NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CHA

WSH

10-34

115119

CHA

18-28

NBASat, Jan 24FinalSeriesCHA leads series 3-0VegasCHA -11.5

WSH · top performer

Justin Champagnie

F · #9

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 4:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. GeorgeF · #18	25	11	4-15	2-10	1-1	-10	8	7
A. SarrC · #20	37	24	11-19	1-3	1-1	-16	4	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	32	15	5-11	5-11	—	-12	3	8
W. RileyG · #27	23	7	3-6	1-3	—	-22	0	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	37	26	8-22	6-15	4-5	-2	0	6
Bench
A. GillF · #16	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+12	0	2
J. ChampagnieF · #9	32	15	7-9	1-3	—	+4	11	3
S. CooperG · #13	9	3	1-1	1-1	—	+6	0	1
M. BranhamG · #8	8	3	1-3	1-1	—	+8	2	2
J. WatkinsG · #5	29	11	4-9	1-5	2-2	+12	6	3
Team		115	44-96	19-53	8-9		34	35
DNP: K. Middleton, M. Bagley III

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	29	20	7-13	3-7	3-5	+3	3	4
M. DiabateF · #14	32	11	2-3	—	7-8	+13	14	0
B. MillerF · #24	33	21	7-12	2-4	5-5	+15	11	7
L. BallG · #1	32	20	8-19	3-9	1-1	+6	2	11
K. KnueppelG · #7	32	16	5-11	3-8	3-4	-9	4	3
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	1	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	16	8	4-4	—	0-2	-9	3	0
C. SextonG · #8	16	9	3-6	1-2	2-2	-8	1	2
J. GreenG · #10	15	6	2-2	2-2	—	+10	2	0
S. JamesG · #4	16	6	2-5	0-2	2-3	-2	5	2
Team		119	41-79	14-36	23-30		46	30
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

44-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-79

FG %

19-53

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 3-0

Oct 26

CHA139@

WSH113

Dec 24

WSH109@

CHA126

Jan 24

WSH115@

CHA119today

Feb 22

CHA129@

WSH112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+39020%

CHA-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -11.5↗SpreadBet CHA -11.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat WSH 119-115. B. Miller led with 21 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST. WSH outscored the other side 34-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 15 REB · 24 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

CHAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 34 REB · 25 AST

GS 80

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 4:49 · 102-108

+7pp→ 16% WP

Sion James · shooting foul

WSH4th Quarter · 4:09 · 106-110

+7pp→ 15% WP

Bub Carrington · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 1:34 · 112-116

+6pp→ 84% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	34	24	23	34	115
CHA	35	31	27	26	119

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · CHA won 3

George 8

Miller 10

Johnson 12

Knueppel 7

Johnson 8

Knueppel 5

Sarr 9

Ball 7

WSH

CHA

Shooting comparison

WSH

CHA

46%

44-96

52%

41-79

36%

19-53

3PT

39%

14-36

89%

8-9

77%

23-30

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·0.0
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·0.0
Tre Johnson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 115·CHA 119
+2pp
Q4·2.4
Tre Johnson enters the game for Anthony Gill
·
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·2.4
Will Riley enters the game for Jamir Watkins
·
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·2.4
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 115·CHA 119
Q4·2.4
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 115·CHA 119
−1pp
Q4·2.4
Anthony Gill enters the game for Tre Johnson
·
WSH 115·CHA 118
Q4·2.4
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 115·CHA 118
Q4·2.4
Jamir Watkins personal take foul
WSH 115·CHA 117
+4pp
Q4·3.6
Bub Carrington makes 28-foot three pointer
WSH 115·CHA 117
−3pp
Q4·9.7
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 112·CHA 117
Q4·9.7
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
WSH 112·CHA 116
Q4·9.7
Hornets offensive team rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
−2pp
Q4·9.7
Kon Knueppel misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 112·CHA 116
−0.5pp
Q4·9.7
Alex Sarr personal foul
WSH 112·CHA 116
+2pp
Q4·10.7
Miles Bridges offensive rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
+5pp
Q4·13.4
LaMelo Ball misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 112·CHA 116
Q4·35.1
Brandon Miller defensive rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
+2pp
Q4·38.0
Bub Carrington misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 112·CHA 116
+5pp
Q4·44.2
Justin Champagnie defensive rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
−1pp
Q4·46.2
LaMelo Ball misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 112·CHA 116
−4pp
Q4·50.6
Hornets offensive team rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
+5pp
Q4·50.6
Justin Champagnie blocks LaMelo Ball 's 4-foot layup
·
WSH 112·CHA 116
−4pp
Q4·1:08
Moussa Diabate defensive rebound
WSH 112·CHA 116
+2pp
Q4·1:10
Jamir Watkins misses driving layup
WSH 112·CHA 116
+5pp
Q4·1:34
LaMelo Ball makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 112·CHA 116
+7pp
Q4·1:53
Jamir Watkins makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 112·CHA 114
−6pp
Q4·1:53
Jamir Watkins offensive rebound
WSH 110·CHA 114
−4pp

Betting line

CHA -11.5·O/U 231.5·WSH +390/CHA -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Washington Wizards, 119–115. Decided by 4.

WSH +11.5 cashed (CHA won by 4). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

CHA

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR