NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MIL

13-40

137141

MIL

20-29

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriesMIL leads series 1-0VegasNO -4.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

35.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

19.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 29pp · OT · 27.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	36	7	2-6	1-4	2-2	+4	2	2
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	38	20	5-11	—	10-12	-1	5	8
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	40	44	15-28	12-19	2-2	+3	6	6
D. QueenC · #22	22	6	3-5	0-1	0-3	-12	3	7
S. BeyG · #41	35	22	7-13	4-7	4-4	-4	3	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	15	7	3-7	1-3	—	-3	3	1
Y. MissiC · #21	31	7	2-7	—	3-3	+8	7	1
J. AlvaradoG · #15	17	9	3-5	3-5	—	-11	5	1
M. PeavyG · #14	12	2	1-4	0-3	—	+5	2	0
J. FearsG · #0	20	13	4-8	3-4	2-3	-9	2	4
Team		137	45-94	24-46	23-29		38	32
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	31	7	3-5	1-2	—	-2	6	9
M. TurnerC · #3	29	16	7-11	2-5	—	0	9	1
A. CoffeyG · #17	25	16	7-8	2-3	0-1	+1	5	1
A. GreenG · #20	36	20	7-13	6-12	—	-2	3	2
R. RollinsG · #13	40	27	10-19	3-10	4-5	+9	4	4
Bench
P. NanceF · #35	19	16	6-9	4-7	—	+4	3	3
J. SimsC · #00	28	8	4-4	—	—	+6	6	4
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	24	13	5-7	3-5	—	+4	0	2
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	29	18	7-14	0-3	4-4	+1	6	9
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	5	0	0-2	—	—	-1	1	1
Team		141	56-92	21-47	8-10		43	36
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, C. Anthony

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

45-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

56-92

FG %

24-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-47

23-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-10

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL leads series 1-0

Feb 5

NO137@

MIL141today

Feb 21

MIL139@

NO118

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-18064%

MIL+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -4.5↗SpreadBet NO -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat NO 141-137. K. Porter Jr. led with 18 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. AJ Green's play in the ot drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 19 REB · 25 AST

GS 86

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

MILstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 16 REB · 19 AST

GS 57

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 11:46 · 71-63

+27pp→ 81% WP

Saddiq Bey · makes free throw 1 of 2

NOOT · 27.8 · 137-138

+29pp→ 46% WP

AJ Green · bad pass turnover (Herbert Jones steals)

MILOT · 6.5 · 137-139

+22pp→ 90% WP

Zion Williamson · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
NO	34	36	34	24	9	137
MIL	30	33	36	29	13	141

Period scoring

NO won 2 · MIL won 3

III 9

Coffey 9

Alvarado 9

Sims 10

III 12

Green 12

III 14

Rollins 10

Jones 5

Rollins 3

MIL

Shooting comparison

MIL

48%

45-94

61%

56-92

52%

24-46

3PT

45%

21-47

79%

23-29

80%

8-10

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
NO 137·MIL 141
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
NO 137·MIL 141
+0.6pp
OT·1.6
Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound
NO 137·MIL 141
+0.8pp
OT·2.6
Trey Murphy III misses 23-foot three point jumper
NO 137·MIL 141
+4pp
OT·5.2
Jose Alvarado enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 137·MIL 141
OT·5.2
Jericho Sims enters the game for Myles Turner
·
NO 137·MIL 141
OT·5.2
Amir Coffey enters the game for AJ Green
·
NO 137·MIL 141
OT·5.2
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 137·MIL 141
OT·5.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 137·MIL 141
−2pp
OT·5.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 137·MIL 140
+0.6pp
OT·5.2
Zion Williamson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 139
+7pp
OT·6.5
Myles Turner enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·6.5
AJ Green enters the game for Amir Coffey
·
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·6.5
Bucks Full timeout
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·6.5
Zion Williamson offensive foul turnover
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·6.5
Zion Williamson offensive foulBIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 139
+22pp
OT·19.5
Jericho Sims enters the game for AJ Green
·
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·19.5
Amir Coffey enters the game for Myles Turner
·
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·19.5
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·19.5
Zion Williamson defensive rebound
NO 137·MIL 139
OT·19.9
Ryan Rollins misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 139
−19pp
OT·19.9
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 137·MIL 139
+2pp
OT·19.9
Saddiq Bey personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 138
+16pp
OT·21.9
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
NO 137·MIL 138
+4pp
OT·22.4
Trey Murphy III misses 32-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 138
+11pp
OT·27.8
AJ Green bad pass turnover (Herbert Jones steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 137·MIL 138
−29pp
OT·28.3
Herbert Jones personal foulBIG MOMENT
NO 137·MIL 138
+20pp
OT·31.6
Bucks Full timeout
NO 137·MIL 138
OT·35.0
Herbert Jones vs. Ryan Rollins (Myles Turner gains possession)
· ·
NO 137·MIL 138
OT·35.0
Ryan Rollins defensive rebound
NO 137·MIL 138
+3pp

Betting line

NO -4.5·O/U 223.5·NO -180/MIL +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off New Orleans Pelicans, 141–137 in overtime. Decided by 4.

MIL +4.5 cashed (NO lost outright). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 54.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
DeAndre JordanNO
0.9± 1.7low

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MIL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR