NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9SA

BOS

43-22

116125

48-17

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -3.5

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

27.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

30.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 15pp · 1st Quarter · 1:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. TatumF · #0	27	24	10-24	4-14	—	-1	5	2
S. HauserF · #30	34	11	4-10	3-8	—	-9	7	3
N. QuetaC · #88	19	5	1-3	—	3-4	-10	4	1
D. WhiteG · #9	40	34	11-22	3-11	9-11	-14	5	7
J. BrownG · #7	15	8	4-8	—	—	+1	2	7
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
L. GarzaC · #52	24	3	1-3	1-3	—	+3	0	1
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	33	22	8-11	6-9	—	-12	3	2
B. ScheiermanG · #55	35	6	2-6	2-5	—	-10	6	3
J. WalshG · #27	1	1	—	—	1-2	+3	0	0
M. ShulgaG · #44	1	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	10	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	5	0
Team		116	42-89	19-51	13-17		37	27

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	0	0-4	0-4	—	0	5	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	37	39	11-20	8-15	9-12	+5	11	3
D. FoxG · #4	35	25	11-14	2-3	1-3	+2	3	9
D. VassellG · #24	32	14	5-9	2-5	2-4	+13	2	2
S. CastleG · #5	34	18	6-12	3-8	3-4	+12	9	6
Bench
K. JohnsonF · #3	24	8	3-7	2-4	—	+6	6	0
C. BryantF · #11	13	8	3-8	2-7	—	-3	0	0
M. PlumleeC · #45	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	11	4	1-4	—	2-2	+6	3	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	26	9	4-7	1-1	—	+4	4	5
Team		125	44-85	20-47	17-25		44	27
DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

Home

42-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-85

FG %

19-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-47

13-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Jan 11

SA100@

BOS95

Mar 11

BOS116@

SA125today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13642%

SA-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -3.5↗SpreadBet SA -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat BOS 125-116. V. Wembanyama led the way with 39 points and 11 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST

GS 67

Bench(7)

34 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 28

SAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 80

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS1st Quarter · 1:09 · 29-22

+15pp→ 64% WP

Hugo Gonzalez · blocks Luke Kornet 's 2-foot alley oop layup

BOS2nd Quarter · 2:35 · 56-51

+10pp→ 60% WP

Jayson Tatum · makes 15-foot step back jumpshot

BOS4th Quarter · 6:38 · 105-106

+11pp→ 38% WP

Baylor Scheierman · makes 25-foot three pointer (Luka Garza assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	31	27	32	26	116
SA	29	29	39	28	125

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · SA won 3

White 7

Fox 6

White 6

Wembanyama 12

White 19

Wembanyama 14

Jr. 11

Wembanyama 10

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

47%

42-89

52%

44-85

37%

19-51

3PT

43%

20-47

76%

13-17

68%

17-25

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·4.7
shot clock turnover
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·27.5
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·32.9
Baylor Scheierman misses running pullup jump shot
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·37.7
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 1 of 1
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
Dylan Harper enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
Mason Plumlee enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
Carter Bryant enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
Max Shulga shooting foul
BOS 116·SA 125
Q4·40.9
De'Aaron Fox makes driving layup
BOS 116·SA 125
+0.8pp
Q4·52.4
Ron Harper Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amari Williams assists)
· ·
BOS 116·SA 123
−0.9pp
Q4·56.9
Max Shulga enters the game for Sam Hauser
·
BOS 113·SA 123
Q4·56.9
Amari Williams enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 113·SA 123
Q4·56.9
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Jayson Tatum
·
BOS 113·SA 123
Q4·56.9
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 113·SA 123
Q4·56.9
De'Aaron Fox makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 113·SA 123
+0.5pp
Q4·1:12
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
BOS 113·SA 121
Q4·1:16
Derrick White misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 113·SA 121
+1pp
Q4·1:25
Stephon Castle makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
BOS 113·SA 121
+5pp
Q4·1:43
Jayson Tatum makes 24-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)
·
BOS 113·SA 118
−4pp
Q4·1:51
Victor Wembanyama offensive foul turnover
BOS 110·SA 118
Q4·1:51
Victor Wembanyama offensive foul
BOS 110·SA 118
−1pp
Q4·2:09
Ron Harper Jr. makes 23-foot running jump shot (Sam Hauser assists)
· ·
BOS 110·SA 118
−1pp
Q4·2:12
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 107·SA 118
Q4·2:14
Victor Wembanyama misses 12-foot two point shot
BOS 107·SA 118
Q4·2:38
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 107·SA 118
Q4·2:38
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 106·SA 118

Betting line

SA -3.5·O/U 221.5·BOS +136/SA -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Boston Celtics, 125–116.

SA -3.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Jayson TatumBOS · F
TOUCHES8998
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.3%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR