NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28TOR

TOR

34-23

12294

MIL

24-31

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-1VegasTOR -4.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

29.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

24.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	31	22	8-17	2-6	4-6	+10	2	6
R. BarrettF · #9	27	7	2-10	0-3	3-4	+2	6	3
J. PoeltlC · #19	26	6	3-4	—	—	+14	8	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	31	32	11-19	5-11	5-5	+12	3	9
J. WalterG · #14	30	9	3-10	3-8	—	+14	6	3
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	23	15	6-12	3-8	—	+22	4	4
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	3	2	1-1	—	—	+1	1	0
J. BattleF · #77	9	5	2-2	1-1	—	+11	3	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	20	8	3-4	0-1	2-4	+13	4	0
G. TempleG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	23	12	4-9	2-6	2-2	+26	6	6
G. DickG · #1	16	4	1-6	0-2	2-2	+14	2	1
Team		122	44-94	16-46	18-23		45	34

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	18	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	-6	4	1
M. TurnerC · #3	25	14	6-11	2-7	—	-5	4	1
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	31	21	8-11	1-1	4-6	-16	2	10
A. GreenG · #20	26	3	1-6	1-4	—	-8	1	1
R. RollinsG · #13	33	21	6-17	4-7	5-6	-16	9	1
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	18	6	3-8	0-1	—	-15	7	1
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	4	3	1-1	—	1-1	-6	1	0
P. NanceF · #35	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	0	0
O. DiengF · #21	15	0	0-4	0-2	—	-10	5	0
J. SimsC · #00	24	4	2-3	—	—	-18	7	2
G. HarrisG · #11	7	2	1-3	0-2	—	-6	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	7	0	0-3	0-1	—	-6	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	21	15	5-9	1-2	4-4	-18	3	1
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	7	2	1-4	0-1	—	-6	3	0
Team		94	35-85	9-32	15-19		46	18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

44-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-85

FG %

16-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 3-1

Oct 24

MIL122@

TOR116

Nov 5

MIL100@

TOR128

Dec 19

TOR111@

MIL105

Feb 22

TOR122@

MIL94today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-16262%

MIL+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat MIL 122-94. I. Quickley paced them with 32 PTS, 3 REB, 9 AST. TOR outscored the other side 38-24 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST

GS 68

Bench(7)

46 PTS · 20 REB · 11 AST

GS 46

MILstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 47

Bench(9)

32 PTS · 26 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL1st Quarter · 6:33 · 11-12

+7pp→ 53% WP

Brandon Ingram · personal foul

MIL2nd Quarter · 7:48 · 34-38

+6pp→ 56% WP

Ryan Rollins · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

MIL3rd Quarter · 9:35 · 62-59

+6pp→ 34% WP

Ryan Rollins · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	22	38	32	30	122
MIL	27	24	22	21	94

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · MIL won 1

Ingram 9

Jr. 10

Quickley 18

Rollins 9

Ingram 9

Rollins 9

Murray-Boyles 5

Jr. 7

TOR

MIL

Shooting comparison

TOR

MIL

47%

44-94

41%

35-85

35%

16-46

3PT

28%

9-32

78%

18-23

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·0.1
Bucks offensive team rebound
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·1.5
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·5.0
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·6.5
Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Andre Jackson Jr. 's 2-foot driving layup
·
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·12.6
shot clock turnover
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·36.6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 122·MIL 94
Q4·36.6
Gradey Dick shooting foul
TOR 122·MIL 93
Q4·36.6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup
TOR 122·MIL 93
Q4·50.1
Jamison Battle makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)
·
TOR 122·MIL 91
Q4·1:12
Gary Harris makes 12-foot two point shot
TOR 120·MIL 91
Q4·1:23
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Gradey Dick assists)
·
TOR 120·MIL 89
Q4·1:30
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
TOR 118·MIL 89
Q4·1:32
Gary Trent Jr. misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
TOR 118·MIL 89
Q4·1:46
Gradey Dick makes 3-foot running dunk
TOR 118·MIL 89
Q4·1:47
Ousmane Dieng bad pass turnover (Gradey Dick steals)
·
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·1:57
Gradey Dick out of bounds bad pass turnover
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:10
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:12
Gary Harris misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:27
Garrett Temple enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:27
Jamal Shead personal take foul
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:30
Jamal Shead makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 116·MIL 89
Q4·2:30
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 115·MIL 89
Q4·2:30
Jamal Shead makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 115·MIL 89
Q4·2:30
Ousmane Dieng shooting foul
TOR 114·MIL 89
Q4·2:31
Jamal Shead offensive rebound
TOR 114·MIL 89
Q4·2:32
Gradey Dick misses 22-foot three point jumper
TOR 114·MIL 89
Q4·2:54
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 114·MIL 89
Q4·2:56
Gary Trent Jr. misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 114·MIL 89

Betting line

TOR -4.5·O/U 219.5·TOR -162/MIL +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 122–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TOR -4.5 cashed (won by 28). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR · G
DEFL3.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

MIL

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR