NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10CHA

CHA

24-28

10999

HOU

31-19

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasHOU -4.5

CHA · top performer

Josh Green

G · #10

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

20.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	32	18	7-17	3-8	1-1	+14	6	4
M. DiabateF · #14	29	7	3-5	—	1-2	+14	12	4
B. MillerF · #24	21	11	4-9	1-4	2-2	-9	3	1
L. BallG · #1	29	20	7-19	5-12	1-2	+8	6	4
K. KnueppelG · #7	32	24	8-13	2-5	6-6	+3	4	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	16	2	0-3	0-3	2-2	-4	3	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	19	2	0-2	—	2-2	-4	4	1
J. GreenG · #10	23	14	4-4	3-3	3-3	+18	1	2
T. MannG · #23	17	5	1-10	1-5	2-2	+8	5	3
S. JamesG · #4	22	6	2-5	2-3	—	+2	2	0
Team		109	36-87	17-43	20-22		46	21
DNP: T. Salaun, C. White

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	31	31	11-21	3-4	6-8	-11	3	1
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	17	7-10	1-3	2-3	-18	7	2
A. SengunC · #28	28	7	3-11	0-1	1-2	-6	9	5
J. OkogieG · #20	21	6	2-2	1-1	1-2	-22	1	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	33	8	3-7	—	2-2	-11	5	7
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	8	6	2-4	1-3	1-1	+12	2	1
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	16	2	1-4	0-2	—	-20	3	2
I. CrawfordF · #27	16	5	2-3	1-2	—	+9	1	2
C. CapelaC · #30	17	6	3-5	—	—	+5	5	0
A. HolidayG · #0	8	0	0-2	—	—	+12	1	1
J. DavisonG · #4	8	4	2-4	0-1	—	+12	1	3
R. SheppardG · #15	22	7	2-10	1-6	2-2	-12	2	0
Team		99	38-83	8-23	15-20		40	24
DNP: T. Eason

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

36-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-83

FG %

17-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-23

20-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Feb 6

CHA109@

HOU99today

Feb 20

HOU105@

CHA101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+15439%

HOU-18565%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat HOU 109-99. J. Green led with 14 PTS, 1 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 32-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 31

HOUstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

30 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA2nd Quarter · 1.7 · 59-49

+8pp→ 79% WP

Josh Green · makes free throw 1 of 3

HOU3rd Quarter · 9:43 · 65-58

+17pp→ 35% WP

Josh Green · enters the game for Brandon Miller

HOU2nd Quarter · 4:08 · 51-38

+19pp→ 19% WP

Alperen Sengun · lost ball turnover (Josh Green steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	29	32	30	18	109
HOU	26	23	26	24	99

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · HOU won 1

Ball 10

Durant 11

Green 8

Jr. 9

Knueppel 9

Durant 15

Miller 7

Ball 50

CHA

HOU

Shooting comparison

CHA

HOU

41%

36-87

46%

38-83

40%

17-43

3PT

35%

8-23

91%

20-22

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·2.6
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·4.8
Jeff Green misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·7.1
shot clock turnover
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·31.2
Clint Capela makes running dunk (JD Davison assists)
·
CHA 109·HOU 99
Q4·35.3
Kon Knueppel bad pass turnover (Isaiah Crawford steals)
·
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·44.5
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·44.5
Brandon Miller misses tip shot
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·44.5
Brandon Miller offensive rebound
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·45.6
Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·1:07
JD Davison makes 8-foot two point shot
CHA 109·HOU 97
Q4·1:11
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 109·HOU 95
Q4·1:11
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 108·HOU 95
Q4·1:11
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 108·HOU 95
Q4·1:11
Clint Capela shooting foul
CHA 107·HOU 95
Q4·1:29
Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Crawford assists)
· ·
CHA 107·HOU 95
Q4·1:39
Miles Bridges makes 28-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)
·
CHA 107·HOU 92
Q4·2:02
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Grant Williams
·
CHA 104·HOU 92
Q4·2:02
Miles Bridges enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
CHA 104·HOU 92
Q4·2:02
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 104·HOU 92
Q4·2:02
JD Davison makes two point shot (Isaiah Crawford assists)
·
CHA 104·HOU 92
Q4·2:05
Kon Knueppel lost ball turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)
· ·
CHA 104·HOU 90
Q4·2:27
Clint Capela makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (JD Davison assists)
·
CHA 104·HOU 90
Q4·2:37
Clint Capela defensive rebound
CHA 104·HOU 88
Q4·2:37
LaMelo Ball misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 104·HOU 88
Q4·2:57
JD Davison bad pass turnover (Ryan Kalkbrenner steals)
·
CHA 104·HOU 88
Q4·3:06
JD Davison defensive rebound
CHA 104·HOU 88
Q4·3:07
Grant Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 104·HOU 88
Q4·3:28
LaMelo Ball defensive rebound
CHA 104·HOU 88

Betting line

HOU -4.5·O/U 218.5·CHA +154/HOU -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 109–99.

CHA +4.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

HOU

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR