NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SAC

WSH

10-30

115128

SAC

12-30

NBAFri, Jan 16FinalSeriesSAC leads series 1-0VegasSAC -7.5

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Russell Westbrook

G · #18

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #9	27	15	7-11	1-3	—	-12	7	2
K. GeorgeF · #18	24	15	6-12	0-4	3-3	-12	8	3
A. SarrC · #20	28	19	8-12	—	3-4	-5	4	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	39	11	3-4	3-4	2-2	+2	2	9
T. JohnsonG · #12	30	18	7-17	4-8	—	-1	2	4
Bench
A. GillF · #16	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	19	8	1-5	0-1	6-8	-8	4	0
M. BranhamG · #8	13	13	6-9	1-2	—	+11	1	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	26	6	2-5	0-2	2-4	0	2	0
W. RileyG · #27	22	6	2-8	2-7	—	-18	1	2
AJ JohnsonG · #4	11	4	2-6	0-2	—	-22	3	0
Team		115	44-90	11-34	16-21		34	23
DNP: K. Middleton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	28	16	7-8	1-2	1-2	-2	6	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	22	4	2-5	—	0-2	-7	8	5
R. WestbrookG · #18	31	26	9-14	6-9	2-2	0	2	6
D. DeRozanG · #10	33	17	6-13	1-2	4-5	-7	2	4
Z. LaVineG · #8	32	16	6-12	3-6	1-2	+10	2	3
Bench
D. SabonisF · #11	21	13	5-6	0-1	3-5	+14	6	5
D. CardwellC · #32	19	8	4-5	—	—	+23	9	1
D. SchroderG · #17	20	15	4-6	2-3	5-8	+12	1	5
M. MonkG · #0	16	4	1-6	0-4	2-2	+3	2	3
N. CliffordG · #5	19	9	3-6	2-4	1-2	+19	7	3
Team		128	47-81	15-31	19-30		45	36
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

44-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-81

FG %

11-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-31

16-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SAC leads series 1-0

Jan 17

WSH115@

SAC128today

Feb 1

SAC112@

WSH116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SAC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+21532%

SAC-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SAC -7.5↗SpreadBet SAC -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat WSH 128-115. R. Westbrook paced them with 26 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. SAC outscored the other side 41-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST

GS 69

Bench(6)

37 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 18

SACstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 20 REB · 19 AST

GS 70

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH3rd Quarter · 9:03 · 69-72

+10pp→ 27% WP

Kyshawn George · makes free throw 1 of 1

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	22	39	23	31	115
SAC	41	26	34	27	128

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · SAC won 2

Sarr 7

Achiuwa 9

Sarr 11

III 8

Champagnie 7

Westbrook 9

Johnson 8

de 14

WSH

SAC

Shooting comparison

WSH

SAC

49%

44-90

58%

47-81

32%

11-34

3PT

48%

15-31

76%

16-21

63%

19-30

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 115·SAC 128
+2pp
Q4·9.0
shot clock turnover
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·33.4
Zach LaVine defensive rebound
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·33.4
Zach LaVine blocks AJ Johnson 's 6-foot driving layup
· ·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·36.5
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·39.8
Zach LaVine misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·54.9
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·58.8
Anthony Gill misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Anthony Gill enters the game for Alex Sarr
·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
AJ Johnson enters the game for Kyshawn George
· ·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Malaki Branham enters the game for Tre Johnson
· ·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Jamir Watkins enters the game for Justin Champagnie
·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Will Riley enters the game for Bub Carrington
·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Wizards Full timeout
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:05
Dylan Cardwell makes alley oop layup (DeMar DeRozan assists)
·
WSH 115·SAC 128
Q4·1:21
Tre Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk
·
WSH 115·SAC 126
Q4·1:24
Russell Westbrook bad pass turnover (Kyshawn George steals)
·
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·1:42
Wizards delay of game violation
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·1:42
Kings defensive team rebound
WSH 113·SAC 126
+2pp
Q4·1:42
Zach LaVine blocks Justin Champagnie 's 3-foot running jump shot
·
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·1:45
Kyshawn George defensive rebound
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·1:49
DeMar DeRozan misses 27-foot three point jumper
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·2:02
Zach LaVine defensive rebound
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·2:07
Bub Carrington misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 113·SAC 126
Q4·2:16
Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)
·
WSH 113·SAC 126
+0.9pp
Q4·2:24
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
WSH 113·SAC 123
+0.6pp
Q4·2:27
DeMar DeRozan misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
WSH 113·SAC 123
Q4·2:46
Kyshawn George makes free throw 1 of 1
WSH 113·SAC 123
+0.6pp
Q4·2:46
Dylan Cardwell enters the game for Maxime Raynaud
·
WSH 112·SAC 123

Betting line

SAC -7.5·O/U 234.5·WSH +215/SAC -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Washington Wizards, 128–115.

SAC -7.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Marvin Bagley IIIDEN · F
TS%66.193
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low

Assists

Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.3± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

SAC

53.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

112.9

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR