NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20ORL

BKN

13-37

98118

ORL

26-24

NBAThu, Feb 5FinalSeriesORL wins series 3-0VegasORL -9.5

BKN · top performer

Egor Demin

G · #8

21.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Jalen Suggs

G · #4

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 3:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	32	9	2-13	2-7	3-3	-23	2	2
N. ClowneyF · #21	22	0	0-6	0-4	—	-14	4	0
N. ClaxtonC · #33	29	14	6-8	0-1	2-5	-20	6	3
E. DeminG · #8	32	26	8-12	6-10	4-5	-4	4	2
N. TraoreG · #88	38	21	7-13	3-7	4-5	-11	3	7
Bench
Z. WilliamsF · #1	17	1	0-2	0-1	1-3	-18	2	0
D. WolfF · #2	22	13	5-11	1-4	2-4	+1	6	2
D. SharpeC · #20	13	4	2-4	—	—	-6	5	0
D. PowellG · #4	19	6	3-9	0-4	0-1	-2	3	2
B. SarafG · #77	16	4	1-4	0-1	2-3	-3	1	4
Team		98	34-82	12-39	18-29		36	22
DNP: J. Wilson, T. Mann

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	31	22	8-13	0-2	6-8	+14	5	4
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	22	7	3-6	1-2	—	+10	8	1
D. BaneG · #3	32	23	7-14	1-7	8-9	+20	3	4
J. SuggsG · #4	29	15	6-9	3-5	—	+24	11	11
A. BlackG · #0	28	18	6-12	2-5	4-5	+18	2	5
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	12	14	6-10	0-2	2-3	+6	5	0
J. IsaacF · #1	8	0	—	—	—	+10	1	1
J. CainF · #8	6	3	1-1	1-1	—	-6	1	1
T. da SilvaF · #23	18	2	1-4	0-1	—	+12	2	0
N. PendaF · #93	14	0	—	—	—	+1	2	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	6	6	3-3	—	—	-6	1	0
J. HowardG · #13	12	7	3-6	1-4	—	-9	0	2
J. RichardsonG · #11	23	1	0-4	0-3	1-2	+6	1	2
Team		118	44-82	9-32	21-27		42	32

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

34-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-82

FG %

12-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

18-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 3-0

Nov 15

BKN98@

ORL105

Jan 8

ORL104@

BKN103

Feb 6

BKN98@

ORL118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

214.5

Defensive · -11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+31024%

ORL-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -9.5↗SpreadBet ORL -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

214.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat BKN 118-98. J. Suggs stuffed the line with 15 PTS, 11 REB, and 11 AST. ORL outscored the other side 27-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 15

ORLstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 25 AST

GS 91

Bench(8)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 24

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	19	21	27	31	98
ORL	27	29	32	30	118

Period scoring

BKN won 1 · ORL won 3

Demin 8

Suggs 5

Claxton 7

Bane 13

Demin 11

Black 8

Traore 8

Bitadze 6

BKN

ORL

Shooting comparison

BKN

ORL

41%

34-82

54%

44-82

31%

12-39

3PT

28%

9-32

62%

18-29

78%

21-27

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 98·ORL 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 98·ORL 118
Q4·1.3
shot clock turnover
BKN 98·ORL 118
Q4·26.2
Nolan Traore makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Saraf assists)
·
BKN 98·ORL 118
Q4·29.6
Drake Powell offensive rebound
BKN 95·ORL 118
Q4·34.2
Goga Bitadze blocks Drake Powell 's 25-foot three point jumper
·
BKN 95·ORL 118
Q4·47.0
Jett Howard makes 6-foot two point shot
BKN 95·ORL 118
Q4·1:02
Danny Wolf makes running dunk
BKN 95·ORL 116
Q4·1:04
Danny Wolf defensive rebound
BKN 93·ORL 116
Q4·1:08
Jase Richardson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 93·ORL 116
Q4·1:17
Egor Demin makes free throw 3 of 3
BKN 93·ORL 116
Q4·1:17
Egor Demin makes free throw 2 of 3
BKN 92·ORL 116
Q4·1:17
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 91·ORL 116
Q4·1:17
Egor Demin misses free throw 1 of 3
BKN 91·ORL 116
Q4·1:17
Noah Penda shooting foul
BKN 91·ORL 116
Q4·1:29
Jett Howard makes 1-foot running dunk
BKN 91·ORL 116
Q4·1:31
Ben Saraf bad pass turnover (Jett Howard steals)
·
BKN 91·ORL 114
Q4·1:36
Goga Bitadze makes tip shot
BKN 91·ORL 114
Q4·1:36
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
BKN 91·ORL 112
Q4·1:41
Jett Howard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 91·ORL 112
Q4·2:02
Danny Wolf makes 27-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)
·
BKN 91·ORL 112
Q4·2:05
Noah Penda personal foul
BKN 88·ORL 112
Q4·2:12
Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Noah Penda assists)
·
BKN 88·ORL 112
Q4·2:39
Ben Saraf makes driving layup (Nolan Traore assists)
·
BKN 88·ORL 109
Q4·2:51
Danny Wolf defensive rebound
BKN 86·ORL 109
Q4·2:54
Jett Howard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 86·ORL 109
Q4·3:02
Jase Richardson defensive rebound
BKN 86·ORL 109
Q4·3:05
Nolan Traore misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 86·ORL 109
Q4·3:27
Goga Bitadze makes alley oop layup (Jett Howard assists)
·
BKN 86·ORL 109
Q4·3:46
Jamal Cain defensive rebound
BKN 86·ORL 107

Betting line

ORL -9.5·O/U 214.5·BKN +310/ORL -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Brooklyn Nets, 118–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ORL -9.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 214.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

ORL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.9%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR