NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+26BOS

BOS

26-15

132106

ATL

20-24

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -3.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

29.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 19pp · 1st Quarter · 10:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	30	30	10-21	10-21	—	+30	6	3
N. QuetaC · #88	24	14	5-7	—	4-5	+39	7	1
D. WhiteG · #9	25	7	3-4	1-2	—	+36	5	12
J. BrownG · #7	30	41	14-30	2-9	11-12	+36	6	2
B. ScheiermanG · #55	32	9	3-7	3-6	—	+2	7	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-12	1	0
A. WilliamsF · #77	12	3	—	—	3-4	-17	4	1
L. GarzaC · #52	12	4	2-3	0-1	0-1	+4	4	2
A. SimonsG · #4	24	14	5-10	4-8	—	+11	2	1
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	-12	3	0
J. WalshG · #27	11	0	0-1	0-1	—	+7	2	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	30	7	3-5	1-2	—	+6	8	0
Team		132	46-91	22-52	18-22		55	27
DNP: J. Minott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	21	8-14	3-6	2-2	-25	7	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	12	4-14	2-6	2-4	-30	8	5
C. McCollumG · #3	27	11	4-14	0-5	3-3	-26	7	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	29	18	6-16	4-9	2-2	-35	2	6
V. KrejciG · #27	19	3	1-6	1-4	—	-25	1	0
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	23	16	5-11	2-5	4-4	-9	7	1
M. GueyeF · #18	19	5	2-7	1-2	—	-7	7	3
A. NewellF · #14	9	10	4-7	1-2	1-1	+10	2	0
L. KennardG · #4	23	2	1-5	0-3	—	-13	4	1
K. WallaceG · #2	13	5	2-6	0-2	1-1	+6	2	2
R. DennisG · #0	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+12	0	4
C. HoustanG · #33	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	+12	0	0
Team		106	38-102	15-46	15-17		47	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

46-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-102

FG %

22-52

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-46

18-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Jan 18

BOS132@

ATL106today

Jan 29

ATL117@

BOS106

Mar 27

ATL102@

BOS109

Mar 30

BOS102@

ATL112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-16262%

ATL+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat ATL 132-106. J. Brown led the way with 41 points and 6 rebounds. BOS outscored the other side 52-28 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST

GS 93

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 24 REB · 5 AST

GS 24

ATLstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

41 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 10:37 · 0-2

+19pp→ 51% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · blocks Jaylen Brown 's 4-foot running layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	30	52	35	15	132
ATL	23	28	23	32	106

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · ATL won 1

Brown 18

Okongwu 8

Hauser 18

Kispert 6

Brown 12

Okongwu 18

Hauser 6

Scheierman 17

BOS

ATL

Shooting comparison

BOS

ATL

51%

46-91

37%

38-102

42%

22-52

3PT

33%

15-46

82%

18-22

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 481 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 132·ATL 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 132·ATL 106
Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
BOS 132·ATL 106
Q4·23.5
shot clock turnover
BOS 132·ATL 106
Q4·48.5
Caleb Houstan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
·
BOS 132·ATL 106
Q4·1:08
Baylor Scheierman out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 132·ATL 103
Q4·1:22
Keaton Wallace makes free throw 1 of 1
BOS 132·ATL 103
Q4·1:22
Hugo Gonzalez shooting foul
BOS 132·ATL 102
Q4·1:22
Keaton Wallace makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (RayJ Dennis assists)
·
BOS 132·ATL 102
Q4·1:33
Xavier Tillman lost ball turnover (Keaton Wallace steals)
·
BOS 132·ATL 100
Q4·1:54
Asa Newell makes free throw 1 of 1
BOS 132·ATL 100
Q4·1:54
Baylor Scheierman shooting foul
BOS 132·ATL 99
Q4·1:54
Asa Newell makes alley oop dunk (RayJ Dennis assists)
·
BOS 132·ATL 99
Q4·1:55
Baylor Scheierman lost ball turnover (RayJ Dennis steals)
·
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·1:56
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·2:00
Keaton Wallace misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·2:13
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·2:14
Amari Williams misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·2:14
Amari Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 132·ATL 97
Q4·2:14
Caleb Houstan shooting foul
BOS 131·ATL 97
Q4·2:14
Amari Williams offensive rebound
BOS 131·ATL 97
Q4·2:15
Hugo Gonzalez misses driving layup
BOS 131·ATL 97
Q4·2:35
Keaton Wallace makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (RayJ Dennis assists)
·
BOS 131·ATL 97
Q4·2:43
Amari Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 131·ATL 95
Q4·2:43
Amari Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 130·ATL 95
Q4·2:43
Asa Newell shooting foul
BOS 129·ATL 95
Q4·2:51
Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound
BOS 129·ATL 95
Q4·2:55
Asa Newell misses 24-foot three point jumper
BOS 129·ATL 95
Q4·3:04
Hugo Gonzalez out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 129·ATL 95
Q4·3:20
Asa Newell makes running dunk (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
BOS 129·ATL 95

Betting line

BOS -3.5·O/U 230.5·BOS -162/ATL +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 132–106. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -3.5 cashed (won by 26). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
CJ McCollumATL · G
DRIVES10.288

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

ATL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR