NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15ATL

ATL

38-31

135120

DAL

23-47

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-0VegasATL -8.5

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Daniel Gafford

F · #21

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 4th Quarter · 9:31

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	29	12	5-11	2-6	—	+3	9	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	17	7-19	2-7	1-2	+4	11	9
C. McCollumG · #3	28	24	9-14	0-3	6-7	+24	0	7
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	30	22	8-14	4-5	2-2	+19	1	2
D. DanielsG · #5	32	19	9-13	—	1-1	+10	6	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	13	10	4-7	1-3	1-2	-5	3	0
J. KumingaF · #0	18	16	7-11	2-3	—	+10	5	3
Z. RisacherF · #10	16	5	2-4	1-2	—	+8	6	1
J. LandaleC · #31	19	5	2-3	1-2	—	+12	1	5
B. HieldG · #8	2	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
G. VincentG · #4	11	3	1-4	1-3	—	+5	0	1
K. WallaceG · #2	2	2	1-1	—	—	-5	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	0
Team		135	55-102	14-35	11-14		42	36
DNP: M. Gueye

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	30	23	7-14	2-6	7-8	-17	9	1
N. MarshallF · #13	28	4	2-10	0-1	—	-7	3	4
C. FlaggF · #32	33	17	6-15	0-3	5-6	-16	6	5
M. ChristieG · #00	30	13	4-6	2-4	3-3	-16	2	1
R. NembhardG · #9	27	8	3-7	2-2	—	-18	2	12
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	19	7	2-6	1-1	2-2	-8	6	0
D. PowellF · #7	3	2	1-1	—	—	+4	0	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	16	2	1-2	—	—	-12	7	0
D. GaffordF · #21	22	24	9-10	—	6-7	+7	8	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	22	17	6-12	4-10	1-2	+4	0	1
A. JohnsonG · #8	10	3	1-3	0-1	1-1	+4	0	2
Team		120	42-86	11-28	25-29		43	26
DNP: C. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

55-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-86

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-28

11-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-0

Mar 10

DAL112@

ATL124

Mar 19

ATL135@

DAL120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-32576%

DAL+26028%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗SpreadBet ATL -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat DAL 135-120. C. McCollum led with 24 PTS, 0 REB, 7 AST. ATL outscored the other side 34-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 27 REB · 26 AST

GS 86

Bench(8)

41 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

DALstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 22 REB · 23 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

55 PTS · 21 REB · 3 AST

GS 50

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL4th Quarter · 9:31 · 107-89

+6pp→ 100% WP

Daniel Gafford · enters the game for Klay Thompson

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	37	30	34	34	135
DAL	30	26	26	38	120

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · DAL won 1

Okongwu 10

Gafford 7

McCollum 8

Washington 7

McCollum 9

Washington 7

Kispert 9

Gafford 30

ATL

DAL

Shooting comparison

ATL

DAL

54%

55-102

49%

42-86

40%

14-35

3PT

39%

11-28

79%

11-14

86%

25-29

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 135·DAL 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 135·DAL 120
Q4·23.6
AJ Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1
·
ATL 135·DAL 120
Q4·23.6
Jalen Johnson shooting foul
·
ATL 135·DAL 119
Q4·23.6
AJ Johnson makes driving layup
·
ATL 135·DAL 119
Q4·35.0
Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound
ATL 135·DAL 117
Q4·37.8
Caleb Houstan misses 27-foot running jump shot
ATL 135·DAL 117
Q4·42.5
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
·
ATL 135·DAL 117
Q4·46.1
Ryan Nembhard misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
ATL 135·DAL 117
Q4·51.7
Keaton Wallace makes 2-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
·
ATL 135·DAL 117
Q4·1:03
Marvin Bagley III makes alley oop layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
ATL 133·DAL 117
Q4·1:15
Jalen Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper
·
ATL 133·DAL 115
Q4·1:15
Jalen Johnson offensive rebound
·
ATL 130·DAL 115
Q4·1:19
AJ Johnson blocks Jalen Johnson 's 9-foot turnaround jump shot
·
ATL 130·DAL 115
Q4·1:32
Dwight Powell makes driving layup (AJ Johnson assists)
· ·
ATL 130·DAL 115
Q4·1:34
Jalen Johnson bad pass turnover (AJ Johnson steals)
·
ATL 130·DAL 113
Q4·1:52
Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
ATL 130·DAL 113
Q4·2:01
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
ATL 130·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Buddy Hield enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:01
Dwight Powell shooting foul
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:15
Ryan Nembhard makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
ATL 129·DAL 110
Q4·2:23
Dyson Daniels makes tip shot
ATL 129·DAL 108
Q4·2:23
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
ATL 127·DAL 108
Q4·2:26
Jalen Johnson misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
·
ATL 127·DAL 108
Q4·2:39
Dwight Powell enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
ATL 127·DAL 108
Q4·2:39
Klay Thompson enters the game for P.J. Washington
·
ATL 127·DAL 108

Betting line

ATL -8.5·O/U 239.5·ATL -325/DAL +260

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 135–120.

ATL -8.5 cashed (won by 15). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

DAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR