NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7PHX

PHX

25-17

10699

25-17

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-0VegasNY -1.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Miles McBride

G · #2

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 8:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	30	10	3-5	2-4	2-2	-14	5	2
D. BrooksF · #3	29	5	2-13	1-7	—	-14	6	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	25	14	5-8	—	4-6	-12	9	1
D. BookerG · #1	38	27	7-18	1-5	12-14	-3	4	4
C. GillespieG · #12	26	11	4-10	2-5	1-1	+8	3	6
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	1	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	22	2	1-3	—	—	+19	3	0
R. DunnF · #0	17	8	3-4	2-3	—	+23	3	2
G. AllenG · #8	27	16	4-14	4-13	4-4	+15	0	3
J. GoodwinG · #23	20	13	5-6	3-4	—	+18	3	3
Team		106	34-82	15-42	23-27		37	22
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, R. Fleming, N. Richards, K. Maluach

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	39	21	6-17	1-7	8-10	-4	8	5
M. DiawaraF · #51	12	3	1-4	1-4	—	+4	4	2
K. TownsC · #32	35	23	7-16	3-8	6-6	-5	11	2
M. BridgesG · #25	37	15	6-12	3-6	—	-6	3	1
M. McBrideG · #2	36	23	9-18	5-12	—	+6	2	5
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	9	0	—	—	—	+8	4	2
M. RobinsonC · #23	19	1	0-1	—	1-4	-5	10	2
J. ClarksonG · #00	22	6	2-8	1-4	1-2	-13	3	0
L. ShametG · #44	14	5	1-3	0-2	3-3	-2	1	0
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	0	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	17	2	1-3	0-1	—	-17	1	1
Team		99	33-82	14-44	19-25		47	20
DNP: P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

34-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-82

FG %

15-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-44

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-0

Jan 10

NY107@

PHX112

Jan 18

PHX106@

NY99today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-10551%

NY-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -1.5↗SpreadBet NY -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat NY 106-99. D. Booker paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. NY outscored the other side 27-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 49

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

NYstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 28 REB · 15 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

14 PTS · 19 REB · 5 AST

GS 9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 2:10 · 74-77

+12pp→ 35% WP

Tyler Kolek · bad pass turnover (Ryan Dunn steals)

NY4th Quarter · 8:50 · 85-84

+16pp→ 56% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · makes free throw 1 of 2

PHX4th Quarter · 7:52 · 90-87

+14pp→ 64% WP

Karl-Anthony Towns · misses 26-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	19	36	25	26	106
NY	27	29	21	22	99

Period scoring

PHX won 3 · NY won 1

Booker 7

Towns 7

Allen 11

Anunoby 11

Booker 7

McBride 9

Gillespie 8

Bridges 7

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

41%

34-82

40%

33-82

36%

15-42

3PT

32%

14-44

85%

23-27

76%

19-25

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 106·NY 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 106·NY 99
Q4·6.0
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 106·NY 99
Q4·8.7
OG Anunoby misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHX 106·NY 99
−1pp
Q4·19.1
Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 106·NY 99
+0.8pp
Q4·19.1
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 105·NY 99
Q4·19.1
Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 105·NY 99
Q4·19.1
Karl-Anthony Towns personal foul
PHX 104·NY 99
−3pp
Q4·24.3
Karl-Anthony Towns makes 1-foot driving dunk (OG Anunoby assists)
·
PHX 104·NY 99
+1pp
Q4·33.0
Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·34.9
Mark Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 104·NY 97
+2pp
Q4·34.9
Dillon Brooks enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·34.9
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·34.9
Mark Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·34.9
OG Anunoby shooting foul
PHX 104·NY 97
−1pp
Q4·53.1
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·53.1
Suns defensive team rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
−0.6pp
Q4·53.4
Karl-Anthony Towns misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHX 104·NY 97
−2pp
Q4·1:01
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·1:04
Royce O'Neale misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 104·NY 97
+2pp
Q4·1:08
OG Anunoby bad pass turnover (Royce O'Neale steals)
·
PHX 104·NY 97
−2pp
Q4·1:10
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
Q4·1:13
Dillon Brooks misses 19-foot step back jumpshot
PHX 104·NY 97
+1pp
Q4·1:31
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
PHX 104·NY 97
−0.7pp
Q4·1:34
Miles McBride misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 104·NY 97
−2pp
Q4·1:44
Mark Williams makes running layup
PHX 104·NY 97
−3pp
Q4·1:46
Royce O'Neale defensive rebound
PHX 102·NY 97
−1pp
Q4·1:49
Jordan Clarkson misses 22-foot jumper
PHX 102·NY 97
−5pp
Q4·2:05
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
PHX 102·NY 97
+1pp
Q4·2:08
Grayson Allen misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 102·NY 97
+3pp

Betting line

NY -1.5·O/U 224.5·PHX -105/NY -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into New York Knicks and beat them, 106–99.

PHX +1.5 cashed (NY lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Josh HartNY
4.6± 1.9high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Karl-Anthony TownsNY
0.9± 0.7high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.4

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR