NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13GS

25-16

113126

23-19

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasGS -7.5

NY · top performer

Miles McBride

G · #2

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Jimmy Butler III

F · #10

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 9:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	37	25	10-20	1-4	4-5	-6	4	1
K. TownsC · #32	31	17	6-14	2-4	3-4	+4	20	2
J. HartG · #3	37	5	1-7	0-2	3-4	-10	5	10
M. BridgesG · #25	35	21	9-11	3-4	—	-2	1	3
M. McBrideG · #2	37	25	9-16	6-12	1-1	-1	3	6
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-9	1	0
P. DadietF · #4	1	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
A. HukportiC · #55	10	1	—	—	1-2	-3	3	0
J. ClarksonG · #00	18	11	4-11	0-3	3-3	-18	2	1
L. ShametG · #44	16	6	2-7	2-7	—	-8	0	0
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	11	0	0-1	—	—	-12	2	5
Team		113	42-91	14-38	15-19		41	28

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Butler IIIF · #10	32	32	14-22	1-3	3-5	+15	8	4
D. GreenF · #23	27	6	1-4	1-4	3-3	+6	5	3
Q. PostC · #21	12	5	2-9	1-6	—	-4	2	0
S. CurryG · #30	34	27	10-17	4-9	3-3	+3	3	7
M. MoodyG · #4	28	21	7-10	7-9	—	+3	1	0
Bench
G. SantosF · #15	5	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	1	0
A. HorfordC · #20	21	5	2-5	1-2	—	+9	5	5
G. Payton IIG · #0	16	0	0-2	0-2	—	-2	6	3
D. MeltonG · #8	23	5	2-8	1-5	—	+17	2	2
P. SpencerG · #61	1	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	26	19	8-9	2-3	1-2	+22	5	2
W. RichardG · #3	15	3	1-1	1-1	—	-2	0	0
Team		126	48-89	20-45	10-13		38	26
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Kuminga, B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

42-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

14-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-45

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Jan 16

NY113@

GS126today

Mar 16

GS107@

NY110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+21532%

GS-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -7.5↗SpreadBet GS -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat NY 126-113. J. Butler III paced them with 32 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 37-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 82% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST

GS 79

Bench(8)

20 PTS · 8 REB · 6 AST

GS 12

GSstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST

GS 73

Bench(7)

35 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY4th Quarter · 9:28 · 93-102

+10pp→ 18% WP

OG Anunoby · makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot (Miles McBride assists)

GS4th Quarter · 9:28 · 94-102

+15pp→ 88% WP

OG Anunoby · makes free throw 1 of 1

GS4th Quarter · 8:07 · 94-107

+11pp→ 97% WP

Moses Moody · enters the game for Gary Payton II

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	35	24	28	26	113
GS	30	32	37	27	126

Period scoring

NY won 1 · GS won 3

Anunoby 9

Moody 9

Bridges 7

Podziemski 10

Bridges 9

Curry 10

Anunoby 12

Podziemski 9

Shooting comparison

46%

42-91

54%

48-89

37%

14-38

3PT

44%

20-45

79%

15-19

77%

10-13

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 113·GS 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 113·GS 126
Q4·19.4
Pacome Dadiet makes driving layup (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
NY 113·GS 126
Q4·22.0
Tyler Kolek defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 126
Q4·25.5
Quinten Post misses 23-foot three point jumper
NY 111·GS 126
Q4·37.0
Gary Payton II defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 126
Q4·37.0
Mohamed Diawara misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 111·GS 126
Q4·51.7
Brandin Podziemski makes running layup
NY 111·GS 126
Q4·54.0
Tyler Kolek bad pass turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·57.0
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:01
Pat Spencer misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Warriors defensive team rebound
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Stephen Curry blocks OG Anunoby 's 8-foot driving layup
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Pacome Dadiet enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Josh Hart
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Miles McBride
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Quinten Post enters the game for Draymond Green
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Will Richard enters the game for Stephen Curry
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Gary Payton II enters the game for Jimmy Butler III
·
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Pat Spencer enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
NY 111·GS 124
+0.7pp
Q4·1:16
(01:16) [Warriors] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Warriors] retain their timeout
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:16
Warriors Full timeout
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:25
Jimmy Butler III makes driving layup
NY 111·GS 124
Q4·1:39
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 122
Q4·1:42
Miles McBride misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 111·GS 122
Q4·1:50
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 122
Q4·1:52
De'Anthony Melton misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 111·GS 122
Q4·2:13
Draymond Green defensive rebound
NY 111·GS 122

Betting line

GS -7.5·O/U 228.5·NY +215/GS -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off New York Knicks, 126–113.

GS -7.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496
Karl-Anthony TownsNY · C
CONT7.693
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Karl-Anthony TownsNY
10.8± 3.1high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

27.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR