NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9SA

ORL

25-23

103112

33-16

NBASun, Feb 1FinalSeriesSA wins series 2-0VegasSA -4.5

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	35	19	6-12	1-1	6-8	-30	10	4
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	19	2	1-7	0-2	—	-24	2	0
D. BaneG · #3	37	25	10-17	1-2	4-4	-10	4	4
J. SuggsG · #4	32	5	2-13	1-6	—	-15	6	6
A. BlackG · #0	30	11	4-12	2-5	1-1	-24	1	2
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	8	8	3-6	2-4	—	-7	0	0
J. IsaacF · #1	15	9	4-6	1-2	—	+11	1	1
T. da SilvaF · #23	28	7	3-9	1-5	—	+9	5	3
N. PendaF · #93	13	7	3-5	0-2	1-1	+23	2	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	9	4	2-2	—	—	+11	2	0
T. JonesG · #2	9	0	—	—	—	-5	1	2
J. HowardG · #13	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	+8	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	2	3	1-1	—	1-1	+8	0	0
Team		103	40-91	10-30	13-15		34	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	29	7	2-5	1-3	2-4	+10	5	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	31	11	3-7	2-6	3-3	+23	8	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	28	25	7-13	0-4	11-15	+14	8	2
D. FoxG · #4	30	14	7-14	0-3	—	+9	3	10
D. VassellG · #24	28	16	7-13	2-5	—	+17	2	3
Bench
L. Waters IIIF · #43	2	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	25	14	5-9	1-2	3-4	+10	10	1
H. IngramF · #55	2	2	1-1	—	—	-8	0	0
C. BryantF · #11	16	6	2-6	1-1	1-2	-18	2	0
L. KornetC · #7	18	2	1-2	—	—	+3	4	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	2	0	—	—	—	-8	0	1
S. UmudeG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	-8	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	28	15	6-12	1-5	2-4	+9	6	5
Team		112	41-82	8-29	22-32		48	27
DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

Home

40-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-82

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-29

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 2-0

Dec 4

SA114@

ORL112

Feb 2

ORL103@

SA112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+16438%

SA-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -4.5↗SpreadBet SA -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat ORL 112-103. V. Wembanyama paced them with 25 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. ORL outscored the other side 40-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 38

Bench(8)

41 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

GS 38

SAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(8)

39 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA2nd Quarter · 2:47 · 54-53

+10pp→ 58% WP

Spurs · offensive team rebound

SA3rd Quarter · 1:52 · 76-81

+9pp→ 78% WP

Tristan · da Silva misses 24-foot three point jumper

ORL4th Quarter · 10:24 · 83-89

+7pp→ 23% WP

De'Aaron Fox · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	21	40	18	24	103
SA	37	23	26	26	112

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · SA won 3

Wagner 8

Fox 10

Black 8

Harper 6

Bane 9

Wembanyama 8

Bane 7

Wembanyama 7

ORL

Shooting comparison

ORL

44%

40-91

50%

41-82

33%

10-30

3PT

28%

8-29

87%

13-15

69%

22-32

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 103·SA 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 103·SA 112
Q4·3.0
shot clock turnover
ORL 103·SA 112
+3pp
Q4·27.6
Noah Penda makes 22-foot running pullup jump shot
ORL 103·SA 112
Q4·31.9
Lindy Waters III bad pass turnover (Noah Penda steals)
·
ORL 101·SA 112
Q4·50.3
Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot dunk
ORL 101·SA 112
Q4·1:11
Goga Bitadze defensive rebound
ORL 99·SA 112
Q4·1:11
Carter Bryant misses two point shot
ORL 99·SA 112
Q4·1:29
Jett Howard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)
·
ORL 99·SA 112
Q4·1:45
Harrison Ingram makes layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
ORL 96·SA 112
Q4·2:02
Jase Richardson makes free throw 1 of 1
ORL 96·SA 110
Q4·2:02
Stanley Umude shooting foul
ORL 95·SA 110
Q4·2:02
Jase Richardson makes 1-foot two point shot
ORL 95·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Noah Penda enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Goga Bitadze enters the game for Paolo Banchero
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Jett Howard enters the game for Desmond Bane
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Jase Richardson enters the game for Anthony Black
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Harrison Ingram enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Stanley Umude enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Carter Bryant enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Magic Full timeout
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:10
Victor Wembanyama makes dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
ORL 93·SA 110
Q4·2:31
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
ORL 93·SA 108
Q4·2:32
Desmond Bane misses driving layup
ORL 93·SA 108
Q4·2:40
Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot layup (Julian Champagnie assists)
·
ORL 93·SA 108
Q4·2:57
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
ORL 93·SA 106
Q4·2:59
Jalen Suggs misses running pullup jump shot
ORL 93·SA 106

Betting line

SA -4.5·O/U 222.5·ORL +164/SA -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Orlando Magic, 112–103.

SA -4.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 222.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high
Franz WagnerORL
18.1± 4.3high

Rebounds

Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Anthony BlackORL
0.7± 1.1high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR