NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13MIA

MIA

23-21

130117

SAC

12-32

NBATue, Jan 20FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIA -4.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 21pp · 1st Quarter · 10:10

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	30	19	7-12	3-7	2-2	+12	3	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	30	25	8-15	4-5	5-7	+13	7	5
N. PowellG · #24	31	22	8-16	4-6	2-3	+13	3	2
D. MitchellG · #45	19	6	2-5	2-3	—	+11	3	7
P. LarssonG · #9	26	16	7-9	0-1	2-3	+10	6	9
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	19	15	5-11	5-9	—	+1	7	0
M. GardnerF · #15	15	5	2-4	0-2	1-1	-1	1	3
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	33	13	5-12	1-2	2-4	+5	9	3
N. JovicF · #5	19	8	3-11	2-5	0-2	+1	5	2
K. JakucionisG · #25	17	1	0-3	0-2	1-2	0	2	0
Team		130	47-98	21-42	15-24		46	33
DNP: K. Johnson, K. Ware, D. Smith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	22	6	2-4	0-1	2-2	-9	5	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	18	7	3-6	1-1	—	-6	8	0
R. WestbrookG · #18	31	22	9-14	1-6	3-4	-13	2	7
D. DeRozanG · #10	35	23	6-12	1-2	10-10	-19	4	5
Z. LaVineG · #8	22	18	7-10	3-4	1-2	-3	1	5
Bench
D. SabonisF · #11	17	6	3-8	0-1	0-1	-4	10	3
D. CardwellC · #32	21	4	2-3	—	—	-3	12	1
D. SchroderG · #17	19	4	2-7	0-1	—	-4	2	2
M. MonkG · #0	30	18	6-13	4-10	2-2	-3	2	2
N. CliffordG · #5	24	9	4-10	1-4	—	-1	3	1
Team		117	44-87	11-30	18-21		49	27
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter, K. Ellis

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

47-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-87

FG %

21-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-30

15-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 7

SAC127@

MIA111

Jan 21

MIA130@

SAC117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-18064%

SAC+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -4.5↗SpreadBet MIA -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat SAC 130-117. B. Adebayo paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. Russell Westbrook's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 22 REB · 25 AST

GS 79

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 24 REB · 8 AST

GS 32

SACstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST

GS 64

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 29 REB · 9 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC1st Quarter · 10:10 · 0-2

+21pp→ 42% WP

Russell Westbrook · blocks Andrew Wiggins 's 4-foot driving layup

MIA1st Quarter · 1:18 · 29-20

+8pp→ 80% WP

Jaime Jaquez Jr. · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	32	45	23	30	130
SAC	25	39	25	28	117

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · SAC won 1

Powell 10

LaVine 10

Wiggins 11

DeRozan 10

Adebayo 10

DeRozan 8

Larsson 8

DeRozan 19

MIA

SAC

Shooting comparison

MIA

SAC

48%

47-98

51%

44-87

50%

21-42

3PT

37%

11-30

63%

15-24

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 130·SAC 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 130·SAC 117
Q4·21.1
Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
MIA 130·SAC 117
Q4·29.0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
MIA 130·SAC 114
Q4·39.8
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 128·SAC 114
Q4·43.6
Pelle Larsson misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 128·SAC 114
Q4·59.3
Russell Westbrook makes driving layup (Zach LaVine assists)
·
MIA 128·SAC 114
Q4·1:04
Nikola Jovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
·
MIA 128·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 125·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
Pelle Larsson misses free throw flagrant 2 of 2
MIA 125·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
Pelle Larsson makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
MIA 125·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
Nikola Jovic enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
Nique Clifford enters the game for DeMar DeRozan
·
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:24
DeMar DeRozan flagrant foul type 1
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:27
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:28
Andrew Wiggins blocks Zach LaVine's driving layup
·
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:41
Jaime Jaquez Jr. bad pass turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)
·
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·1:57
DeMar DeRozan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
MIA 124·SAC 112
Q4·2:13
Bam Adebayo enters the game for Nikola Jovic
·
MIA 124·SAC 109
Q4·2:13
Zach LaVine enters the game for Precious Achiuwa
·
MIA 124·SAC 109
Q4·2:13
Norman Powell out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 124·SAC 109
Q4·2:27
Jaime Jaquez Jr. defensive rebound
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·2:31
Precious Achiuwa misses 29-foot three point jumper
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·2:36
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·2:39
Andrew Wiggins misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·2:48
Nikola Jovic defensive rebound
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·2:51
Malik Monk misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIA 122·SAC 109
Q4·3:03
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes two point shot
MIA 124·SAC 109
Q4·3:04
Jaime Jaquez Jr. offensive rebound
MIA 122·SAC 109

Betting line

MIA -4.5·O/U 238.5·MIA -180/SAC +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 130–117.

MIA -4.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 238.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

SAC

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR