NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8IND

10-34

119127

IND

10-32

NBAFri, Jan 16FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasIND -4.5

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

24.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Jay Huff

C · #32

29.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 33.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	27	10-12	—	7-10	+3	6	7
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	38	22	7-21	5-14	3-4	+1	4	5
D. QueenC · #22	28	14	5-11	—	4-4	-2	12	3
S. BeyG · #41	32	20	6-10	2-3	6-8	0	4	1
J. FearsG · #0	31	16	5-9	2-4	4-4	+8	6	5
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	15	3	1-4	1-2	—	-11	2	0
Y. MissiC · #21	20	2	1-3	0-1	—	-6	3	0
J. PooleG · #3	17	11	4-7	3-4	—	-14	2	1
B. McGowensG · #11	16	4	2-3	0-1	—	-10	1	0
J. HawkinsG · #24	10	0	0-2	0-2	—	-9	2	0
Team		119	41-82	13-31	24-30		42	22
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, M. Peavy, T. Alexander

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	34	27	11-22	4-8	1-2	+11	6	5
J. HuffC · #32	29	29	13-17	3-6	—	+13	9	1
A. NembhardG · #2	33	19	7-13	2-6	3-3	+9	3	10
A. NesmithG · #23	33	12	5-13	2-8	0-1	-4	4	1
J. FurphyG · #12	29	7	3-8	1-4	—	+6	4	2
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	21	6	2-5	2-5	—	+2	1	3
T. BradleyC · #13	19	3	1-4	—	1-2	-5	9	3
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	8	4-8	0-1	—	+1	2	9
B. SheppardG · #26	15	4	1-4	1-4	1-2	-1	3	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	11	12	5-7	0-1	2-2	+8	2	1
Team		127	52-101	15-43	8-12		43	37
DNP: M. Potter, E. Thompson, K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

IND

Home

41-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

52-101

FG %

13-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-43

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 21

IND109@

NO128

Jan 17

NO119@

IND127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+16038%

IND-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -4.5↗SpreadBet IND -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat NO 127-119. J. Huff paced them with 29 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. IND outscored the other side 42-33 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST

GS 87

Bench(5)

20 PTS · 10 REB · 1 AST

GS 12

INDstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 17 REB · 18 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO1st Quarter · 33.3 · 33-28

+8pp→ 61% WP

T.J. McConnell · misses 13-foot two point shot

NO2nd Quarter · 6.2 · 65-71

+8pp→ 34% WP

Jay Huff · shooting foul

IND3rd Quarter · 3:46 · 87-92

+8pp→ 70% WP

Jarace Walker · makes 27-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	33	33	27	26	119
IND	31	42	29	25	127

Period scoring

NO won 2 · IND won 2

Williamson 11

Siakam 13

Williamson 10

Huff 12

III 9

McConnell 8

Bey 7

Nembhard 9

IND

Shooting comparison

IND

50%

41-82

51%

52-101

42%

13-31

3PT

35%

15-43

80%

24-30

67%

8-12

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 119·IND 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 119·IND 127
Q4·12.9
Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 119·IND 127
Q4·12.9
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 118·IND 127
Q4·12.9
Tony Bradley shooting foul
NO 117·IND 127
Q4·17.1
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 117·IND 127
Q4·19.5
Johnny Furphy misses 22-foot three point jumper
NO 117·IND 127
Q4·38.3
Saddiq Bey makes two point shot
NO 117·IND 127
Q4·45.1
Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Tony Bradley assists)
·
NO 115·IND 127
Q4·47.6
Tony Bradley offensive rebound
NO 115·IND 125
Q4·51.3
Pascal Siakam misses 25-foot three point jumper
NO 115·IND 125
Q4·1:11
Jeremiah Fears makes running layup (Zion Williamson assists)
·
NO 115·IND 125
Q4·1:14
Zion Williamson defensive rebound
NO 113·IND 125
Q4·1:15
Pascal Siakam misses free throw 1 of 1
NO 113·IND 125
Q4·1:15
Zion Williamson shooting foul
NO 113·IND 125
Q4·1:15
Pascal Siakam makes 8-foot jump bank shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)
·
NO 113·IND 125
Q4·1:23
Tony Bradley offensive rebound
NO 113·IND 123
+0.5pp
Q4·1:27
Johnny Furphy misses 24-foot three point jumper
NO 113·IND 123
Q4·1:48
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 113·IND 123
+0.5pp
Q4·1:48
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 112·IND 123
Q4·1:48
Johnny Furphy personal foul
NO 111·IND 123
−0.7pp
Q4·1:52
Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
NO 111·IND 123
Q4·1:56
Pascal Siakam misses 10-foot turnaround jump shot
NO 111·IND 123
Q4·2:12
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 111·IND 123
Q4·2:12
Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 110·IND 123
Q4·2:12
Johnny Furphy shooting foul
NO 109·IND 123
Q4·2:19
Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 109·IND 123
Q4·2:19
Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 109·IND 122
Q4·2:19
Zion Williamson personal foul
NO 109·IND 121
Q4·2:24
Trey Murphy III personal foul
NO 109·IND 121

Betting line

IND -4.5·O/U 241.5·NO +160/IND -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 127–119.

IND -4.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
DeAndre JordanNO
6.5± 4.6low

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

IND

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR