NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21BOS

BOS

33-18

11493

HOU

31-18

NBAWed, Feb 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -8.5

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

12.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 15pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. GarzaC · #52	34	19	7-13	2-7	3-5	+16	6	2
N. QuetaC · #88	39	10	3-4	—	4-4	+22	19	2
D. WhiteG · #9	37	28	10-25	6-14	2-2	+15	1	8
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	33	11	4-8	3-7	—	+16	9	3
B. ScheiermanG · #55	23	15	5-10	3-8	2-2	+7	10	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
J. MinottF · #8	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+4	2	0
N. VucevicC · #9	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
P. PritchardG · #11	33	27	9-20	5-10	4-5	+17	3	7
J. WalshG · #27	15	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	+7	4	0
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	15	2	1-4	0-1	—	+3	3	0
Team		114	39-90	19-51	17-20		57	26
DNP: S. Hauser, J. Brown

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	33	15	4-11	0-4	7-7	-22	5	1
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	33	13	5-12	3-7	—	-29	4	3
T. EasonF · #17	28	10	4-6	2-2	—	-9	4	1
A. SengunC · #28	31	13	5-12	—	3-3	-22	9	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	29	11	3-8	1-2	4-8	-21	4	4
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	+7	0	0
J. TateF · #8	7	0	0-2	0-1	0-2	-10	0	0
I. CrawfordF · #27	6	2	1-2	0-1	—	+7	1	0
C. CapelaC · #30	15	4	2-4	—	—	+4	5	0
A. HolidayG · #0	11	9	4-6	1-2	—	+5	2	2
J. OkogieG · #20	17	2	1-2	—	0-2	-9	1	0
J. DavisonG · #4	7	2	1-3	0-1	—	+6	1	2
R. SheppardG · #15	19	9	3-12	3-8	—	-12	2	0
Team		93	34-82	11-30	14-22		38	16

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

39-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-82

FG %

19-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

17-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 2

HOU128@

BOS101

Feb 5

BOS114@

HOU93today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+24529%

HOU-30575%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗SpreadBet HOU -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat HOU 114-93. P. Pritchard paced them with 27 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 45 REB · 19 AST

GS 78

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 12 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

HOUstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 26 REB · 12 AST

GS 48

Bench(8)

31 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS1st Quarter · 8:19 · 5-4

+12pp→ 39% WP

Luka Garza · lost ball turnover (Alperen Sengun steals)

BOS3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 49-42

+15pp→ 65% WP

Tari Eason · enters the game for Reed Sheppard

HOU3rd Quarter · 11:38 · 49-45

+8pp→ 43% WP

Amen Thompson · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	18	31	36	29	114
HOU	17	25	21	30	93

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · HOU won 1

White 5

Sheppard 9

White 9

Jr. 11

White 14

Eason 15

Pritchard 11

Sheppard 6

BOS

HOU

Shooting comparison

BOS

HOU

43%

39-90

41%

34-82

37%

19-51

3PT

37%

11-30

85%

17-20

64%

14-22

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 114·HOU 93
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 114·HOU 93
Q4·2.2
Jeff Green makes 24-foot three pointer (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
BOS 114·HOU 93
Q4·15.7
shot clock turnover
BOS 114·HOU 90
Q4·35.6
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 114·HOU 90
Q4·37.9
Jeff Green misses 26-foot three point jumper
BOS 114·HOU 90
Q4·50.6
Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 114·HOU 90
Q4·50.6
Baylor Scheierman makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 113·HOU 90
Q4·50.6
Aaron Holiday personal foul
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·52.5
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·54.4
Josh Minott blocks JD Davison 's 6-foot driving layup
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:01
JD Davison defensive rebound
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:04
Max Shulga misses 23-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:14
Josh Minott offensive rebound
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:19
Xavier Tillman misses 22-foot three point jumper
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Max Shulga enters the game for Ron Harper Jr.
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Josh Minott enters the game for Derrick White
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Josh Okogie enters the game for Clint Capela
·
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:41
Aaron Holiday personal take foul
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:46
Aaron Holiday makes driving layup
BOS 112·HOU 90
Q4·1:46
Derrick White lost ball turnover (Aaron Holiday steals)
·
BOS 112·HOU 88
Q4·2:12
Isaiah Crawford makes 2-foot driving dunk (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
BOS 112·HOU 88
Q4·2:28
Luka Garza makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)
·
BOS 112·HOU 86
Q4·2:38
Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound
BOS 109·HOU 86
Q4·2:40
Isaiah Crawford misses 22-foot three point jumper
BOS 109·HOU 86
Q4·2:55
Neemias Queta out of bounds lost ball turnover
BOS 109·HOU 86
Q4·2:55
Neemias Queta offensive rebound
BOS 109·HOU 86

Betting line

HOU -8.5·O/U 210.5·BOS +245/HOU -305

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 114–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS +8.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 210.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

HOU

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.1

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.1

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR