NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7TOR

UTAH

15-35

100107

TOR

30-21

NBASun, Feb 1FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasTOR -10.5

UTAH · top performer

Lauri Markkanen

F · #23

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 41pp · 3rd Quarter · 11:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	39	27	9-23	2-9	7-7	-5	11	2
C. WilliamsF · #5	20	10	4-5	1-1	1-2	-1	2	0
J. NurkicC · #30	33	11	3-11	1-3	4-7	-7	13	1
I. CollierG · #8	30	19	5-8	1-3	8-10	-6	4	7
A. BaileyG · #19	27	4	1-10	0-2	2-2	-17	11	2
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	15	4	2-7	0-3	—	0	5	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	9	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	-2	5	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	19	4	1-6	0-3	2-2	-1	2	0
S. MykhailiukG · #10	30	8	2-7	2-6	2-2	+5	1	3
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	18	7	3-9	1-5	—	-1	2	2
Team		100	32-90	8-36	28-34		56	20
DNP: K. Anderson, T. Hendricks

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	35	19	7-19	1-5	4-4	-1	5	3
R. BarrettF · #9	28	21	6-12	2-6	7-9	+13	6	4
S. BarnesF · #4	34	14	5-12	1-3	3-6	+5	9	4
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	24	4	2-7	0-1	—	+3	5	1
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	17	6-12	3-6	2-2	+8	5	4
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	30	20	6-9	4-7	4-4	+6	6	0
J. BattleF · #77	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	2	0	0-2	0-1	—	+1	1	0
J. SheadG · #23	20	5	2-4	1-2	—	0	1	4
J. WalterG · #14	18	7	1-3	0-2	5-5	-3	1	1
G. DickG · #1	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	+5	2	1
Team		107	35-84	12-35	25-30		42	22
DNP: J. Mogbo, G. Temple

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

32-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-84

FG %

8-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

28-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Feb 1

UTAH100@

TOR107today

Mar 24

TOR143@

UTAH127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+31024%

TOR-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -10.5↗SpreadBet TOR -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat UTAH 107-100. I. Quickley led with 17 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 33-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 41 REB · 12 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 11

TORstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR3rd Quarter · 5:59 · 69-67

+9pp→ 62% WP

Isaiah Collier · misses 9-foot fade away jump shot

UTAH3rd Quarter · 2:33 · 78-78

+13pp→ 31% WP

Scottie Barnes de · fensive rebound

UTAH3rd Quarter · 11:19 · 56-52

+41pp→ 41% WP

Lauri Markkanen · misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	23	33	28	16	100
TOR	28	23	35	21	107

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · TOR won 3

Markkanen 6

Mamukelashvili 8

Collier 8

Barrett 9

Markkanen 8

Quickley 7

Filipowski 4

Ingram 7

UTAH

TOR

Shooting comparison

UTAH

TOR

36%

32-90

42%

35-84

22%

8-36

3PT

34%

12-35

82%

28-34

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 525 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 100·TOR 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 100·TOR 107
Q4·1.5
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
UTAH 100·TOR 107
Q4·1.5
Ace Bailey misses 26-foot three point jumper
UTAH 100·TOR 107
Q4·8.1
Scottie Barnes makes driving dunk (Immanuel Quickley assists)
·
UTAH 100·TOR 107
+1pp
Q4·11.8
Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 100·TOR 105
−1pp
Q4·11.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili lane violation
UTAH 99·TOR 105
+3pp
Q4·11.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
UTAH 99·TOR 105
Q4·11.8
Lauri Markkanen makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 99·TOR 105
−0.6pp
Q4·11.8
Scottie Barnes personal foul
UTAH 98·TOR 105
−2pp
Q4·18.1
Lauri Markkanen defensive rebound
UTAH 98·TOR 105
Q4·19.9
Scottie Barnes misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 98·TOR 105
−1pp
Q4·19.9
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
UTAH 98·TOR 105
Q4·19.9
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 98·TOR 105
Q4·19.9
Svi Mykhailiuk personal take foul
UTAH 98·TOR 104
+1pp
Q4·22.5
Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
UTAH 98·TOR 104
Q4·22.5
Raptors Full timeout
UTAH 98·TOR 104
Q4·22.5
Jusuf Nurkic makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 98·TOR 104
Q4·22.5
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
UTAH 97·TOR 104
Q4·22.5
Jazz offensive team rebound
UTAH 97·TOR 104
+1pp
Q4·22.5
Jusuf Nurkic misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 97·TOR 104
+3pp
Q4·22.5
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foul
UTAH 97·TOR 104
−5pp
Q4·23.2
Jusuf Nurkic offensive rebound
UTAH 97·TOR 104
−0.7pp
Q4·27.4
Isaiah Collier misses 27-foot three point jumper
UTAH 97·TOR 104
+1pp
Q4·38.0
Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Jamal Shead assists)
·
UTAH 97·TOR 104
+2pp
Q4·58.4
Isaiah Collier out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
UTAH 97·TOR 102
+5pp
Q4·1:00
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
UTAH 97·TOR 102
−1pp
Q4·1:05
Immanuel Quickley misses 22-foot three point jumper
UTAH 97·TOR 102
−3pp
Q4·1:24
Ace Bailey makes driving dunk (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
UTAH 97·TOR 102
−1pp
Q4·1:25
Isaiah Collier offensive rebound
UTAH 95·TOR 102
−2pp

Betting line

TOR -10.5·O/U 234.5·UTAH +310/TOR -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors held off Utah Jazz, 107–100.

UTAH +10.5 cashed (TOR won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 234.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

TOR

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.5%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.1%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

29.2

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR