NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10SA

OKC

40-12

106116

34-16

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasSA -9.5

OKC · top performer

Jaylin Williams

F · #6

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Keldon Johnson

F · #3

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 1:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	40	24	6-15	4-11	8-8	-14	12	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	35	25	9-18	4-7	3-4	-12	9	2
I. JoeG · #11	37	2	1-7	0-3	—	-1	5	2
A. WigginsG · #21	38	20	7-14	4-7	2-2	-4	4	6
C. WallaceG · #22	34	13	6-16	1-5	—	-15	3	5
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	20	14	5-15	4-9	—	-11	3	5
B. CarlsonC · #15	16	3	1-2	1-1	—	+10	7	0
J. McCainG	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. YoungbloodG · #3	20	5	2-6	1-4	—	-3	3	2
Team		106	37-93	19-47	13-14		46	26
DNP: I. Hartenstein, C. Holmgren, A. Caruso, L. Dort

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	27	8	3-6	2-5	—	+13	5	3
V. WembanyamaF · #1	28	22	9-16	1-2	3-8	+17	14	2
D. FoxG · #4	33	15	5-10	0-3	5-6	+20	4	10
D. VassellG · #24	25	5	2-10	1-7	—	-4	3	0
S. CastleG · #5	26	14	6-14	0-3	2-2	-4	3	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	30	9	3-9	2-7	1-2	0	7	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	29	25	10-17	4-8	1-2	+8	6	2
C. BryantF · #11	13	11	4-9	3-6	—	+6	5	1
L. KornetC · #7	15	4	2-7	—	—	-4	15	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	13	3	1-3	1-1	—	-2	1	1
Team		116	45-101	14-42	12-20		63	26
DNP: H. Ingram, B. Biyombo, S. Umude

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

Home

37-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-101

FG %

19-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

13-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-20

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-3

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC+32024%

SA-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -9.5↗SpreadBet SA -9.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat OKC 116-106. K. Johnson paced them with 25 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. SA outscored the other side 39-26 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 33 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 18

SAstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 29 REB · 19 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

52 PTS · 34 REB · 7 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA1st Quarter · 1:09 · 23-35

+16pp→ 85% WP

Jaylin Williams · enters the game for Isaiah Joe

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	26	32	27	21	106
SA	39	34	22	21	116

Period scoring

OKC won 1 · SA won 2

Wiggins 10

Johnson 12

Williams 10

Barnes 6

Williams 10

Johnson 12

Wallace 9

Wembanyama 10

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

40%

37-93

45%

45-101

40%

19-47

3PT

33%

14-42

93%

13-14

60%

12-20

Play-by-play · 502 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 106·SA 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 106·SA 116
Q4·21.1
Kenrich Williams makes running layup
·
OKC 106·SA 116
Q4·21.4
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·25.2
Branden Carlson blocks Stephon Castle 's 2-foot pullup jump shot
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·38.0
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·40.8
Brooks Barnhizer misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·46.1
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·49.2
Harrison Barnes blocks Chris Youngblood 's 17-foot pullup jump shot
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:00
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 1
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Branden Carlson enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Brooks Barnhizer enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Chris Youngblood enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Isaiah Joe shooting foul
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:03
Victor Wembanyama makes layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
OKC 104·SA 116
Q4·1:06
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
OKC 104·SA 114
Q4·1:09
Victor Wembanyama blocks Aaron Wiggins 's 1-foot driving layup
·
OKC 104·SA 114
Q4·1:15
Spurs delay of game violation
OKC 104·SA 114
+0.5pp
Q4·1:15
Stephon Castle makes driving layup
OKC 104·SA 114
Q4·1:29
Cason Wallace personal foul
OKC 104·SA 112
+1pp
Q4·1:34
Kenrich Williams bad pass turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
· ·
OKC 104·SA 112
+2pp
Q4·1:46
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 104·SA 112
Q4·1:46
Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot
OKC 104·SA 112
+2pp
Q4·1:46
Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
OKC 104·SA 110
+3pp
Q4·1:46
Stephon Castle misses 7-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 104·SA 110
−2pp
Q4·2:05
Cason Wallace makes 1-foot layup (Jaylin Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 104·SA 110
−2pp
Q4·2:10
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
OKC 102·SA 110
Q4·2:14
Victor Wembanyama misses dunk
OKC 102·SA 110
−1pp
Q4·2:20
Cason Wallace lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)
·
OKC 102·SA 110
+2pp

Betting line

SA -9.5·O/U 221.5·OKC +320/SA -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 116–106.

SA -9.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Devin VassellSA · G
DEFL2.586

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.2%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

118.5

PPG

114.9

118.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR