MIA
22-21
GS
25-19
MIA · top performer
Kel'el Ware
C · #7
15
Pts
4
Reb
2
Ast
GS · top performer
Brandin Podziemski
G · #2
24
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 24pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.0
NBA · Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 18 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 4-4 | -24 | 5 | 1 | |
| 26 | 4 | 1-13 | 0-5 | 2-2 | -20 | 12 | 3 | |
| 30 | 21 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 5-6 | -6 | 3 | 3 | |
| 25 | 7 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | -17 | 6 | 3 | |
| 28 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 3-4 | -12 | 5 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 27 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | -20 | 8 | 2 | |
| 4 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-12 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 5 | 9 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 18 | 15 | 7-10 | 1-3 | — | -4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 8 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | — | -4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 112 | 39-99 | 13-45 | 21-24 | 54 | 30 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 17 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 5-5 | +9 | 3 | 4 | |
| 21 | 15 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 1-2 | +4 | 9 | 3 | |
| 28 | 19 | 6-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | +3 | 3 | 11 | |
| 29 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | +25 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | — | +19 | 3 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 7 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-2 | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-7 | — | +26 | 8 | 2 | |
| 23 | 16 | 6-9 | 4-7 | — | +6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 16 | 6 | 3-4 | — | — | +1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | +4 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | +4 | 0 | 3 | |
| 30 | 24 | 9-19 | 3-7 | 3-3 | +17 | 6 | 4 | |
| Team | 135 | 49-95 | 24-51 | 13-17 | 46 | 38 | ||
| DNP: J. Kuminga | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
52
30
Ast
38
Team stats
MIA
Away
Stat
GS
Home
39-99
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
49-95
39
FG %
52
13-45
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
24-51
21-24
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
13-17
30
Assists
38
19
Turnovers
13
Season series
Series tied 1-1
GS96@MIA110MIA112@GS135todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -5.5
Half-pt above key 5
Total
239.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIA+17037%GS-20567%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
5.5
0.0 since open
Total
239.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat MIA 135-112. B. Podziemski led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 31-19 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
GS vs MIA
Starters vs bench
production by unitMIAstarters 53% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST
GS 41
Bench(8)
53 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST
GS 43
GSstarters 51% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 22 REB · 27 AST
GS 70
Bench(8)
66 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST
GS 53
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactQuinten Post · shooting foul
Quinten Post · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)
Brandin Podziemski · misses driving floating jump shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 34 | 32 | 27 | 19 | 112 |
| GS | 36 | 34 | 34 | 31 | 135 |
Period scoring
MIA won 0 · GS won 4
Q1
Wiggins 11
III 13
Q2
Jr. 8
Post 18
Q3
Ware 7
Podziemski 43
Q4
Fontecchio 5
Podziemski 20
Shooting comparison
39%
39-99
FG
52%
49-95
29%
13-45
3PT
47%
24-51
88%
21-24
FT
76%
13-17
Play-by-play · 515 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 112·GS 135
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 112·GS 135
- Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIA 112·GS 135
- Q4·0.7
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 48-foot jump bank shot (Buddy Hield assists)
·
MIA 112·GS 135
- Q4·2.0
Keshad Johnson personal foul
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·2.0
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·6.0
Dru Smith misses 26-foot running jump shot
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·11.4
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·13.2
L.J. Cryer misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·32.4
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·34.9
Keshad Johnson misses 5-foot two point shot
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·44.7
L.J. Cryer makes 26-foot three pointer
MIA 112·GS 132
- Q4·1:04
Kasparas Jakucionis bad pass turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
·
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:07
Dru Smith defensive rebound
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:10
Pat Spencer misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:33
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:37
Myron Gardner misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:42
Malevy Leons out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·1:58
Myron Gardner makes 11-foot fade away jump shot (Nikola Jovic assists)
·
MIA 112·GS 129
- Q4·2:10
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Spencer assists)
·
MIA 110·GS 129
- Q4·2:25
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 110·GS 127
- Q4·2:25
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 109·GS 127
- Q4·2:25
Malevy Leons shooting foul
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·2:34
Dru Smith defensive rebound
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·2:38
L.J. Cryer misses 22-foot pullup jump shot
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·2:51
L.J. Cryer enters the game for Moses Moody
·
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·2:51
Malevy Leons enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
·
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·2:51
Myron Gardner personal foul
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·3:05
Myron Gardner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)
·
MIA 108·GS 127
- Q4·3:15
Keshad Johnson defensive rebound
MIA 105·GS 127
Betting line
GS -5.5·O/U 239.5·MIA +170/GS -205
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors held off Miami Heat, 135–112. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
GS -5.5 cashed (won by 23). Total cleared the 239.5 OVER by 7.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Stephen CurryGS · GUSG%31.597
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Jimmy Butler IIIGS · FDRIVES11.391
Bam AdebayoMIA · CCONT6.891
Norman PowellCHI · GUSG%26.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS20.4± 6.0high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Bobby PortisMIA6.2± 2.9high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Charles BasseyGS0.9± 1.1medium
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Stephen CurryGS1.3± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIA
league avg
GS
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
46.8%
FG%
47.0
46.2%
120.9
PPG
114.9
114.5
29.0
Assists / G
25.0
28.8
13.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.1