NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DEN

WSH

10-31

115121

DEN

29-13

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasDEN -10.5

WSH · top performer

Kyshawn George

F · #18

25.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

33.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 46pp · 4th Quarter · 7:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #22	27	16	6-13	2-2	2-2	-9	7	4
K. GeorgeF · #18	32	29	10-20	5-8	4-5	-6	5	7
A. SarrC · #20	28	16	7-12	—	2-7	-8	8	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	39	13	5-14	3-8	—	-6	4	3
T. JohnsonG · #12	31	4	1-10	0-4	2-4	-8	2	1
Bench
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	20	14	5-6	—	4-9	+2	6	2
J. ChampagnieF · #9	26	13	6-11	0-3	1-1	+1	9	1
J. WatkinsG · #5	21	3	1-2	1-2	—	+3	5	1
W. RileyG · #27	16	7	3-8	0-3	1-1	+1	2	0
Team		115	44-96	11-30	16-29		48	20
DNP: A. Gill, M. Branham, AJ Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	32	8	3-8	1-3	1-2	+14	10	11
S. JonesF · #21	29	7	3-4	1-2	—	-6	3	0
J. MurrayG · #27	39	42	15-24	5-8	7-8	+5	3	6
J. PickettG · #24	22	5	2-7	1-6	—	+8	5	6
P. WatsonG · #8	35	21	8-14	1-2	4-8	+5	5	2
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	16	4	2-4	0-2	—	-8	6	2
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	36	30	10-18	5-11	5-5	0	2	0
B. BrownG · #11	25	4	2-5	0-1	—	+10	3	4
J. StrawtherG · #3	6	0	0-1	—	—	+2	1	0
Team		121	45-85	14-35	17-23		38	31
DNP: H. Tyson, D. Holmes II

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

44-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-85

FG %

11-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

16-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Jan 18

WSH115@

DEN121today

Jan 23

DEN107@

WSH97

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+37021%

DEN-48583%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -10.5↗SpreadBet DEN -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat WSH 121-115. J. Murray led the way with 42 points and 6 assists. DEN outscored the other side 38-29 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

37 PTS · 22 REB · 4 AST

GS 38

DENstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 11:45 · 86-85

+39pp→ 62% WP

Jamir Watkins · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 4:44 · 102-105

+23pp→ 70% WP

Jamal Murray · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

WSH4th Quarter · 7:58 · 96-95

+46pp→ 47% WP

Jamal Murray · blocks Kyshawn George 's 6-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	29	34	23	29	115
DEN	36	26	21	38	121

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · DEN won 2

George 7

Murray 22

Sarr 9

Murray 13

George 8

Watson 11

George 14

George 24

WSH

DEN

Shooting comparison

WSH

DEN

46%

44-96

53%

45-85

37%

11-30

3PT

40%

14-35

55%

16-29

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 115·DEN 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 115·DEN 121
Q4·0.1
Nuggets offensive team rebound
WSH 115·DEN 121
Q4·0.1
Bruce Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
WSH 115·DEN 121
Q4·8.5
Kyshawn George makes 27-foot three pointer
WSH 115·DEN 121
Q4·17.0
Peyton Watson out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 112·DEN 121
Q4·19.0
Bub Carrington bad pass turnover (Peyton Watson steals)
·
WSH 112·DEN 121
Q4·19.3
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 112·DEN 121
Q4·19.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 112·DEN 121
Q4·19.3
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 112·DEN 120
Q4·19.3
Kyshawn George personal take foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 112·DEN 119
+45pp
Q4·28.6
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
WSH 112·DEN 119
Q4·28.6
Tre Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper
·
WSH 112·DEN 119
+2pp
Q4·36.2
Aaron Gordon makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Bruce Brown assists)
·
WSH 112·DEN 119
+3pp
Q4·50.3
Kyshawn George makes driving layup
WSH 112·DEN 117
−2pp
Q4·59.2
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 110·DEN 117
−2pp
Q4·59.2
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 110·DEN 116
+0.5pp
Q4·59.2
Kyshawn George personal take foul
WSH 110·DEN 115
+4pp
Q4·1:03
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
WSH 110·DEN 115
+1pp
Q4·1:07
Bub Carrington misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 110·DEN 115
+4pp
Q4·1:11
Kyshawn George offensive rebound
WSH 110·DEN 115
−4pp
Q4·1:13
Kyshawn George misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 110·DEN 115
+4pp
Q4·1:25
Jamal Murray makes 19-foot fade away jump shot
WSH 110·DEN 115
−2pp
Q4·1:38
Khris Middleton personal foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·DEN 113
+10pp
Q4·1:56
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
WSH 110·DEN 113
+2pp
Q4·1:58
Kyshawn George misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·DEN 113
+6pp
Q4·2:12
Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
WSH 110·DEN 113
+17pp
Q4·2:33
Khris Middleton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
WSH 110·DEN 110
−16pp
Q4·2:57
Aaron Gordon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 107·DEN 110
+15pp
Q4·3:22
Kyshawn George makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
WSH 107·DEN 107
+7pp

Betting line

DEN -10.5·O/U 227.5·WSH +370/DEN -485

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Washington Wizards, 121–115.

WSH +10.5 cashed (DEN won by 6). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Marvin Bagley IIIDEN · F
TS%66.193
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH · F
CONT6.790
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

DEN

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR