NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ATL

BKN

15-41

104115

ATL

28-31

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-0VegasATL -9.5

BKN · top performer

Nic Claxton

C · #33

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 2:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	35	18	8-19	1-8	1-1	-15	7	6
N. ClowneyF · #21	31	12	3-8	2-6	4-4	-7	5	1
N. ClaxtonC · #33	31	15	6-11	0-1	3-5	-19	8	5
E. DeminG · #8	28	13	5-11	2-5	1-2	-18	1	4
N. TraoreG · #88	35	11	4-14	1-3	2-4	+7	1	5
Bench
D. WolfF · #2	18	5	2-4	1-3	—	+8	4	4
D. SharpeC · #20	17	11	4-6	—	3-4	+8	5	2
T. MannG · #14	17	6	2-3	2-3	—	0	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	14	6	2-4	2-3	—	+1	1	1
D. PowellG · #4	14	7	2-5	1-2	2-2	-20	1	1
Team		104	38-85	12-34	16-22		34	29
DNP: J. Wilson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	32	13	5-7	1-2	2-2	+17	11	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	26	11-22	0-3	4-5	+8	12	4
C. McCollumG · #3	32	16	5-12	3-7	3-4	+26	8	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	17	4-12	3-9	6-6	+29	3	6
D. DanielsG · #5	33	7	3-8	0-2	1-2	+11	10	8
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	13	9	4-5	1-1	—	-16	0	0
M. GueyeF · #18	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	0	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	20	7	3-7	1-3	—	-9	1	0
J. LandaleC · #31	16	17	6-11	3-3	2-2	-6	6	1
G. VincentG · #4	11	3	1-2	1-2	—	-8	1	3
Team		115	42-87	13-33	18-21		52	28
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

38-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-87

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-33

16-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-0

Oct 29

ATL117@

BKN112

Feb 22

BKN104@

ATL115today

Mar 12

BKN97@

ATL108

Apr 3

ATL141@

BKN107

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+32024%

ATL-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -9.5↗SpreadBet ATL -9.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat BKN 115-104. N. Alexander-Walker led with 17 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 26-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 22 REB · 21 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 31

ATLstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 44 REB · 23 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 11:42 · 90-89

+11pp→ 39% WP

Danny Wolf · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 2:28 · 104-105

+16pp→ 60% WP

CJ McCollum · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 1:53 · 104-107

+11pp→ 89% WP

Nolan Traore · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	30	26	31	17	104
ATL	32	28	29	26	115

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · ATL won 3

Jr. 9

Landale 10

Claxton 7

Kispert 9

Demin 8

Okongwu 11

Mann 6

Johnson 14

BKN

ATL

Shooting comparison

BKN

ATL

45%

38-85

48%

42-87

35%

12-34

3PT

39%

13-33

73%

16-22

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 104·ATL 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 104·ATL 115
Q4·10.6
CJ McCollum defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 115
Q4·13.7
Nic Claxton misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 104·ATL 115
Q4·32.8
Jalen Johnson makes running dunk (CJ McCollum assists)
·
BKN 104·ATL 115
Q4·38.3
Nolan Traore bad pass turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)
·
BKN 104·ATL 113
Q4·47.1
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 104·ATL 113
Q4·47.1
Hawks offensive team rebound
BKN 104·ATL 112
Q4·47.1
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
BKN 104·ATL 112
Q4·47.1
Noah Clowney personal foul
BKN 104·ATL 112
Q4·49.4
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 112
Q4·52.6
Nolan Traore misses driving layup
BKN 104·ATL 112
+0.9pp
Q4·58.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 104·ATL 112
−0.8pp
Q4·58.9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 104·ATL 111
Q4·58.9
Michael Porter Jr. personal foul
BKN 104·ATL 110
+2pp
Q4·1:10
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 110
+0.7pp
Q4·1:14
Michael Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·ATL 110
+10pp
Q4·1:23
Nets Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·ATL 110
−8pp
Q4·1:23
Jalen Johnson makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
BKN 104·ATL 110
+3pp
Q4·1:36
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 108
+1pp
Q4·1:39
Egor Demin misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
BKN 104·ATL 108
+4pp
Q4·1:53
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 1
BKN 104·ATL 108
−4pp
Q4·1:53
Nolan Traore shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·ATL 107
+11pp
Q4·1:53
Jalen Johnson makes 2-foot two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 104·ATL 107
+9pp
Q4·2:04
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 105
+2pp
Q4·2:07
Nolan Traore misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·ATL 105
+7pp
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 104·ATL 105
+16pp
Q4·2:45
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
BKN 104·ATL 102
+2pp
Q4·2:47
Michael Porter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 104·ATL 102
+6pp
Q4·3:03
Jalen Johnson offensive foul turnover
BKN 104·ATL 102

Betting line

ATL -9.5·O/U 227.5·BKN +320/ATL -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Brooklyn Nets, 115–104.

ATL -9.5 cashed (won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

ATL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR