NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18TOR

TOR

26-19

145127

25-20

NBATue, Jan 20FinalSeriesTOR wins series 2-0VegasGS -4.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

40.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Buddy Hield

G · #7

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 24pp · 1st Quarter · 4:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	22	8-17	4-6	2-2	+12	4	5
S. BarnesF · #4	39	26	12-18	0-1	2-2	+10	7	11
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	40	11-13	7-8	11-11	+1	2	10
J. SheadG · #23	30	10	4-6	2-2	—	+24	1	8
G. DickG · #1	23	10	3-6	2-5	2-2	+17	3	0
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	26	14	5-8	4-4	—	+3	12	4
J. BattleF · #77	15	9	3-6	2-4	1-1	+5	2	3
J. MogboF · #2	11	2	1-3	—	—	+6	5	0
G. TempleG · #17	2	0	—	—	—	+3	0	1
A.J. LawsonG · #0	11	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	+3	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	12	4	2-6	0-3	—	+3	0	0
A. MartinG · #55	2	2	—	—	2-2	+3	0	0
Team		145	51-86	21-34	22-22		37	42

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	22	6	3-9	0-4	—	-27	6	5
Q. PostC · #21	18	12	5-9	2-3	—	-10	7	0
S. CurryG · #30	25	16	6-16	2-7	2-3	-25	3	3
M. MoodyG · #4	18	10	5-7	0-2	0-1	-20	5	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	22	11	4-10	1-7	2-5	-24	3	2
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	12	0	0-1	—	—	+8	0	1
J. KumingaF · #1	21	20	7-10	1-3	5-8	+3	5	2
M. LeonsF · #33	2	0	0-1	—	—	-3	1	0
G. SantosF · #15	15	3	1-2	1-2	—	-14	0	2
B. HieldG · #7	19	25	7-8	6-6	5-5	+10	1	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	11	9	3-4	2-2	1-2	+3	0	0
D. MeltonG · #8	20	6	2-6	0-3	2-2	+2	3	5
L. CryerG · #18	2	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
P. SpencerG · #61	9	9	4-4	1-1	—	+3	2	5
W. RichardG · #3	23	0	0-4	0-3	—	+7	0	1
Team		127	47-91	16-43	17-26		36	28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

Home

51-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-91

FG %

21-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-43

22-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR wins series 2-0

Dec 28

GS127@

TOR141

Jan 21

TOR145@

GS127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+15040%

GS-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -4.5↗SpreadBet GS -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat GS 145-127. I. Quickley led the way with 40 points and 10 assists. TOR outscored the other side 41-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 17 REB · 34 AST

GS 102

Bench(7)

37 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 33

GSstarters 43% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Bench(10)

72 PTS · 12 REB · 18 AST

GS 57

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS1st Quarter · 4:26 · 28-15

+24pp→ 26% WP

Ochai Agbaji · bad pass turnover

GS1st Quarter · 4:00 · 30-15

+15pp→ 19% WP

De'Anthony Melton · lost ball turnover (Brandon Ingram steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	41	29	38	37	145
GS	28	22	44	33	127

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · GS won 1

Barnes 12

II 8

Mamukelashvili 8

Ingram 25

Quickley 15

Moody 37

Ingram 9

Hield 14

TOR

Shooting comparison

TOR

59%

51-86

52%

47-91

62%

21-34

3PT

37%

16-43

100%

22-22

65%

17-26

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 145·GS 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 145·GS 127
Q4·23.3
Pat Spencer makes 2-foot driving dunk
TOR 145·GS 127
Q4·35.6
Alijah Martin makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 145·GS 125
Q4·35.6
Alijah Martin makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 144·GS 125
Q4·35.6
L.J. Cryer personal foul
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·49.8
Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·53.9
Malevy Leons misses two point shot
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·1:01
Malevy Leons offensive rebound
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·1:05
Will Richard misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·1:21
Jamison Battle makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Garrett Temple assists)
·
TOR 143·GS 125
Q4·1:44
A.J. Lawson enters the game for Jamal Shead
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Jamison Battle enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Alijah Martin enters the game for Immanuel Quickley
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Garrett Temple enters the game for Scottie Barnes
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Brandon Ingram
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
L.J. Cryer enters the game for Buddy Hield
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Malevy Leons enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:44
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:45
Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
TOR 140·GS 125
Q4·1:58
Scottie Barnes makes running layup (Jamal Shead assists)
·
TOR 140·GS 122
Q4·2:02
Jonathan Kuminga bad pass turnover (Sandro Mamukelashvili steals)
·
TOR 138·GS 122
Q4·2:22
Immanuel Quickley makes 28-foot three pointer
TOR 138·GS 122
Q4·2:29
Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·2:33
Brandon Ingram misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·2:41
Pat Spencer lost ball turnover (Sandro Mamukelashvili steals)
·
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·2:42
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·2:43
Scottie Barnes misses 17-foot jumper
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·2:58
Buddy Hield makes 30-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)
·
TOR 135·GS 122
Q4·3:10
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 135·GS 119

Betting line

GS -4.5·O/U 224.5·TOR +150/GS -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 145–127.

TOR +4.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 47.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Immanuel QuickleyTOR · G
TOUCHES7294
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
Quinten PostGS · C
CONT6.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.5

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.8

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR