NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LAL

PHI

29-22

115119

LAL

31-19

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasLAL -2.5

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

32.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Austin Reaves

G · #15

26.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 5:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	26	13	6-10	0-1	1-3	+1	3	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	39	35	13-19	1-2	8-8	+7	7	7
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	40	8	2-8	0-3	4-4	+4	4	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	37	26	11-22	1-9	3-4	+8	0	13
V. EdgecombeG · #77	39	19	7-16	3-7	2-2	-2	10	2
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	16	6	3-3	—	—	-11	2	2
J. EdwardsF · #11	5	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	1	0
A. BonaC · #30	11	2	1-2	—	—	-17	1	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	27	4	1-2	0-1	2-2	-10	0	2
Team		115	45-84	5-24	20-23		28	29
DNP: P. George, M. Beauchamp, J. Broome, A. Drummond, C. Bassey, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	37	17	7-17	0-3	3-3	-5	4	10
J. LaRaviaF · #12	23	14	5-7	0-2	4-5	-1	0	2
D. AytonC · #5	20	10	4-5	—	2-2	-13	6	0
M. SmartG · #36	31	7	2-5	2-3	1-4	-15	4	5
L. DoncicG · #77	16	10	3-10	0-4	4-4	-10	4	2
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	26	4	2-3	—	—	+23	4	4
R. HachimuraF · #28	35	14	5-7	2-2	2-2	+16	7	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	23	6	3-7	0-3	—	+16	6	1
D. KnechtF · #4	3	2	1-1	—	—	+4	1	0
A. ReavesG · #15	25	35	12-17	5-8	6-7	+5	6	2
Team		119	44-79	9-25	22-27		42	27
DNP: D. Timme, J. Hayes, N. Smith Jr., B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

45-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-79

FG %

5-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-25

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Dec 8

LAL112@

PHI108

Feb 6

PHI115@

LAL119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+11447%

LAL-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗SpreadBet LAL -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat PHI 119-115. A. Reaves led the way with 35 points and 6 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

14 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 8

LALstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 18 REB · 19 AST

GS 43

Bench(5)

61 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST

GS 54

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL4th Quarter · 11:21 · 87-88

+10pp→ 56% WP

Austin Reaves · makes 31-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 5:37 · 93-103

+15pp→ 95% WP

Joel Embiid · enters the game for Adem Bona

LAL4th Quarter · 12.3 · 115-119

+10pp→ 90% WP

Rui Hachimura · makes 3-foot dunk (Maxi Kleber assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	27	32	28	28	115
LAL	21	30	34	34	119

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · LAL won 2

Embiid 12

Doncic 8

Embiid 8

James 25

Embiid 10

Hachimura 9

Maxey 12

Reaves 13

PHI

LAL

Shooting comparison

PHI

LAL

54%

45-84

56%

44-79

21%

5-24

3PT

36%

9-25

87%

20-23

81%

22-27

Play-by-play · 456 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 115·LAL 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 115·LAL 119
+2pp
Q4·4.8
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
PHI 115·LAL 119
+2pp
Q4·7.1
Tyrese Maxey misses shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 115·LAL 119
+6pp
Q4·12.3
Rui Hachimura makes 3-foot dunk (Maxi Kleber assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 115·LAL 119
+10pp
Q4·27.0
Tyrese Maxey makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
PHI 115·LAL 117
−5pp
Q4·34.5
76ers Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
PHI 113·LAL 117
−10pp
Q4·34.5
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 113·LAL 117
Q4·34.5
Lakers offensive team rebound
PHI 113·LAL 116
−2pp
Q4·34.5
Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 113·LAL 116
−2pp
Q4·34.5
VJ Edgecombe personal foul
PHI 113·LAL 116
+3pp
Q4·36.4
VJ Edgecombe makes 28-foot three point jumper
PHI 113·LAL 116
−2pp
Q4·39.4
LeBron James bad pass turnover (VJ Edgecombe steals)
· ·
PHI 110·LAL 116
Q4·39.4
Tyrese Maxey makes two point shot
PHI 110·LAL 116
−1pp
Q4·45.7
LeBron James makes 3-foot driving dunk (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
PHI 108·LAL 116
+2pp
Q4·52.7
Joel Embiid makes layup (Tyrese Maxey assists)
·
PHI 108·LAL 114
−1pp
Q4·1:08
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 106·LAL 114
−1pp
Q4·1:08
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 106·LAL 113
Q4·1:08
Quentin Grimes shooting foul
PHI 106·LAL 112
+3pp
Q4·1:22
VJ Edgecombe makes 2-foot dunk (Joel Embiid assists)
·
PHI 106·LAL 112
−2pp
Q4·1:36
LeBron James makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
PHI 104·LAL 112
+3pp
Q4·1:47
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 104·LAL 110
+3pp
Q4·1:47
Maxi Kleber enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
PHI 103·LAL 110
Q4·1:47
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 103·LAL 110
−0.8pp
Q4·1:47
Rui Hachimura shooting foul
PHI 102·LAL 110
−4pp
Q4·1:53
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 102·LAL 110
Q4·1:56
Austin Reaves misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 102·LAL 110
−0.8pp
Q4·2:22
Joel Embiid makes 1-foot reverse layup (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)
·
PHI 102·LAL 110
−1pp
Q4·2:31
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 100·LAL 110
Q4·2:33
Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 100·LAL 110
−0.5pp

Betting line

LAL -2.5·O/U 236.5·PHI +114/LAL -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Philadelphia 76ers, 119–115. Decided by 4.

LAL -2.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

LAL

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.8

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR