NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4GS

28-24

10197

PHX

31-21

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-1VegasPHX -5.5

GS · top performer

Pat Spencer

G · #61

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Grayson Allen

G · #8

14.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 20pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	24	5	1-3	1-3	2-2	-1	5	1
G. SantosF · #15	36	18	6-9	3-6	3-5	+2	4	7
D. MeltonG · #8	25	17	6-14	2-9	3-4	+21	2	1
M. MoodyG · #4	31	6	2-7	2-7	—	+4	8	1
P. SpencerG · #61	32	20	6-11	6-10	2-2	-3	6	4
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	28	13	4-10	2-5	3-5	0	4	4
Q. PostC · #21	6	0	0-2	0-2	—	-2	2	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	19	15	6-11	3-6	—	+4	8	1
B. PodziemskiG · #2	12	0	0-3	0-3	—	-21	3	1
W. RichardG · #3	27	7	2-6	1-4	2-2	+16	3	2
Team		101	33-76	20-55	15-20		45	23
DNP: M. Leons

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	27	9	3-7	3-6	—	-5	1	5
D. BrooksF · #3	35	24	10-24	2-6	2-3	-6	6	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	23	11	5-6	—	1-1	+6	10	0
G. AllenG · #8	33	21	7-17	5-13	2-2	+4	5	4
C. GillespieG · #12	33	11	4-12	3-10	—	-10	3	4
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	3	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	25	6	3-4	—	—	-12	5	1
R. DunnF · #0	12	5	2-3	1-2	—	0	2	1
J. GoodwinG · #23	29	6	2-6	2-6	—	+7	2	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	20	4	2-3	—	—	+4	3	4
Team		97	38-82	16-43	5-6		37	22
DNP: R. Fleming, K. Maluach, K. Brea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

33-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-82

FG %

20-55

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-43

15-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

5-6

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-1

Nov 5

PHX107@

GS118

Dec 19

GS98@

PHX99

Dec 21

PHX116@

GS119

Feb 6

GS101@

PHX97today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

212.5

Defensive · -13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS+18036%

PHX-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -5.5↗SpreadBet PHX -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

212.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat PHX 101-97. P. Spencer led with 20 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 27-17 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 31

PHXstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS3rd Quarter · 2:41 · 71-72

+20pp→ 41% WP

Al Horford · lost ball turnover (Oso Ighodaro steals)

PHX4th Quarter · 1:39 · 95-97

+10pp→ 71% WP

Al Horford · bad pass turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)

GS4th Quarter · 28.7 · 99-97

+18pp→ 73% WP

Gui Santos · makes running layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	25	34	17	25	101
PHX	29	26	27	15	97

Period scoring

GS won 2 · PHX won 2

Spencer 6

Brooks 8

Spencer 9

Williams 20

Spencer 5

O'Neale 21

Horford 7

Ighodaro 14

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

43%

33-76

46%

38-82

36%

20-55

3PT

37%

16-43

75%

15-20

83%

5-6

Play-by-play · 425 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 101·PHX 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 101·PHX 97
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
GS 101·PHX 97
Q4·0.0
De'Anthony Melton makes running layup (Moses Moody assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 101·PHX 97
−9pp
Q4·6.1
Gary Payton II defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
GS 99·PHX 97
−8pp
Q4·9.4
Dillon Brooks misses 29-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
GS 99·PHX 97
−9pp
Q4·28.7
Draymond Green enters the game for Pat Spencer
·
GS 99·PHX 97
Q4·28.7
Gary Payton II enters the game for Gui Santos
·
GS 99·PHX 97
Q4·28.7
Suns Full timeout
GS 99·PHX 97
Q4·28.7
Gui Santos makes running layupBIG MOMENT
GS 99·PHX 97
−18pp
Q4·30.6
Moses Moody defensive rebound
GS 97·PHX 97
−1pp
Q4·33.1
Moses Moody blocks Collin Gillespie 's 8-foot driving layup
·
GS 97·PHX 97
−3pp
Q4·55.8
De'Anthony Melton makes 1-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 97·PHX 97
−10pp
Q4·1:05
Warriors Full timeout
GS 95·PHX 97
Q4·1:15
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
GS 95·PHX 97
−3pp
Q4·1:17
Dillon Brooks misses 11-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
GS 95·PHX 97
−9pp
Q4·1:39
Al Horford bad pass turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 95·PHX 97
+10pp
Q4·1:49
De'Anthony Melton vs. Jordan Goodwin (Al Horford gains possession)
· ·
GS 95·PHX 97
Q4·2:00
Moses Moody defensive rebound
GS 95·PHX 97
−2pp
Q4·2:04
Collin Gillespie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
GS 95·PHX 97
−6pp
Q4·2:18
Al Horford makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
GS 95·PHX 97
−6pp
Q4·2:36
Moses Moody defensive rebound
GS 93·PHX 97
−2pp
Q4·2:39
Dillon Brooks misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
GS 93·PHX 97
−5pp
Q4·2:54
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
GS 93·PHX 97
Q4·2:54
Gary Payton II personal foul
GS 93·PHX 97
+1pp
Q4·3:03
Al Horford makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
GS 93·PHX 97
+5pp
Q4·3:03
Gui Santos enters the game for Will Richard
·
GS 92·PHX 97
Q4·3:03
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
GS 92·PHX 97
Q4·3:03
Al Horford makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 92·PHX 97
−2pp
Q4·3:03
Oso Ighodaro shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 91·PHX 97
−9pp

Betting line

PHX -5.5·O/U 212.5·GS +180/PHX -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 101–97. Decided by 4.

GS +5.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 212.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHX

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR