SAC
12-39
WSH
13-35
SAC · top performer
DeMar DeRozan
G · #10
32
Pts
2
Reb
5
Ast
WSH · top performer
Marvin Bagley III
F · #35
15
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 2:07
NBA · Sacramento Kings at Washington Wizards · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 9 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-1 | — | -11 | 4 | 0 | |
| 27 | 14 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 1-2 | -1 | 6 | 1 | |
| 33 | 32 | 10-16 | 1-1 | 11-12 | -14 | 2 | 5 | |
| 35 | 35 | 13-26 | 4-10 | 5-5 | -8 | 6 | 2 | |
| 29 | 6 | 1-3 | — | 4-4 | -5 | 3 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +10 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-2 | — | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 2-10 | 0-4 | — | +10 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | +5 | 4 | 0 | |
| 19 | 2 | 0-2 | — | 2-2 | -3 | 2 | 5 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1-4 | — | 2-2 | +2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Team | 112 | 39-84 | 8-21 | 26-29 | 37 | 21 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 18 | 13 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 1-2 | -4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 19 | 15 | 7-8 | 1-1 | — | -10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 19 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 1 | 2 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-6 | — | -1 | 2 | 6 | |
| 21 | 15 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 5-5 | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 0 | 0-3 | — | — | +11 | 4 | 0 | |
| 27 | 13 | 6-8 | 1-3 | — | +6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 13 | 5 | 2-4 | — | 1-2 | +4 | 7 | 3 | |
| 16 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +2 | 6 | 0 | |
| 30 | 18 | 6-15 | 4-8 | 2-2 | +8 | 6 | 6 | |
| 27 | 17 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +8 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 116 | 46-88 | 13-31 | 11-15 | 42 | 31 | ||
| DNP: J. Champagnie, M. Branham | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
52
21
Ast
31
Team stats
SAC
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
39-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-88
46
FG %
52
8-21
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-31
26-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
11-15
21
Assists
31
14
Turnovers
17
Season series
Series tied 1-1
WSH115@SAC128SAC112@WSH116todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SAC -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
SAC-11854%WSH-10250%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
WSH beat SAC 116-112. M. Bagley III led with 15 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. WSH outscored the other side 23-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
WSH vs SAC
Starters vs bench
production by unitSACstarters 82% of ptsStarters(5)
92 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST
GS 73
Bench(7)
20 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST
GS 20
WSHstarters 47% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 11 REB · 16 AST
GS 47
Bench(6)
61 PTS · 31 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMaxime Raynaud · misses 11-foot floating jump shot
Skal Labissiere · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sharife Cooper assists)
Will Riley · makes 25-foot three pointer (Skal Labissiere assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAC | 14 | 34 | 34 | 30 | 112 |
| WSH | 23 | 30 | 35 | 28 | 116 |
Period scoring
SAC won 2 · WSH won 2
Q1
Achiuwa 5
III 6
Q2
LaVine 18
Riley 6
Q3
LaVine 9
Middleton 8
Q4
DeRozan 17
Riley 12
Shooting comparison
46%
39-84
FG
52%
46-88
38%
8-21
3PT
42%
13-31
90%
26-29
FT
73%
11-15
Play-by-play · 453 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 112·WSH 116
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 112·WSH 116
- Q4·1.0
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 112·WSH 116
- Q4·1.0
Zach LaVine misses heave jump shot
SAC 112·WSH 116
+3pp
- Q4·3.5
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 112·WSH 116
−0.5pp
- Q4·3.5
Wizards offensive team rebound
SAC 112·WSH 115
−1pp
- Q4·3.5
Sharife Cooper misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 112·WSH 115
−0.7pp
- Q4·3.5
Nique Clifford personal foul
SAC 112·WSH 115
+2pp
- Q4·3.6
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
SAC 112·WSH 115
+5pp
- Q4·7.3
Zach LaVine misses running pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 112·WSH 115
+10pp
- Q4·12.0
Sharife Cooper lost ball turnover (Isaiah Stevens steals)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 112·WSH 115
−12pp
- Q4·22.7
Maxime Raynaud personal foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 112·WSH 115
+10pp
- Q4·30.4
Zach LaVine makes 1-foot driving dunk (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
SAC 112·WSH 115
−3pp
- Q4·37.2
Kings Full timeout
SAC 110·WSH 115
- Q4·37.2
Sharife Cooper makes tip shot
SAC 110·WSH 115
+4pp
- Q4·37.2
Sharife Cooper offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 110·WSH 113
+9pp
- Q4·40.1
AJ Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
SAC 110·WSH 113
−7pp
- Q4·54.5
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
SAC 110·WSH 113
+3pp
- Q4·56.7
Zach LaVine misses 11-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 110·WSH 113
+9pp
- Q4·1:16
Skal Labissiere makes 6-foot hook shot (Will Riley assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 110·WSH 113
+9pp
- Q4·1:37
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 110·WSH 111
+2pp
- Q4·1:37
Kings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 109·WSH 111
+6pp
- Q4·1:37
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
SAC 109·WSH 111
+7pp
- Q4·1:37
Will Riley shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 109·WSH 111
−13pp
- Q4·1:42
Nique Clifford offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 109·WSH 111
−8pp
- Q4·1:46
Zach LaVine misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SAC 109·WSH 111
+8pp
- Q4·2:06
Nique Clifford enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden
·
SAC 109·WSH 111
- Q4·2:06
Kings Full timeout
SAC 109·WSH 111
- Q4·2:07
Will Riley makes 25-foot three pointer (Skal Labissiere assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 109·WSH 111
+17pp
- Q4·2:22
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
SAC 109·WSH 108
+2pp
Betting line
SAC -1.5·O/U 226.5·SAC -118/WSH -102
Recap · NBA
ashington Wizards held off Sacramento Kings, 116–112. Decided by 4.
WSH +1.5 cashed (SAC lost outright). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Anthony GillWSH · FTS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · GDEFL3.194- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN · FTS%66.193
Maxime RaynaudSAC · CCONT7.593
Dylan CardwellSAC · CCONT6.891
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · SAC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs SAC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Anthony DavisWSH20.5± 9.2high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC18.0± 12.6high
- Zach LaVineSAC17.6± 7.7high
Rebounds
- Anthony DavisWSH11.3± 4.3high
- Domantas SabonisSAC10.6± 3.5high
- Julian ReeseWSH10.5± 6.4low
Assists
- Bub CarringtonWSH5.1± 1.9high
- DeMar DeRozanSAC4.8± 3.7high
- Domantas SabonisSAC4.3± 2.0high
Blocks
- Dylan CardwellSAC1.7± 1.7high
- Anthony DavisWSH1.7± 1.5high
- Alex SarrWSH1.6± 1.4high
Steals
- Julian ReeseWSH1.4± 1.7low
- Leaky BlackWSH1.4± 1.7medium
- Bilal CoulibalyWSH1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
SAC
league avg
WSH
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶53.5%
46.7%
FG%
47.0
46.3%
111.0
PPG
114.9
▶112.9
25.5
Assists / G
25.0
25.0
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1