NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20NO

WSH

16-47

118138

21-45

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriesNO wins series 2-0VegasNO -11.5

WSH · top performer

Trae Young

G · #3

15.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 18pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:10

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. BlackF · #14	31	10	4-11	2-6	—	-17	4	2
A. SarrC · #20	18	7	3-7	1-3	—	-2	4	1
T. YoungG · #3	18	17	4-6	3-5	6-8	0	4	8
B. CoulibalyG · #0	24	5	1-12	1-7	2-2	-13	4	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	22	20	7-13	4-7	2-2	-2	4	1
Bench
A. GillF · #16	22	11	5-7	1-3	—	-19	2	0
J. ReeseF · #15	26	5	1-4	—	3-4	-2	9	3
S. CooperG · #13	10	5	1-3	0-1	3-4	-4	1	4
B. CarringtonG · #7	23	9	3-6	2-5	1-1	-8	3	4
J. HardyG · #8	21	10	4-10	0-4	2-3	-17	3	3
W. RileyG · #27	25	19	8-12	0-1	3-3	-16	3	0
Team		118	41-91	14-42	22-27		41	27
DNP: J. Champagnie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	17	4	2-6	0-1	—	+1	2	0
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	23	20	6-8	—	8-11	+3	2	1
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	29	24	7-14	4-9	6-6	+11	5	4
D. MurrayG · #5	24	19	6-9	0-1	7-9	+15	6	2
S. BeyG · #41	29	23	9-17	0-4	5-10	+15	10	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	4	5	1-2	1-1	2-2	-1	2	0
D. JordanC · #6	19	2	—	—	2-2	+8	5	1
D. QueenC · #22	25	13	5-9	1-2	2-2	+17	4	5
Y. MissiC · #21	15	2	1-1	—	—	+15	2	0
M. PeavyG · #14	4	2	1-2	—	—	-1	0	0
B. McGowensG · #11	23	4	1-2	—	2-2	+13	1	3
J. HawkinsG · #24	4	2	1-3	0-1	—	-1	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	24	18	7-16	1-4	3-3	+5	5	7
Team		138	47-89	7-23	37-47		44	25
DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

Home

41-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-89

FG %

14-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-23

22-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

37-47

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO wins series 2-0

Jan 10

NO128@

WSH107

Mar 8

WSH118@

NO138today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+40020%

NO-53584%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -11.5↗SpreadBet NO -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat WSH 138-118. T. Murphy III led with 24 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. NO outscored the other side 36-25 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 39

Bench(6)

59 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

NOstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST

GS 79

Bench(8)

48 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 46

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH2nd Quarter · 11:10 · 40-32

+18pp→ 46% WP

Yves Missi · enters the game for Jeremiah Fears

WSH2nd Quarter · 8:41 · 45-42

+7pp→ 33% WP

Jaden Hardy · makes free throw 1 of 1

NO2nd Quarter · 6:35 · 47-52

+17pp→ 84% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · misses 26-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	35	30	28	25	118
NO	32	35	35	36	138

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · NO won 3

Young 8

Bey 6

Young 6

III 11

Johnson 10

Williamson 10

Riley 7

Queen 8

WSH

Shooting comparison

WSH

45%

41-91

53%

47-89

33%

14-42

3PT

30%

7-23

81%

22-27

79%

37-47

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·0.0
Derik Queen bad pass turnover (Julian Reese steals)
·
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·9.9
Will Riley out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·26.9
Julian Reese defensive rebound
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·29.8
Jordan Hawkins misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
·
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·47.3
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 118·NO 138
Q4·47.3
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 117·NO 138
Q4·47.3
Micah Peavy shooting foul
WSH 116·NO 138
Q4·57.8
Micah Peavy makes driving layup (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
WSH 116·NO 138
Q4·1:19
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 116·NO 136
Q4·1:19
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 115·NO 136
Q4·1:19
Sharife Cooper misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 115·NO 136
Q4·1:19
Karlo Matkovic shooting foul
WSH 115·NO 136
Q4·1:28
Karlo Matkovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
WSH 115·NO 136
Q4·1:40
Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 115·NO 133
Q4·1:40
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:40
Jaden Hardy misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:40
Pelicans Full timeout
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:40
Karlo Matkovic shooting foul
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:47
Julian Reese defensive rebound
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:49
Micah Peavy misses driving floating jump shot
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·1:59
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·2:01
Will Riley misses driving layup
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·2:11
Will Riley defensive rebound
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·2:13
Jordan Hawkins misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·2:36
Will Riley makes 3-foot running dunk (Jaden Hardy assists)
·
WSH 114·NO 133
Q4·2:37
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
WSH 112·NO 133
Q4·2:38
Karlo Matkovic misses tip shot
WSH 112·NO 133
Q4·2:38
Karlo Matkovic offensive rebound
WSH 112·NO 133

Betting line

NO -11.5·O/U 244.5·WSH +400/NO -535

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Washington Wizards, 138–118. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NO -11.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 244.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

53.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR