NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16POR

ATL

20-23

101117

POR

20-22

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesPOR leads series 1-0VegasATL -3.5

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

18.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Shaedon Sharpe

G · #17

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 11:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	37	26	10-21	5-15	1-1	-19	9	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	12	4-9	0-3	4-4	+3	11	6
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	29	11	2-6	2-4	5-6	-4	6	7
V. KrejciG · #27	21	8	3-5	2-4	—	+2	1	1
D. DanielsG · #5	33	10	5-9	—	—	-13	5	1
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	13	3	1-5	1-4	—	-7	2	0
M. GueyeF · #18	21	6	2-6	2-5	—	-16	3	2
C. McCollumG · #3	29	20	6-15	1-6	7-11	-2	3	4
L. KennardG · #4	19	5	2-5	1-3	—	-24	0	0
Team		101	35-81	14-44	17-22		40	23
DNP: A. Newell, Z. Risacher, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	38	11	5-15	1-9	—	-1	4	1
D. ClinganC · #23	28	9	3-8	0-3	3-7	-8	12	1
J. HolidayG · #5	21	12	5-11	1-4	1-2	+7	4	4
S. SharpeG · #17	33	24	8-15	2-5	6-6	0	9	5
S. CissokoG · #91	22	6	2-7	2-5	—	-4	3	1
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	23	16	4-9	1-4	7-9	+16	2	3
R. Williams IIIC · #35	20	6	3-4	—	—	+22	11	2
D. ReathC · #26	13	8	3-7	2-6	—	+20	3	0
C. LoveG · #2	26	12	5-12	2-6	—	+6	3	4
R. RupertG · #21	16	13	5-7	3-4	—	+22	3	2
Team		117	43-95	14-46	17-24		54	23
DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, Y. Hansen, M. Thybulle, S. Henderson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

POR

Home

35-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-95

FG %

14-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-46

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

POR leads series 1-0

Jan 16

ATL101@

POR117today

Mar 1

POR101@

ATL135

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-17063%

POR+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat ATL 117-101. S. Sharpe led with 24 PTS, 9 REB, 5 AST. POR outscored the other side 29-14 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 52

Bench(4)

34 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 22

PORstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 32 REB · 12 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 52

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 1:22 · 81-83

+9pp→ 55% WP

Caleb Love · makes 30-foot running jump shot (Rayan Rupert assists)

POR3rd Quarter · 0.0 · 87-88

+10pp→ 51% WP

Rayan Rupert · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)

POR4th Quarter · 11:41 · 87-91

+12pp→ 65% WP

Rayan Rupert · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	25	31	31	14	101
POR	33	21	34	29	117

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · POR won 3

Daniels 4

Sharpe 12

Okongwu 10

Sharpe 6

McCollum 7

Clingan 6

Okongwu 7

Grant 6

ATL

POR

Shooting comparison

ATL

POR

43%

35-81

45%

43-95

32%

14-44

3PT

30%

14-46

77%

17-22

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·1.9
shot clock turnover
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·25.9
Caleb Love enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·25.9
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·25.9
shot clock turnover
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·48.9
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·51.5
Onyeka Okongwu misses 26-foot three point jumper
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·1:00
Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
ATL 101·POR 117
Q4·1:14
Onyeka Okongwu makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)
·
ATL 101·POR 114
Q4·1:25
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 98·POR 114
Q4·1:25
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 98·POR 113
Q4·1:25
CJ McCollum shooting foul
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:39
Jerami Grant defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:41
Jalen Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:43
Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:47
CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:52
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·1:54
Jerami Grant misses 23-foot three point jumper
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:15
Jrue Holiday defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:17
Jalen Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:28
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:31
Donovan Clingan misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:31
Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 98·POR 112
Q4·2:31
Onyeka Okongwu shooting foul
ATL 98·POR 111
Q4·2:45
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 111
Q4·2:47
Onyeka Okongwu misses 25-foot running jump shot
ATL 98·POR 111
Q4·2:48
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 98·POR 111
Q4·2:51
CJ McCollum blocks Jrue Holiday 's 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
ATL 98·POR 111
Q4·3:14
shot clock turnover
ATL 98·POR 111

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 229.5·ATL -170/POR +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Atlanta Hawks, 117–101.

POR +3.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

POR

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.6

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR