NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LAC

LAC

18-23

121117

TOR

25-18

NBAFri, Jan 16FinalSeriesLAC lead series 1-0VegasTOR -2.5

LAC · top performer

Jordan Miller

G · #22

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

TOR · top performer

Jamal Shead

G · #23

16.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ TOR

Biggest swing: 33pp · 4th Quarter · 21.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. BatumF · #33	6	0	0-2	0-1	—	-14	1	0
I. ZubacC · #40	39	16	7-10	—	2-3	+15	14	2
J. HardenG · #1	42	31	10-27	2-15	9-10	-3	2	10
K. DunnG · #8	34	15	4-6	3-4	4-4	+10	4	4
K. SandersG · #4	37	13	4-7	2-3	3-4	+6	3	0
Bench
B. LopezC · #11	13	3	1-4	1-3	—	-2	1	0
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	14	5	0-1	—	5-6	-14	2	0
J. MillerG · #22	46	19	8-11	3-5	—	+20	2	6
K. BrownG · #24	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+7	1	0
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	10	3	1-3	1-2	—	+2	1	2
C. ChristieG · #12	20	16	6-7	1-2	3-3	-7	5	1
Team		121	41-79	13-36	26-30		36	25
DNP: J. Collins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	41	19	7-13	2-4	3-3	0	6	2
S. BarnesF · #4	41	24	9-21	0-4	6-7	-18	7	6
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	35	11	4-9	0-1	3-5	-16	4	3
O. AgbajiG · #30	36	15	4-9	3-7	4-4	+1	3	1
J. SheadG · #23	39	15	4-11	2-6	5-6	+5	4	13
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	22	13	6-9	0-3	1-1	+13	2	1
A.J. LawsonG · #0	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-2	3	2
A. MartinG · #55	11	5	2-3	1-1	—	-5	0	1
G. DickG · #1	27	15	6-10	3-6	—	+2	7	1
Team		117	42-87	11-33	22-26		36	30
DNP: J. Mogbo, G. Temple, I. Quickley

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

41-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-87

FG %

13-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

26-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 1-0

Jan 17

LAC121@

TOR117today

Mar 26

TOR94@

LAC119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

213.5

Defensive · -12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC+11447%

TOR-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

213.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat TOR 121-117. J. Miller led with 19 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. LAC outscored the other side 31-20 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

TOR vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 43

TORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 24 REB · 25 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAC4th Quarter · 21.0 · 109-109

+33pp→ 54% WP

Ivica Zubac · vs. Scottie Barnes (James Harden gains possession)

LACOT · 4:36 · 109-109

+16pp→ 66% WP

Brandon Ingram · shooting foul

LACOT · 3:21 · 113-111

+15pp→ 70% WP

Scottie Barnes · misses free throw 1 of 1

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
LAC	24	28	26	31	12	121
TOR	32	29	28	20	8	117

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · TOR won 3

Harden 6

Shead 10

Christie 5

Barnes 8

Miller 8

Mamukelashvili 9

Zubac 10

Dick 5

Harden 8

Barnes 8

LAC

TOR

Shooting comparison

LAC

TOR

52%

41-79

48%

42-87

36%

13-36

3PT

33%

11-33

87%

26-30

85%

22-26

Play-by-play · 474 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
LAC 121·TOR 117
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
LAC 121·TOR 117
−0.9pp
OT·2.4
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 121·TOR 117
−0.9pp
OT·3.5
Jamal Shead misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 121·TOR 117
−5pp
OT·7.0
Gradey Dick enters the game for Ochai Agbaji
·
LAC 121·TOR 117
OT·7.0
Raptors Full timeout
LAC 121·TOR 117
OT·7.0
Kobe Sanders makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 121·TOR 117
+1pp
OT·7.0
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 120·TOR 117
+2pp
OT·7.0
Kobe Sanders misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 120·TOR 117
+2pp
OT·7.0
Brandon Ingram personal foul
LAC 120·TOR 117
−3pp
OT·22.2
Ochai Agbaji enters the game for Gradey Dick
·
LAC 120·TOR 117
OT·22.2
Scottie Barnes personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·TOR 117
−8pp
OT·23.0
Kris Dunn defensive rebound
LAC 120·TOR 117
−3pp
OT·25.5
Brandon Ingram misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·TOR 117
−11pp
OT·38.0
James Harden makes 11-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 120·TOR 117
−11pp
OT·54.9
Scottie Barnes makes two point shot (Brandon Ingram assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 118·TOR 117
+8pp
OT·1:01
Brandon Ingram defensive rebound
LAC 118·TOR 115
+3pp
OT·1:03
James Harden misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 115
+7pp
OT·1:24
Ivica Zubac defensive rebound
LAC 118·TOR 115
−3pp
OT·1:27
Scottie Barnes misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 115
−7pp
OT·1:35
Raptors defensive team rebound
LAC 118·TOR 115
+2pp
OT·1:37
James Harden misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 115
+7pp
OT·1:50
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 118·TOR 115
OT·1:59
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 115
−7pp
OT·1:59
Collin Murray-Boyles enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
LAC 118·TOR 114
OT·1:59
Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 118·TOR 114
+2pp
OT·1:59
James Harden shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 113
+12pp
OT·2:19
James Harden makes 18-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAC 118·TOR 113
−8pp
OT·2:52
Scottie Barnes makes 15-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 116·TOR 113
+5pp
OT·3:06
Jordan Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 116·TOR 111
−13pp

Betting line

TOR -2.5·O/U 213.5·LAC +114/TOR -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Toronto Raptors and beat them, 121–117 in overtime. Decided by 4.

LAC +2.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 213.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

TOR

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.5%

48.5%

FG%

47.0

48.1%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.3

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.2

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR