MIL
17-24
SA
28-13
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
21
Pts
5
Reb
1
Ast
SA · top performer
Stephon Castle
G · #5
19
Pts
1
Reb
10
Ast
Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 5:11
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 21 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 6-9 | -31 | 5 | 1 | |
| 23 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-5 | — | -23 | 3 | 3 | |
| 23 | 0 | 0-9 | 0-4 | — | -35 | 1 | 2 | |
| 15 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-3 | — | -25 | 0 | 1 | |
| 26 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | -18 | 7 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 13 | 5-8 | 3-5 | — | -15 | 6 | 3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +9 | 0 | 1 | |
| 21 | 18 | 6-17 | 5-13 | 1-1 | -5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 10 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | +15 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 10 | 7 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 3-4 | +15 | 2 | 0 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | — | -9 | 0 | 1 | |
| 10 | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 4-4 | +15 | 0 | 1 | |
| 14 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | — | +15 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 101 | 34-87 | 17-48 | 16-22 | 37 | 24 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 16 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | — | +25 | 0 | 3 | |
| 24 | 13 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 4-4 | +22 | 11 | 1 | |
| 22 | 22 | 7-12 | 5-6 | 3-3 | +27 | 10 | 1 | |
| 23 | 18 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 3-6 | +15 | 4 | 4 | |
| 26 | 19 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 6-6 | +36 | 1 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | -15 | 0 | 1 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | -2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 4-4 | +17 | 8 | 2 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -15 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -14 | 5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 10 | 5-5 | — | — | +8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | -15 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 13 | 6-13 | 0-5 | 1-2 | +1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Team | 119 | 40-79 | 16-37 | 23-27 | 50 | 28 | ||
| DNP: B. Biyombo | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
39
FG %
51
24
Ast
28
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
SA
Home
34-87
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-79
39
FG %
51
17-48
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-37
16-22
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
23-27
24
Assists
28
13
Turnovers
16
Season series
SA leads series 1-0
MIL101@SA119todaySA127@MIL95Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+19534%SA-23870%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
SA beat MIL 119-101. S. Castle led with 19 PTS, 1 REB, 10 AST. SA outscored the other side 40-16 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 38% of ptsStarters(5)
38 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST
GS 25
Bench(10)
63 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST
GS 45
SAstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST
GS 71
Bench(8)
41 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST
GS 29
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 27 | 26 | 16 | 32 | 101 |
| SA | 31 | 35 | 40 | 13 | 119 |
Period scoring
MIL won 1 · SA won 3
Q1
Antetokounmpo 14
Fox 12
Q2
Kuzma 9
Wembanyama 11
Q3
Antetokounmpo 5
Wembanyama 11
Q4
Coffey 7
Olynyk 4
Shooting comparison
39%
34-87
FG
51%
40-79
35%
17-48
3PT
43%
16-37
73%
16-22
FT
85%
23-27
Play-by-play · 468 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 101·SA 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 101·SA 119
- Q4·1.6
Kelly Olynyk defensive goaltending violation
MIL 101·SA 119
- Q4·2.0
Cole Anthony makes 29-foot three pointer
MIL 101·SA 119
- Q4·23.4
Bucks defensive team rebound
MIL 98·SA 119
- Q4·23.4
Cole Anthony blocks Jordan McLaughlin's running layup
·
MIL 98·SA 119
- Q4·27.1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo lost ball turnover (Jordan McLaughlin steals)
· ·
MIL 98·SA 119
- Q4·45.1
Jeremy Sochan makes 6-foot layup (Kelly Olynyk assists)
·
MIL 98·SA 119
- Q4·56.8
Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:01
Cole Anthony misses two point shot
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:07
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:11
Amir Coffey misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:26
Amir Coffey defensive rebound
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:30
Carter Bryant misses two point shot
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:34
Cole Anthony bad pass turnover (Carter Bryant steals)
·
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·1:50
Lindy Waters III out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·2:04
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
· ·
MIL 98·SA 117
- Q4·2:26
Jordan McLaughlin traveling turnover
MIL 95·SA 117
- Q4·2:26
Carter Bryant offensive rebound
MIL 95·SA 117
- Q4·2:29
Jeremy Sochan misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 95·SA 117
- Q4·2:39
Thanasis Antetokounmpo makes running dunk (Jericho Sims assists)
· ·
MIL 95·SA 117
- Q4·2:42
Jordan McLaughlin bad pass turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
· ·
MIL 93·SA 117
- Q4·2:45
Jericho Sims personal foul
MIL 93·SA 117
- Q4·2:51
Jericho Sims makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 93·SA 117
- Q4·2:51
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 92·SA 117
- Q4·2:51
Jericho Sims misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 92·SA 117
- Q4·2:51
Kelly Olynyk shooting foul
MIL 92·SA 117
- Q4·2:54
Jericho Sims offensive rebound
MIL 92·SA 117
- Q4·2:58
Amir Coffey misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 92·SA 117
- Q4·3:11
Cole Anthony defensive rebound
MIL 92·SA 117
Betting line
SA -7.5·O/U 225.5·MIL +195/SA -238
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Milwaukee Bucks, 119–101.
SA -7.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 5.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Victor WembanyamaSA · FCONT11.999+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · GDRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.898
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SA vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL17.3± 8.6high
Rebounds
- Tobias HarrisSA6.4± 1.8high
- Julian ChampagnieSA5.6± 2.5high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.1± 2.3high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- De'Aaron FoxSA6.1± 1.3high
- Stephon CastleSA6.1± 1.7high
Blocks
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL0.6± 0.7high
- Julian ChampagnieSA0.6± 0.7high
- Tobias HarrisSA0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.4± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
SA
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.3%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶118.2
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.3
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8