NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11BKN

MEM

23-40

115126

BKN

17-47

NBAMon, Mar 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBKN -1.5

MEM · top performer

Javon Small

G · #10

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Day'Ron Sharpe

C · #20

18.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 10:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	32	15	5-10	2-5	3-3	+5	4	1
G. JacksonF · #45	26	18	8-21	1-5	1-2	-26	4	4
J. WellsF · #0	26	17	6-12	3-6	2-2	-12	5	2
C. SpencerG · #24	26	6	2-4	1-2	1-1	-8	2	8
J. SmallG · #10	32	19	7-14	2-4	3-5	+4	7	3
Bench
J. MashackG · #21	31	7	3-6	0-1	1-2	-7	6	2
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	29	13	4-12	1-4	4-4	-3	0	4
R. RupertG · #32	36	20	5-13	4-8	6-6	-8	8	1
Team		115	40-92	14-35	21-25		36	25
DNP: B. Clarke, T. Hendricks, C. Coward, T. Jerome

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. ClowneyF · #21	20	10	3-9	1-3	3-4	-10	3	3
D. WolfF · #2	28	14	5-12	2-6	2-3	+1	9	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	21	9	3-5	—	3-3	+3	8	5
D. PowellG · #4	27	9	3-7	3-6	—	-3	3	2
N. TraoreG · #88	23	17	6-9	4-5	1-2	+11	1	4
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	23	6	2-2	2-2	—	+31	3	4
E.J. LiddellF · #9	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	-10	1	0
Z. WilliamsF · #1	19	11	4-7	1-2	2-3	+22	4	4
C. JohnsonF · #31	5	4	2-2	—	—	-10	1	0
D. SharpeC · #20	18	19	8-11	1-1	2-2	+16	5	2
O. AgbajiG · #30	22	18	8-9	2-3	—	+14	3	1
T. EtienneG · #10	5	3	1-4	1-3	—	-10	0	1
B. SarafG · #77	25	4	1-6	0-1	2-2	0	2	7
Team		126	47-85	17-33	15-19		43	35
DNP: J. Minott, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

40-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-85

FG %

14-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-33

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 11

BKN98@

MEM103

Mar 9

MEM115@

BKN126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BKN -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+10250%

BKN-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BKN -1.5↗SpreadBet BKN -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BKN beat MEM 126-115. D. Sharpe led with 19 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

40 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 32

BKNstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 52

Bench(8)

67 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST

GS 63

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN2nd Quarter · 3:33 · 47-56

+8pp→ 74% WP

Day'Ron Sharpe · makes free throw 1 of 2

BKN3rd Quarter · 5.3 · 86-91

+8pp→ 70% WP

Javon Small · misses free throw 2 of 2

MEM4th Quarter · 10:15 · 88-98

+9pp→ 19% WP

Ziaire Williams · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	31	26	29	29	115
BKN	33	32	26	35	126

Period scoring

MEM won 1 · BKN won 3

Rupert 8

Claxton 6

Rupert 8

Sharpe 11

Small 8

Wolf 9

Small 11

Agbaji 9

MEM

BKN

Shooting comparison

MEM

BKN

43%

40-92

55%

47-85

40%

14-35

3PT

52%

17-33

84%

21-25

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 115·BKN 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 115·BKN 126
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MEM 115·BKN 126
Q4·1.3
Tyson Etienne makes 25-foot turnaround jump shot
MEM 115·BKN 126
Q4·18.2
Javon Small makes 1-foot running dunk
MEM 115·BKN 123
Q4·20.6
Ben Saraf bad pass turnover (Javon Small steals)
·
MEM 113·BKN 123
Q4·31.9
Javon Small makes 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 113·BKN 123
Q4·38.6
Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound
MEM 110·BKN 123
Q4·42.9
Tyson Etienne misses driving layup
MEM 110·BKN 123
Q4·53.1
Walter Clayton Jr. makes driving layup
MEM 110·BKN 123
Q4·1:02
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:02
Chaney Johnson blocks Olivier-Maxence Prosper 's 8-foot step back jumpshot
·
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:16
E.J. Liddell out of bounds bad pass turnover
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:22
Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Chaney Johnson steals)
·
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:35
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:37
E.J. Liddell misses 22-foot running jump shot
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:41
Chaney Johnson defensive rebound
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:45
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:49
Tyson Etienne lost ball turnover (Javon Small steals)
·
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·1:59
Jahmai Mashack makes driving layup (Rayan Rupert assists)
·
MEM 108·BKN 123
Q4·2:09
Javon Small defensive rebound
MEM 106·BKN 123
Q4·2:12
Rayan Rupert blocks Ben Saraf 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MEM 106·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 106·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound
MEM 105·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Drake Powell
·
MEM 105·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 105·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Chaney Johnson shooting foul
MEM 104·BKN 123
Q4·2:33
Javon Small misses driving layup
MEM 104·BKN 123
Q4·2:57
E.J. Liddell makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Ben Saraf assists)
·
MEM 104·BKN 123
Q4·3:08
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 104·BKN 121

Betting line

BKN -1.5·O/U 220.5·MEM +102/BKN -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rooklyn Nets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 126–115.

BKN -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 220.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 110 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Julius RandleBKN
17.3± 6.4high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high

Assists

Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM
4.7± 2.9high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
4.6± 2.2low

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

BKN

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

45.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.7

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR