NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+33CLE

CLE

31-21

12491

LAC

23-27

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesCLE wins series 2-0VegasCLE -2.5

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

29.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 13pp · 1st Quarter · 2:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	20	5	2-5	1-3	—	+12	3	3
J. AllenC · #31	23	10	5-8	—	0-2	+20	11	3
D. MitchellG · #45	30	29	10-19	3-9	6-6	+24	5	9
S. MerrillG · #5	21	11	4-6	3-5	—	+21	1	0
J. TysonG · #20	25	17	7-10	3-3	0-3	+20	4	1
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	8	8	3-4	2-3	—	+5	1	1
T. EnarunaF · #21	7	2	1-2	—	—	+5	3	1
N. TomlinF · #35	20	4	1-7	0-4	2-2	+16	1	2
T. BryantC · #3	17	8	4-6	0-1	—	+8	8	0
D. SchroderG · #8	19	11	5-14	1-5	—	+15	2	6
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	25	7	3-5	1-2	—	+11	2	2
K. EllisG · #14	19	6	2-5	2-4	—	+3	3	0
T. ProctorG · #24	7	6	3-7	0-2	—	+5	0	2
Team		124	50-98	16-41	8-13		44	30

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	27	25	10-20	2-6	3-3	-4	7	4
J. CollinsF · #20	27	19	8-11	0-1	3-3	-33	7	0
B. LopezC · #11	23	5	2-6	1-4	—	-17	2	1
K. DunnG · #8	21	2	1-4	0-1	—	-24	3	6
K. SandersG · #4	20	4	2-6	0-3	—	-7	2	2
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	6	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	21	7	2-6	0-2	3-4	-9	2	0
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	25	10	4-4	—	2-2	-16	8	0
B. BogdanovicG · #10	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	-16	1	1
J. MillerG · #22	30	5	2-10	1-4	—	-25	4	3
K. BrownG · #24	9	10	4-5	2-3	—	0	0	0
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	3
C. ChristieG · #12	12	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	1	0
Team		91	37-80	6-28	11-12		37	20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

50-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-80

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

6-28

8-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 2-0

Nov 23

LAC105@

CLE120

Feb 5

CLE124@

LAC91today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-14860%

LAC+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -2.5↗SpreadBet CLE -2.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat LAC 124-91. D. Mitchell paced them with 29 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST. CLE outscored the other side 36-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 71

Bench(8)

52 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 49

LACstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 40

Bench(8)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC1st Quarter · 6:28 · 15-10

+10pp→ 28% WP

Kawhi Leonard · lost ball turnover (Dennis Schroder steals)

LAC1st Quarter · 2:27 · 27-16

+13pp→ 16% WP

Thomas Bryant · blocks Jordan Miller 's 2-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	36	26	32	30	124
LAC	18	24	26	23	91

Period scoring

CLE won 4 · LAC won 0

Tyson 8

Collins 7

Mitchell 7

Leonard 9

Mitchell 13

Leonard 35

Jr. 8

Brown 10

CLE

LAC

Shooting comparison

CLE

LAC

51%

50-98

46%

37-80

39%

16-41

3PT

21%

6-28

62%

8-13

92%

11-12

Play-by-play · 419 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 124·LAC 91
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 124·LAC 91
Q4·6.4
Kobe Brown makes driving layup
CLE 124·LAC 91
Q4·22.4
Larry Nance Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tristan Enaruna assists)
·
CLE 124·LAC 89
Q4·28.9
Tristan Enaruna offensive rebound
CLE 121·LAC 89
Q4·30.5
Tyrese Proctor misses driving floating jump shot
CLE 121·LAC 89
Q4·52.5
Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes 4-foot driving dunk (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
CLE 121·LAC 89
Q4·57.8
Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:01
Keon Ellis misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:17
Kobe Brown offensive foul turnover
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:17
Kobe Brown offensive foul
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:19
Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:22
Larry Nance Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:33
Tristan Enaruna offensive rebound
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:36
Tyrese Proctor misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:42
Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:46
TyTy Washington Jr. misses 28-foot three point jumper
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·1:58
Larry Nance Jr. makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Tyrese Proctor assists)
·
CLE 121·LAC 87
Q4·2:11
Keon Ellis defensive rebound
CLE 119·LAC 87
Q4·2:15
Kobe Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 119·LAC 87
Q4·2:28
Yanic Konan Niederhauser defensive rebound
CLE 119·LAC 87
Q4·2:30
Tristan Enaruna misses layup
CLE 119·LAC 87
Q4·2:43
Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 119·LAC 87
Q4·2:43
Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 119·LAC 86
Q4·2:43
Larry Nance Jr. shooting foul
CLE 119·LAC 85
Q4·2:57
Tyrese Proctor makes 15-foot pullup jump shot
CLE 119·LAC 85
Q4·3:18
Yanic Konan Niederhauser offensive foul turnover
CLE 117·LAC 85
Q4·3:18
Yanic Konan Niederhauser offensive foul
CLE 117·LAC 85
Q4·3:26
Keon Ellis bad pass turnover (Cam Christie steals)
·
CLE 117·LAC 85
Q4·3:40
Kobe Brown makes 4-foot two point shot
CLE 117·LAC 85

Betting line

CLE -2.5·O/U 221.5·CLE -148/LAC +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into LA Clippers and beat them, 124–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CLE -2.5 cashed (won by 33). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Brook LopezLAC
5.5± 2.4high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
3.9± 2.0high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

LAC

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR