NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9PHI

IND

10-34

104113

PHI

23-18

NBAMon, Jan 19FinalSeriesPHI leads series 2-0VegasPHI -6.5

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

29.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 11pp · 4th Quarter · 9:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	35	24	9-21	4-8	2-4	-9	6	7
J. HuffC · #32	23	10	4-7	2-4	—	-11	6	1
A. NembhardG · #2	36	25	9-15	3-7	4-5	-10	2	5
A. NesmithG · #23	32	7	1-9	0-6	5-5	-10	11	1
J. FurphyG · #12	14	3	1-1	1-1	—	-5	3	1
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	7	0	0-1	—	—	-3	1	0
J. WalkerF · #5	22	8	4-6	0-1	—	-3	5	2
T. BradleyC · #13	18	8	4-5	—	—	+5	7	0
M. PotterC · #11	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	14	10	5-8	—	—	-1	0	3
B. SheppardG · #26	13	3	1-3	1-3	—	-1	1	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	25	6	2-8	2-4	—	+1	4	3
Team		104	40-84	13-34	11-14		46	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	24	11	4-6	0-1	3-5	-4	7	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	33	30	10-17	1-1	9-10	+3	9	4
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	35	18	8-14	2-3	0-2	+13	1	5
T. MaxeyG · #0	40	29	12-24	1-4	4-4	+16	4	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	11	3-9	0-3	5-9	+3	5	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	12	2	1-4	—	0-2	-9	1	0
J. WalkerF · #33	24	5	2-5	1-2	—	+13	6	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	15	2	1-2	—	—	+6	4	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	20	5	1-7	0-3	3-4	+8	3	1
J. McCainG · #20	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		113	42-88	5-17	24-36		40	22
DNP: A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

40-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-88

FG %

13-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-17

11-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-36

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 2-0

Dec 13

IND105@

PHI115

Jan 20

IND104@

PHI113today

Feb 25

PHI135@

IND114

Apr 10

PHI105@

IND94

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+21032%

PHI-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -6.5↗SpreadBet PHI -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat IND 113-104. T. Maxey paced them with 29 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. IND outscored the other side 25-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST

GS 45

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 18 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

PHIstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 92

Bench(6)

14 PTS · 14 REB · 1 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI2nd Quarter · 20.6 · 55-50

+9pp→ 48% WP

Tony Bradley · out of bounds bad pass turnover

IND4th Quarter · 9:19 · 88-86

+11pp→ 53% WP

Pascal Siakam · makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 8:41 · 88-88

+10pp→ 68% WP

Pascal Siakam · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	30	25	26	23	104
PHI	33	17	32	31	113

Period scoring

IND won 1 · PHI won 3

Siakam 9

Maxey 11

Jackson 6

Maxey 4

Huff 6

Embiid 11

Siakam 11

Maxey 14

IND

PHI

Shooting comparison

IND

PHI

48%

40-84

48%

42-88

38%

13-34

3PT

29%

5-17

79%

11-14

67%

24-36

Play-by-play · 472 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 104·PHI 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 104·PHI 113
Q4·13.2
shot clock turnover
IND 104·PHI 113
Q4·37.2
Jarace Walker makes 16-foot fade away jump shot
·
IND 104·PHI 113
Q4·47.1
Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 102·PHI 113
Q4·47.1
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Jay Huff
·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Pascal Siakam
· ·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Johnny Furphy enters the game for Quenton Jackson
· ·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Micah Potter enters the game for Aaron Nesmith
·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard
· ·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Justin Edwards enters the game for VJ Edgecombe
·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Jared McCain enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.
·
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 102·PHI 112
Q4·47.1
Aaron Nesmith personal take foul
IND 102·PHI 111
Q4·48.5
Jabari Walker defensive rebound
·
IND 102·PHI 111
Q4·50.5
Pascal Siakam misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 102·PHI 111
+0.6pp
Q4·55.5
Jay Huff enters the game for Tony Bradley
·
IND 102·PHI 111
Q4·55.5
Pacers Full timeout
IND 102·PHI 111
Q4·55.5
VJ Edgecombe traveling turnover
IND 102·PHI 111
Q4·1:18
Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
IND 102·PHI 111
−0.6pp
Q4·1:19
Andrew Nembhard offensive rebound
IND 99·PHI 111
Q4·1:22
Aaron Nesmith misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 99·PHI 111
Q4·1:25
Trendon Watford enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
IND 99·PHI 111
Q4·1:25
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 99·PHI 111
Q4·1:27
Pascal Siakam misses 27-foot three point jumper
IND 99·PHI 111
Q4·1:34
Joel Embiid makes 15-foot fade away jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)
·
IND 99·PHI 111
+0.5pp
Q4·1:52
Pascal Siakam makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)
·
IND 99·PHI 109
−0.5pp
Q4·1:52
Tyrese Maxey bad pass turnover (Aaron Nesmith steals)
·
IND 96·PHI 109
Q4·1:54
Aaron Nesmith bad pass turnover (Tyrese Maxey steals)
·
IND 96·PHI 109
Q4·1:57
Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound
IND 96·PHI 109

Betting line

PHI -6.5·O/U 230.5·IND +210/PHI -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Indiana Pacers, 113–104.

PHI -6.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Micah PotterIND
6.1± 4.5high
Pascal SiakamIND
6.1± 2.4high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Pascal SiakamIND
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

PHI

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

46.0%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR