NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21BOS

33-36

99120

BOS

46-23

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -11.5

GS · top performer

Gary Payton II

G · #0

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:59

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	32	13	5-12	3-7	—	-12	5	5
G. SantosF · #15	28	13	5-12	0-4	3-3	-4	5	0
K. PorzingisC · #7	23	11	4-13	2-7	1-4	+3	5	2
D. MeltonG · #8	23	5	2-9	1-6	—	-13	1	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	28	10	1-8	1-7	7-10	-11	6	5
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	10	0	0-1	—	—	-12	1	0
O. YurtsevenC · #77	5	4	2-3	0-1	—	-3	2	0
Q. PostC · #21	21	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	-21	5	3
G. Payton IIG · #0	21	14	7-11	0-3	—	-17	6	4
N. WilliamsG · #19	5	2	—	—	2-2	0	0	1
P. SpencerG · #61	20	14	5-11	2-3	2-2	-8	1	2
W. RichardG · #3	25	7	3-6	0-3	1-1	-7	2	2
Team		99	36-90	10-43	17-24		39	26
DNP: L. Cryer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	31	24	7-15	5-11	5-6	+18	10	2
S. HauserF · #30	21	6	2-6	2-5	—	+6	0	0
N. QuetaC · #88	28	8	4-7	—	—	+16	7	3
D. WhiteG · #9	31	11	4-8	1-5	2-2	+13	6	1
J. BrownG · #7	35	32	11-20	1-4	9-9	+23	6	5
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	18	15	6-10	1-2	2-2	+10	7	0
C. BasseyC · #99	2	2	1-1	—	—	-5	1	0
P. PritchardG · #11	31	19	8-16	3-7	—	+25	0	7
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	-8	1	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	25	3	1-4	1-3	—	+10	8	3
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	10	0	0-2	—	—	+2	3	0
Team		120	44-92	14-39	18-19		49	22
DNP: A. Williams, J. Walsh

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

36-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-92

FG %

10-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-39

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Feb 20

BOS121@

GS110

Mar 18

GS99@

BOS120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+45518%

BOS-62586%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -11.5↗SpreadBet BOS -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat GS 120-99. J. Brown paced them with 32 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 22 REB · 14 AST

GS 31

Bench(7)

47 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 46

BOSstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST

GS 64

Bench(7)

39 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 34

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	23	27	23	26	99
BOS	36	27	26	31	120

Period scoring

GS won 0 · BOS won 3

Green 6

Brown 19

Santos 9

Garza 7

Podziemski 7

Pritchard 7

II 8

Queta 6

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

40%

36-90

48%

44-92

23%

10-43

3PT

36%

14-39

71%

17-24

95%

18-19

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·23.3
Celtics defensive team rebound
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·28.0
Pat Spencer misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·43.2
Max Shulga bad pass turnover (Pat Spencer steals)
·
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·53.4
Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 99·BOS 120
Q4·53.4
Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 98·BOS 120
Q4·53.4
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
GS 97·BOS 120
Q4·1:05
Nate Williams defensive goaltending violation
·
GS 97·BOS 120
Q4·1:05
Charles Bassey makes 5-foot layup (Max Shulga assists)
·
GS 97·BOS 120
Q4·1:16
Nate Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
GS 97·BOS 118
Q4·1:16
Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
GS 96·BOS 118
Q4·1:16
Max Shulga personal foul
GS 95·BOS 118
Q4·1:26
Will Richard defensive rebound
GS 95·BOS 118
Q4·1:28
Max Shulga misses 26-foot three point jumper
GS 95·BOS 118
Q4·1:40
Will Richard makes free throw 1 of 1
GS 95·BOS 118
Q4·1:40
Max Shulga shooting foul
GS 94·BOS 118
Q4·1:40
Will Richard makes dunk (Nate Williams assists)
· ·
GS 94·BOS 118
Q4·1:44
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·1:46
Hugo Gonzalez misses tip shot
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·1:46
Hugo Gonzalez offensive rebound
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·1:47
Hugo Gonzalez misses driving floating jump shot
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·1:58
Charles Bassey defensive rebound
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·1:59
Pat Spencer misses 16-foot two point shot
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·2:14
Charles Bassey enters the game for Luka Garza
·
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·2:14
Max Shulga enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·2:14
Baylor Scheierman personal foul
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·2:23
Luka Garza makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Baylor Scheierman assists)
·
GS 92·BOS 118
Q4·2:36
Omer Yurtseven makes tip in dunk
GS 92·BOS 116
Q4·2:36
Omer Yurtseven offensive rebound
GS 90·BOS 116

Betting line

BOS -11.5·O/U 216.5·GS +455/BOS -625

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Golden State Warriors, 120–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -11.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

BOS

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.2

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR