·26.5
Jamir Watkins defensive rebound
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·27.5
Jamir Watkins blocks Tolu Smith 's 2-foot two point shot
·
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·28.0
Tolu Smith offensive rebound
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·29.5
Kevin Huerter misses layup
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·52.1
Sharife Cooper bad pass turnover (Chaz Lanier steals)
·
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·53.7
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·56.2
Jamir Watkins blocks Daniss Jenkins 's 7-foot driving layup
·
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·1:16
Tristan Vukcevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
DET 117·WSH 95
Q4·1:29
Tolu Smith makes 1-foot layup (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
DET 117·WSH 92
Q4·1:48
Tristan Vukcevic offensive foul turnover
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·1:48
Tristan Vukcevic offensive foul
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·1:51
Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·1:53
Chaz Lanier misses 23-foot running jump shot
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·2:00
Jaden Hardy bad pass turnover (Chaz Lanier steals)
·
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·2:14
Kevin Huerter makes 1-foot running dunk
DET 115·WSH 92
Q4·2:18
Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Kevin Huerter steals)
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Tolu Smith enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Paul Reed
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Tristan Vukcevic enters the game for Anthony Gill
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Jaden Hardy enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Wizards Full timeout
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:30
Will Riley defensive rebound
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:32
Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point jumper
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:39
Paul Reed defensive rebound
DET 113·WSH 92
Q4·2:41
Bub Carrington misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 113·WSH 92

Betting line

DET -14.5·O/U 231.5·DET -1200/WSH +750

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 117–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DET -14.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Tobias HarrisDET
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Sharife CooperWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

WSH

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR