NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

24-19

117115

PHI

22-18

NBAFri, Jan 16FinalSeriesCLE leads series 3-0VegasPHI -2.5

CLE · top performer

Jaylon Tyson

G · #20

32.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 4.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	33	10	4-6	—	2-2	+5	7	1
E. MobleyC · #4	36	15	6-11	1-4	2-4	-12	5	4
D. MitchellG · #45	39	13	4-13	4-7	1-2	-2	9	12
J. TysonG · #20	38	39	13-17	7-9	6-6	+4	5	4
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	22	2	1-5	—	0-2	+12	3	11
Bench
D. HunterF · #12	31	16	7-13	2-5	—	+12	3	4
N. TomlinF · #35	18	9	4-9	0-2	1-1	-7	5	0
L. BallG · #2	12	0	0-3	0-2	—	-1	3	1
T. ProctorG · #24	11	13	5-8	3-5	—	-1	2	1
Team		117	44-85	17-34	12-17		42	38
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Bryant

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	30	14	6-12	2-6	—	+9	4	5
D. BarlowF · #25	17	2	1-3	—	—	+4	2	0
J. EmbiidC · #21	33	33	10-22	2-3	11-12	+9	5	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	39	22	9-23	2-8	2-2	-4	5	9
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	10	4-5	2-2	—	-6	4	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	10	4	2-2	—	—	+5	2	2
J. WalkerF · #33	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	2	0
A. BonaC · #30	15	4	2-3	—	—	-11	4	0
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	26	12	4-7	2-5	2-2	-7	2	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	32	14	5-12	2-7	2-3	-4	7	4
Team		115	43-91	12-32	17-19		37	28
DNP: J. Edwards, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon, J. McCain

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

44-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-91

FG %

17-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-32

12-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 3-0

Nov 6

PHI121@

CLE132

Jan 15

CLE133@

PHI107

Jan 17

CLE117@

PHI115today

Mar 9

PHI101@

CLE115

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE+11447%

PHI-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat PHI 117-115. J. Tyson led the way with 39 points and 5 rebounds. CLE outscored the other side 33-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 29 REB · 32 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 30

PHIstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 20 REB · 21 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 1:50 · 112-112

+26pp→ 64% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes free throw 1 of 2

CLE4th Quarter · 22.2 · 114-113

+24pp→ 78% WP

Evan Mobley · misses free throw 1 of 2

CLE4th Quarter · 4.8 · 117-115

+32pp→ 86% WP

Evan Mobley · makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	31	24	29	33	117
PHI	31	31	29	24	115

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · PHI won 1

Tyson 12

Embiid 13

Proctor 8

Grimes 7

Tyson 12

Embiid 12

Tyson 8

Maxey 8

CLE

PHI

Shooting comparison

CLE

PHI

52%

44-85

47%

43-91

50%

17-34

3PT

38%

12-32

71%

12-17

89%

17-19

Play-by-play · 447 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 117·PHI 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 117·PHI 115
−0.8pp
Q4·0.3
76ers offensive team rebound
CLE 117·PHI 115
Q4·0.3
Tyrese Maxey misses heave jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 117·PHI 115
−14pp
Q4·4.8
Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 117·PHI 115
−32pp
Q4·8.1
Lonzo Ball enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 115·PHI 115
Q4·8.1
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 115·PHI 115
Q4·8.1
Tyrese Maxey makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 115·PHI 115
+13pp
Q4·22.2
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 115·PHI 113
+1pp
Q4·22.2
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
+9pp
Q4·22.2
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
−24pp
Q4·22.2
(00:22.2) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [76ers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
+31pp
Q4·22.2
76ers Full timeout
CLE 114·PHI 113
Q4·22.2
Kelly Oubre Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
−20pp
Q4·23.8
Cavaliers offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
−11pp
Q4·24.8
Tyrese Maxey blocks Donovan Mitchell 's 7-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
CLE 114·PHI 113
+10pp
Q4·40.1
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
CLE 114·PHI 113
−3pp
Q4·42.4
Paul George misses 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 114·PHI 113
−7pp
Q4·1:05
De'Andre Hunter makes running layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 114·PHI 113
−9pp
Q4·1:13
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
CLE 112·PHI 113
−3pp
Q4·1:14
Kelly Oubre Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 113
−9pp
Q4·1:29
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
CLE 112·PHI 113
+3pp
Q4·1:31
Jaylon Tyson misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 113
+9pp
Q4·1:50
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 113
−9pp
Q4·1:50
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 112
+26pp
Q4·1:50
Paul George enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
CLE 112·PHI 111
Q4·1:50
(01:50) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 111
−24pp
Q4·1:50
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 112·PHI 111
Q4·1:50
Jarrett Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 112·PHI 111
+16pp
Q4·1:59
Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CLE 112·PHI 111
−17pp

Betting line

PHI -2.5·O/U 233.5·CLE +114/PHI -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 117–115. Decided by 2.

CLE +2.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high

Assists

James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
James HardenCLE
1.4± 1.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

PHI

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.3

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR