NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12SA

32-15

11199

HOU

28-17

NBAWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-1VegasHOU -2.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:53

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	29	9	4-6	1-2	—	+1	1	1
J. ChampagnieF · #30	21	2	1-4	0-3	—	+3	3	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	29	28	8-15	0-3	12-15	+6	16	3
D. FoxG · #4	34	18	6-11	2-5	4-4	+5	5	8
S. CastleG · #5	33	16	7-12	1-2	1-3	+3	5	6
Bench
L. Waters IIIF · #43	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	27	17	8-15	1-4	—	+18	7	5
C. BryantF · #11	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	19	0	—	—	0-2	+8	4	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
D. VassellG · #24	23	5	2-7	1-5	—	+9	1	0
D. HarperG · #2	22	16	8-11	0-2	—	+18	4	3
Team		111	44-82	6-26	17-24		46	28
DNP: K. Olynyk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	36	24	8-17	2-4	6-6	-9	2	6
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	37	8	3-8	2-5	—	-12	7	2
T. EasonF · #17	25	10	4-10	2-3	—	-7	6	0
A. SengunC · #28	36	18	7-20	1-2	3-7	-14	10	7
A. ThompsonG · #1	36	25	11-23	—	3-3	-15	7	4
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	-6	2	0
J. TateF · #8	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	9	5	2-4	—	1-2	+3	4	0
A. HolidayG · #0	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
J. OkogieG · #20	15	0	0-3	0-3	—	+10	3	3
R. SheppardG · #15	26	9	4-12	1-4	—	-16	5	0
Team		99	39-99	8-23	13-18		46	23
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

44-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-99

FG %

6-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-23

17-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-1

Nov 8

HOU110@

SA121

Jan 21

SA106@

HOU111

Jan 29

SA111@

HOU99today

Mar 9

HOU120@

SA145

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

220.5

Standard · -5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA+12045%

HOU-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

220.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat HOU 111-99. V. Wembanyama paced them with 28 PTS, 16 REB, 3 AST. SA outscored the other side 27-13 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 64

Bench(8)

38 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 31

HOUstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 32 REB · 19 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

14 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA3rd Quarter · 4:40 · 74-78

+13pp→ 28% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · enters the game for Josh Okogie

SA4th Quarter · 11:47 · 84-86

+12pp→ 48% WP

Alperen Sengun · shooting foul

SA4th Quarter · 9:40 · 87-86

+10pp→ 65% WP

Alperen Sengun · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	26	28	30	27	111
HOU	36	26	24	13	99

Period scoring

SA won 3 · HOU won 1

Barnes 5

Sengun 11

Castle 9

Thompson 6

Johnson 9

Thompson 11

Wembanyama 13

Durant 4

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

54%

44-82

39%

39-99

23%

6-26

3PT

35%

8-23

71%

17-24

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 111·HOU 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 111·HOU 99
Q4·10.0
Clint Capela makes alley oop dunk (Aaron Holiday assists)
·
SA 111·HOU 99
Q4·20.9
Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound
SA 111·HOU 97
Q4·21.3
Jordan McLaughlin misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
SA 111·HOU 97
Q4·40.2
Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 111·HOU 97
Q4·40.2
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Carter Bryant enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Rockets offensive team rebound
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·40.2
Keldon Johnson personal take foul
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 111·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Clint Capela enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Jabari Smith Jr.
·
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Josh Okogie enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 110·HOU 96
Q4·51.1
Alperen Sengun shooting foul
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:06
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:08
Amen Thompson misses 10-foot floating jump shot
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:17
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:20
Alperen Sengun misses 11-foot two point shot
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:31
Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)
·
SA 109·HOU 96
Q4·1:34
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
SA 107·HOU 96
Q4·1:36
Jabari Smith Jr. misses two point shot
SA 107·HOU 96
Q4·1:40
De'Aaron Fox lost ball turnover (Amen Thompson steals)
·
SA 107·HOU 96
Q4·1:41
Victor Wembanyama vs. Amen Thompson (Kevin Durant gains possession)
· ·
SA 107·HOU 96

Betting line

HOU -2.5·O/U 220.5·SA +120/HOU -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 111–99.

SA +2.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 220.5 by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Alperen SengunHOU
19.1± 6.9high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
7.4± 2.5high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

HOU

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR