NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+30TOR

TOR

39-29

139109

CHI

28-41

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasTOR -7.5

TOR · top performer

Ja'Kobe Walter

G · #14

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

14.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CHI

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	29	18	6-7	1-1	5-5	+37	5	4
R. BarrettF · #9	27	23	9-15	3-7	2-2	+25	4	2
S. BarnesF · #4	25	18	6-10	1-3	5-6	+14	7	3
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	17	7-10	—	3-3	+33	8	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	26	10	4-11	2-5	—	+24	2	7
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	22	17	5-8	2-3	5-6	+2	4	5
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	5	2	1-1	—	—	-5	1	0
J. BattleF · #77	22	6	2-6	2-4	—	-2	2	1
J. MogboF · #2	7	1	—	—	1-2	-6	4	0
G. TempleG · #17	7	2	1-3	0-2	—	-6	1	2
J. SheadG · #23	18	0	—	—	—	+20	1	5
J. WalterG · #14	21	18	4-6	2-4	8-9	+20	4	1
G. DickG · #1	10	7	3-7	1-4	—	-6	0	1
Team		139	48-84	14-33	29-33		43	33

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	17	10	3-4	2-3	2-2	-9	4	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	31	19	6-15	3-8	4-6	-24	7	1
L. MillerF · #11	27	13	6-9	1-3	—	-10	4	0
T. JonesG · #30	24	6	3-8	—	—	-14	2	5
J. GiddeyG · #3	27	9	4-13	1-8	0-1	-30	0	3
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	14	5	1-3	1-1	2-2	-12	3	3
P. WilliamsF · #44	26	7	2-7	0-3	3-3	-21	5	0
N. RichardsC · #13	16	4	2-5	0-1	—	-20	6	0
L. OlbrichC · #47	8	2	1-1	—	0-2	+6	2	0
C. SextonG · #2	18	14	4-7	0-1	6-8	-13	2	5
R. DillinghamG · #7	25	15	7-11	1-3	—	-11	0	4
Y. KawamuraG · #8	8	5	1-2	—	3-4	+8	1	2
Team		109	40-85	9-31	20-28		36	24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

48-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-85

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-31

29-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 3-0

Feb 6

CHI107@

TOR123

Feb 20

TOR110@

CHI101

Mar 19

TOR139@

CHI109today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-29074%

CHI+23530%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗SpreadBet TOR -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHI 139-109. J. Walter led with 18 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 32-17 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 73

Bench(8)

53 PTS · 17 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

CHIstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

Bench(7)

52 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 44

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	32	40	36	31	139
CHI	17	28	31	33	109

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · CHI won 1

Barrett 10

Giddey 5

Quickley 10

Buzelis 9

Barrett 9

Buzelis 10

Poeltl 8

Dillingham 11

TOR

CHI

Shooting comparison

TOR

CHI

57%

48-84

47%

40-85

42%

14-33

3PT

29%

9-31

88%

29-33

71%

20-28

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 139·CHI 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 139·CHI 109
Q4·17.3
Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 139·CHI 109
Q4·17.3
Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 139·CHI 108
Q4·17.3
Garrett Temple personal foul
TOR 139·CHI 107
Q4·23.8
Bulls offensive team rebound
TOR 139·CHI 107
Q4·25.8
Yuki Kawamura misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 139·CHI 107
Q4·38.9
Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Garrett Temple assists)
·
TOR 139·CHI 107
Q4·45.8
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 136·CHI 107
Q4·50.8
Leonard Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 136·CHI 107
Q4·58.8
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes dunk (Garrett Temple assists)
·
TOR 136·CHI 107
Q4·1:18
Leonard Miller makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
TOR 134·CHI 107
Q4·1:31
Garrett Temple makes 13-foot two point shot
TOR 134·CHI 105
Q4·1:46
Yuki Kawamura bad pass turnover (Gradey Dick steals)
·
TOR 132·CHI 105
Q4·1:53
Garrett Temple bad pass turnover (Patrick Williams steals)
·
TOR 132·CHI 105
Q4·2:06
Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 132·CHI 105
Q4·2:06
Jonathan Mogbo shooting foul
TOR 132·CHI 104
Q4·2:06
Patrick Williams makes running layup
TOR 132·CHI 104
Q4·2:09
Gradey Dick bad pass turnover (Patrick Williams steals)
·
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:21
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:24
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:24
Bulls offensive team rebound
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:24
Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:24
Garrett Temple loose ball foul
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:30
Garrett Temple out of bounds bad pass turnover
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:31
Jonathan Mogbo offensive rebound
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:33
Garrett Temple misses 29-foot three point jumper
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:50
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:52
Yuki Kawamura misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 132·CHI 102
Q4·2:52
Yuki Kawamura makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 132·CHI 102

Betting line

TOR -7.5·O/U 237.5·TOR -290/CHI +235

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 139–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -7.5 cashed (won by 30). Total cleared the 237.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CHI

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.7%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR