NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3SA

MIN

27-16

123126

29-13

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriesMIN wins series 2-1VegasSA -4.5

MIN · top performer

Anthony Edwards

G · #5

38.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIN ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 88pp · 4th Quarter · 4.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	41	17	4-13	0-2	9-9	-4	10	1
J. McDanielsF · #3	41	23	7-14	1-2	8-9	-6	5	5
N. ReidC · #11	5	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	36	11	4-14	3-10	—	+7	5	3
A. EdwardsG · #5	40	55	19-33	9-16	8-10	+8	4	3
Bench
L. MillerF · #33	6	0	—	—	—	+1	1	1
J. BeringerF · #19	23	10	5-6	—	—	+9	8	3
M. ConleyG · #10	21	0	0-4	0-2	—	-1	2	3
J. ClarkG · #22	10	0	0-1	—	—	-10	3	2
J. JuzangG · #9	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-9	2	0
B. HylandG · #8	13	7	3-3	1-1	—	-10	1	1
Team		123	42-90	14-34	25-28		41	22
DNP: R. Gobert, R. Dillingham

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	29	8	3-7	2-6	—	-1	8	0
J. ChampagnieF · #30	32	7	3-7	1-5	0-2	+2	5	2
V. WembanyamaF · #1	31	39	12-23	4-9	11-14	+5	9	3
D. FoxG · #4	37	25	10-17	2-5	3-4	-8	3	12
S. CastleG · #5	28	8	2-8	2-4	2-6	+6	6	9
Bench
L. Waters IIIF · #43	6	2	1-1	—	—	-1	0	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	31	20	8-14	3-5	1-2	+7	1	2
C. BryantF · #11	6	0	—	—	—	+1	2	1
L. KornetC · #7	19	8	4-8	—	—	-1	6	2
D. HarperG · #2	21	9	4-9	1-4	—	+5	3	3
Team		126	47-94	15-38	17-28		43	35
DNP: K. Olynyk, H. Ingram, J. Sochan, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

Home

42-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-94

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-38

25-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-28

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

SA wins series 4-2

May 5

MIN104@

SA102

May 7

MIN95@

SA133

May 9

SA115@

MIN108

May 10

SA109@

MIN114

May 13

MIN97@

SA126

May 16

SA139@

MIN109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+16438%

SA-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -4.5↗SpreadBet SA -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat MIN 126-123. V. Wembanyama led the way with 39 points and 9 rebounds. SA outscored the other side 48-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs MIN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MINstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 24 REB · 12 AST

GS 80

Bench(6)

17 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 20

SAstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 31 REB · 26 AST

GS 73

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 37

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN4th Quarter · 1:03 · 119-118

+19pp→ 54% WP

Donte DiVincenzo · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Joan Beringer assists)

SA4th Quarter · 17.3 · 119-123

+21pp→ 88% WP

Keldon Johnson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)

SA4th Quarter · 4.0 · 123-125

+88pp→ 94% WP

Julian Champagnie de · fensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	22	22	40	39	123
SA	21	48	27	30	126

Period scoring

MIN won 3 · SA won 1

Edwards 11

Johnson 7

McDaniels 8

Wembanyama 20

Edwards 13

Fox 10

Edwards 26

Wembanyama 12

MIN

Shooting comparison

MIN

47%

42-90

50%

47-94

41%

14-34

3PT

39%

15-38

89%

25-28

61%

17-28

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIN 123·SA 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIN 123·SA 126
Q4·0.0
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MIN 123·SA 126
Q4·0.0
Anthony Edwards misses heave jump shot
MIN 123·SA 126
+2pp
Q4·1.3
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
MIN 123·SA 126
Q4·1.3
Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 123·SA 126
−2pp
Q4·1.3
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 123·SA 126
Q4·1.3
Anthony Edwards personal take foul
MIN 123·SA 125
+2pp
Q4·1.8
Victor Wembanyama offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 123·SA 125
+9pp
Q4·4.0
Julian Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 123·SA 125
−6pp
Q4·4.0
Harrison Barnes enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
MIN 123·SA 125
Q4·4.0
Spurs offensive team rebound
MIN 123·SA 125
−2pp
Q4·4.0
Julian Champagnie misses free throw 1 of 2
MIN 123·SA 125
−2pp
Q4·4.0
Mike Conley personal take foul
MIN 123·SA 125
+4pp
Q4·4.0
Julian Champagnie defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 123·SA 125
+88pp
Q4·5.8
Anthony Edwards misses free throw 2 of 2
MIN 123·SA 125
+4pp
Q4·5.8
Luke Kornet enters the game for Harrison Barnes
·
MIN 123·SA 125
Q4·5.8
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 123·SA 125
Q4·5.8
De'Aaron Fox personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 122·SA 125
−6pp
Q4·9.0
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIN 122·SA 125
−6pp
Q4·9.0
Mike Conley enters the game for Joan Beringer
·
MIN 122·SA 124
Q4·9.0
De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2
MIN 122·SA 124
+2pp
Q4·9.0
Jaden McDaniels personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 122·SA 123
−17pp
Q4·9.8
Joan Beringer enters the game for Mike Conley
·
MIN 122·SA 123
Q4·9.8
Spurs Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIN 122·SA 123
−42pp
Q4·11.8
Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mike Conley assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIN 122·SA 123
−18pp
Q4·15.8
Timberwolves defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
MIN 119·SA 123
−6pp
Q4·15.8
Victor Wembanyama misses technical free throw
MIN 119·SA 123
−2pp
Q4·15.8
Chris Finch technical foulBIG MOMENT
MIN 119·SA 123
+8pp
Q4·15.8
Timberwolves Full timeout
MIN 119·SA 123
+0.5pp

Betting line

SA -4.5·O/U 234.5·MIN +164/SA -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Minnesota Timberwolves, 126–123. Decided by 3.

MIN +4.5 cashed (SA won by 3). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Jaden McDanielsMIN
0.9± 0.4high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
1.3± 1.0high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIN

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.3%

47.6%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

116.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR