NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15NO

LAC

34-35

109124

24-46

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-1VegasLAC -2.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 40pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:33

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	29	25	9-12	4-6	3-3	-10	8	1
J. CollinsF · #20	24	18	6-11	0-3	6-6	+1	7	2
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	29	4	2-6	0-3	0-2	-2	2	3
B. LopezC · #11	31	11	5-12	0-3	1-2	-14	5	4
D. GarlandG · #10	29	13	6-12	1-3	—	-11	1	6
Bench
I. JacksonF · #23	19	10	5-7	—	—	-9	6	1
K. DunnG · #8	26	6	2-6	2-4	—	-11	1	3
B. BogdanovicG · #7	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+1	1	1
J. MillerG · #22	23	13	6-10	1-2	—	-15	3	1
K. SandersG · #4	15	3	1-6	1-4	—	-7	2	2
S. PedullaG · #00	5	2	1-3	0-2	—	+1	0	0
C. ChristieG · #12	5	4	2-2	—	—	+1	0	0
Team		109	45-88	9-31	10-13		36	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	26	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	+3	3	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	28	14	6-8	—	2-2	+11	4	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	40	23	7-17	4-12	5-6	+9	7	5
D. MurrayG · #5	30	17	7-12	3-7	—	+9	4	11
S. BeyG · #41	35	25	10-21	5-10	—	+19	5	4
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	25	9	4-8	1-3	—	+21	8	0
D. QueenC · #22	19	14	2-4	1-1	9-9	+4	2	2
Y. MissiC · #21	19	4	2-3	—	—	-7	6	1
J. FearsG · #0	18	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	+6	1	3
Team		124	44-83	16-37	20-21		40	32
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

Home

45-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-83

FG %

9-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-37

10-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 2-1

Nov 1

NO124@

LAC126

Mar 2

NO117@

LAC137

Mar 19

LAC109@

NO124today

Mar 20

LAC99@

NO105

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-13057%

NO+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -2.5↗SpreadBet LAC -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat LAC 124-109. T. Murphy III led with 23 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. LAC outscored the other side 40-26 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 61

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 26

NOstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 23 REB · 26 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 6:28 · 71-76

+12pp→ 56% WP

Saddiq Bey · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Dejounte Murray assists)

LAC3rd Quarter · 11:24 · 60-60

+20pp→ 64% WP

John Collins · blocks Herbert Jones 's 2-foot tip shot

LAC3rd Quarter · 6:33 · 71-73

+40pp→ 52% WP

Derrick Jones Jr. · lost ball turnover (Herbert Jones steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	40	20	25	24	109
NO	26	34	36	28	124

Period scoring

LAC won 1 · NO won 3

Leonard 12

III 7

Leonard 7

Collins 31

Leonard 6

Leonard 16

Garland 6

Garland 23

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

51%

45-88

53%

44-83

29%

9-31

3PT

43%

16-37

77%

10-13

95%

20-21

Play-by-play · 429 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·3.2
shot clock turnover
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·27.9
Isaiah Jackson bad pass turnover (Herbert Jones steals)
·
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·30.0
Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·32.8
Herbert Jones misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·54.0
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·56.0
Kobe Sanders misses layup
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·1:15
Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three pointer
LAC 109·NO 124
Q4·1:38
Cam Christie makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
LAC 109·NO 121
Q4·1:47
Dejounte Murray out of bounds lost ball turnover
LAC 107·NO 121
Q4·1:59
Cam Christie lost ball turnover (Saddiq Bey steals)
·
LAC 107·NO 121
Q4·2:03
Karlo Matkovic bad pass turnover (Isaiah Jackson steals)
·
LAC 107·NO 121
Q4·2:11
Cam Christie makes running layup (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)
·
LAC 107·NO 121
Q4·2:15
Bogdan Bogdanovic defensive rebound
LAC 105·NO 121
Q4·2:16
Saddiq Bey misses driving layup
LAC 105·NO 121
Q4·2:45
Sean Pedulla makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
LAC 105·NO 121
Q4·2:52
Dejounte Murray lost ball turnover (Cam Christie steals)
·
LAC 103·NO 121
Q4·3:10
Isaiah Jackson makes dunk
LAC 103·NO 121
Q4·3:10
Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound
LAC 101·NO 121
Q4·3:15
Sean Pedulla misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 101·NO 121
Q4·3:22
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 101·NO 121
Q4·3:25
Sean Pedulla misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAC 101·NO 121
Q4·3:53
Dejounte Murray makes 21-foot pullup jump shot
LAC 101·NO 121
Q4·4:00
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
LAC 101·NO 119
Q4·4:04
Kobe Sanders misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
LAC 101·NO 119
Q4·4:24
Saddiq Bey makes 1-foot running dunk (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
LAC 101·NO 119
Q4·4:26
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
LAC 101·NO 117
Q4·4:28
Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAC 101·NO 117
Q4·4:43
Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
LAC 101·NO 117

Betting line

LAC -2.5·O/U 236.5·LAC -130/NO +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off LA Clippers, 124–109.

NO +2.5 cashed (LAC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

113.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.1

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR